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Hardball Times: Forecasting Major League Hitting with Minor League Stats


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I looked exclusively at minor league hitters and estimated the probability they would play in the majors. This time around, I?ve expanded the system to slap a probability on a wider variety of outcomes?namely WAR thresholds?that a player might achieve through age 28.
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Orioles prospects by probability of having >4 career WAR

Chance Sisco (34%)

Josh Hart (14%)

Christian Walker (12%)

Jonah Heim (11%)

Adrian Marin (9%)

Alex Murphy (7%)

Mike Yastrzemski (5%)

Dariel Alvarez (5%)

Glynn Davis (3%)

Drew Dosch (3%)

Trey Mancini (2%)

I found this fascinating. Thanks for posting. If you take these numbers as gospel, there's about a 2/3 chance that the Orioles get at least one >4 career WAR player out of this group.

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