Showalter to meet with Rasmus

[hoosiers]

I find your posts in this thread to be suggesting paralysis by analysis. Let's just use some common sense.

I am just making a suggestion regarding the research an agent might due on behalf of a player choosing between two cities (just as you or I would choose between different job offers in different cities). I expect a player might actually receive a report or at least have the following topics to review with his agent:

1) opportunity to play and $

2) affect of ballpark on player's stats

3) intended use of play for Rasmus - possible position in lineup (replace Markakis as leadoff for example) and in field (center versus corner and which Rasmus prefers), amount of time expected to DH

4) other players in the OF

5) competitiveness of team

6) manager

7) possibility of longer term fit with team

8) home city

I expect there are other factors (friends on one of the teams) and I am hardly expecting anyone to do extensive research on this, but I don't think this is so complicated and I apologize if that is the perception. I did advance the idea that maybe it is a little more involved than "Hmmm .... manager, ballpark, I'll be in Baltimore".

And I don't think this is so much different of a thought process than someone deciding between two accounting jobs in two different cities. As I said, I hope a majority of the factors point to Bmore for Rasmus and most players.

FWIW, we do have an agent on this site and we can ask him.

[hoosiers]

Regarding the park data, it can be difficult to find. OPACY appeared to be the better hitters park overall around 2009, but I think that gap has narrowed over the years to the point where what is true for the overall data in 2014 is not true for left-handed hitters.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2022901-ranking-mlbs-most-hitter-friendly-ballparks-by-the-numbers

[mdbdotcom]

Colby Rasmus

Career OPS at OPACY in 25 games: .754

Career OPS at the Trop in 30 games: .709

So far, OPACY has been the better hitter's park for him. Since he's played a good bit in each park, I don't know why he would need additional data to make a decision about which he prefers. I'm not saying that OPS is all he needs - maybe he really like the water fountains at the Trop - but he's certainly played enough in both ballparks to know which one he'd rather play 81 games in next season.

[Guest]

Colby Rasmus

Career OPS at OPACY in 25 games: .754

Career OPS at the Trop in 30 games: .709

So far, OPACY has been the better hitter's park for him. Since he's played a good bit in each park, I don't know why he would need additional data to make a decision about which he prefers. I'm not saying that OPS is all he needs - maybe he really like the water fountains at the Trop - but he's certainly played enough in both ballparks to know which one he'd rather play 81 games in next season.

Rays starters >>>> Orioles Starters has to come into play here too.

[Il BuonO]

Regarding the park data, it can be difficult to find. OPACY appeared to be the better hitters park overall around 2009, but I think that gap has narrowed over the years to the point where what is true for the overall data in 2014 is not true for left-handed hitters.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2022901-ranking-mlbs-most-hitter-friendly-ballparks-by-the-numbers

Someone better than me at sifting through the data can probably do a comparison of the two places that better shows the true results for HRs to right and LF.

However, even in the BR piece there's compelling evidence OPACY is the preferred place for hitters.

"With its inviting short porches down the lines and a power alley in left field that makes right-handed sluggers drool (both of Nelson Cruz's home runs in 2014 have come at home), no other ballpark in baseball saw more balls fly over the outfield walls from 2012 to 2013 than Camden Yards, which holds a commanding 40-home-run lead over Toronto's Rogers Centre (458-418).

It should come as no surprise, then, that the Orioles have hit more combined home runs (426) than any other team over that two-year span, with more than 65 percent of those coming at home."

[mdbdotcom]

Rays starters >>>> Orioles Starters has to come into play here too.

True. The point I was trying to make is that he knows where he feels more comfortable hitting, whether or not the results play any role in that feeling.

[MASNPalmer]

Statcorner provides park factor splits for both LH and RH batters. Using HR as a gauge of power friendliness, OPAC scored a 128 from last season, while the Trop's score is 85 for left handed batters. For those not familiar with the site, 100 is seen as an average score; hence, a 128 score indicates that LH hit 128% more HR than average at OPAC compared to a neutral stadium.

