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Camden Depot: Orioles Offense


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http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2015/01/os-offense-isnt-as-bad-as-you-might.html

Lineup construction doesn't matter all that much over the course of an entire season -- at least to the extent that many fans argue about it. (I'm also guilty of this at times.) Every run counts, but lineup order doesn't affect run expectancy much. So, sure, the leadoff spot is somewhat of a question mark, but what that really means is that on-base percentage and speed, to a lesser extent, are areas of concern. Last season, the Orioles were tied for 17th in OBP (.311), and they'll obviously be without the services of Nelson Cruz and Markakis going forward. They also weren't a base-stealing team at all; in fact, they were last in the majors in steals (44), 12 behind the Giants.

Still, even without Cruz and Markakis, the Orioles have a starting lineup of mostly average to above average hitters. Assuming a healthy team, the only potentially disastrous spot could be Jonathan Schoop at second base, but Schoop is also just 23 and could take a step or two forward next season

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Orioles are one of the 9 teams

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>What are the 9 teams where <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/phillies?src=hash">#phillies</a> Ryan Howard can be traded without his consent? Here's the list: <a href="http://t.co/oPSyf0AdQS">http://t.co/oPSyf0AdQS</a></p>— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) <a href="

">January 6, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

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Right now I see our offense as league average. I don't think any acquisitions that are currently under discussion or debate will change my prognosis. We're not going to be elite, and we're not going to be awful. We'll be somewhere within 30 runs of the league average, depending on injuries and who has a good/bad year.

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Right now I see our offense as league average. I don't think any acquisitions that are currently under discussion or debate will change my prognosis. We're not going to be elite, and we're not going to be awful. We'll be somewhere within 30 runs of the league average, depending on injuries and who has a good/bad year.
...which is consistent with last year -- while Baltimore was 6th in the AL in runs scored, they were a little above league average (+28).

I still think they need a viable LH bat that can DH at some point, but it could be during the season.

Yeah, right now I think matching last year's performance is about their ceiling. Having Manny and Wieters back will be good, but I'm sure there will be other injuries. Our returning players have some upside, but replacing Cruz's 2014 performance is difficult.

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I think matching last year's offense, hopefully having better and healthy defense and a similar pitching staff (without the bad Ubaldo) and a good bp, puts our team in a pretty competitive place - one that I believe our GM is comfortable entering the season.

It is really upon the rest of the division to show how much they have improved and reach where we are.

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If the O's could get Howard at little cost financially and at prospect cost that was say a B level prospect then perhaps it would be worth a look.

Problem is I think the Philloes would want someone in our top 8 or so prospects if they layong out all that cash. I would rather not give up young talent for an aging slugger whom we have no idea if there much left in the tank

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If the O's could get Howard at little cost financially and at prospect cost that was say a B level prospect then perhaps it would be worth a look.

Problem is I think the Philloes would want someone in our top 8 or so prospects if they layong out all that cash. I would rather not give up young talent for an aging slugger whom we have no idea if there much left in the tank

I think we have a pretty good idea of what Howard has left in the tank, and it isn't pretty.

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Yeah. If the Phillies said they would pay 100% of his contract and we didn't have to give them anything, you'd still have to think about it. It could still be a bad move.

This. If I was getting Howard for free, I still don't think I'd give him a major league deal.

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