That should help settle the OPAC vs Tropicana debate. FWIW, the site provides a lot of interesting stadium analytics. For example, while everyone always assumes that Safeco is a huge ballpark (and it is), it actually plays slightly favorable to LH (102) vs RH (88).

[Il BuonO]

He probably doesn't even know the name of the guy managing the Rays.

Everybody knows who Buck is.

[Oriole1940]

I doubt he signs with the Rays, however, since the vast majority of a ball players time is spent outside the Lines, maybe would prefer the weather in Florida, to live there. Especially if he is from the South. Only time will tell.

[El Gordo]

I doubt he signs with the Rays, however, since the vast majority of a ball players time is spent outside the Lines, maybe would prefer the weather in Florida, to live there. Especially if he is from the South. Only time will tell.

I'd rather live in Tampa than B'more if I had my druthers, but after that:

1) opportunity to play and $ BAL for play $-?

2) affect of ballpark on player's stats, BAL

3) intended use of play for Rasmus - possible position in lineup (replace Markakis as leadoff for example) and in field (center versus corner and which Rasmus prefers), amount of time expected to DH. Would start in RF for the O's, be lucky to start at all in TB.

4) other players in the OF. All 3 starters better than him in TB, only Pearce and AJ decidedly better in B'more.

5) competitiveness of team, BAL

6) manager, BAL

7) possibility of longer term fit with team Neither

8) home city TB for living, BAL for fans.

If I where him given comparable pay I'd take BAL hands down.

[scOtt]

My input:

1. I don't find the BA data useful, since the data is impacted hugely by whether the home team for that ballpark has a good pitching staff or not, and whether there are a lot of good lefties on that pitching staff.

2. The other data is good, though I think it's been shown that one-year park data isn't as reliable as data developed over several years.

All that said, I certainly think OPACY is a better place to hit than the Trop.

Just to throw a monkey into the wrench... There's never a strong wind blowing in at the Trop.

Of course there's never a HOT, HUMID summer night there either...

[scOtt]

True and you'll make yourself crazy trying to figure it out. I don't think Colby Rasmus is checking the cost of living of Tampa vs Baltimore or the crime rates or the home run factors down to the 100th decimal point. I think he wants to go somewhere he'll enjoy playing, get paid well (all things being equal), and set himself up for a nice payday next offseason. We have a nicer ballpark. Our team was more successful last year. Our manager went to have a face to face with Rasmus. He has a full time job waiting for him in RF.

I think that's one of the biggest factors. Show a player you want him. It equates to TWTW and lineup protection and veteranosity but I still think showing that interest in a player makes a big difference. All other factors being equal, park, contending team, money, etc. I think the pursuit makes the difference. "They wanted me here."

[scOtt]

I doubt he signs with the Rays, however, since the vast majority of a ball players time is spent outside the Lines, maybe would prefer the weather in Florida, to live there. Especially if he is from the South. Only time will tell.

[Frobby]

I think that's one of the biggest factors. Show a player you want him. It equates to TWTW and lineup protection and veteranosity but I still think showing that interest in a player makes a big difference. All other factors being equal, park, contending team, money, etc. I think the pursuit makes the difference. "They wanted me here."

But do they? Pretty much radio silence from the O's on this for the last 72 hours. It doesn't seem like the O's are falling all over themselves to get a deal done. Buck's visit may have been because he needs some convincing, not because the O's want Rasmus that badly. The press certainly painted it that way, and the silence from the O's since then only reinforces that impression.

[weams]

But do they? Pretty much radio silence from the O's on this for the last 72 hours. It doesn't seem like the O's are falling all over themselves to get a deal done. Buck's visit may have been because he needs some convincing, not because the O's want Rasmus that badly. The press certainly painted it that way, and the silence from the O's since then only reinforces that impression.

I think a deal will still occur. On Orioles terms. But I've seen nothing to support that.