Biggio, Smoltz, Martinez, Johnson - HOF

[OFFNY]

o

Pedro Martinez is the first Baseball Hall-of-Famer ever ..........

........ to be born in the 1970's (October 25th, 1971.)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof.shtml

[Can_of_corn]

He'll lose some votes because he didn't have another six years of 56-60 with a 100 ERA+.

That is why I said he has a chance instead of saying he will be voted in.

[Luper2207]

I have ranted about Mussina and the HOF before but I cant fine the thread so here it goes again......

It is ridiculous that Tom Glavine got in on his first try and mussina is not even close......

Mussina's numbers Glavines numbers:

ERA: 3.68 ERA: 3.54

Fip: 3.57 FIP: 3.95

WINS/LOSSES: 270/153 WINS/LOSSES: 303/203

INNINGS: 3562.66 INNINGS: 4413.33

STRIKEOUTS/BB'S: 2813/785 STRIKEOUTS/BBS: 2607/1500

WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.31

WAR Fangraphs: 82.5 War Fangraphs: 64.3

War baseball ref: 82.7 War baseball ref: 74

Mussina went thru the American league east during the steroid era. He has 206 more strikeouts in 850 less innings. It seems the HOF voters would have wanted him to hang around and win 33 more games and lose 50.

[Frobby]

That is why I said he has a chance instead of saying he will be voted in.

It's interesting to see that Halladay only pitched 8 seasons in which he qualified for the ERA title. In those 8, he averaged 240 innings a season, and was never below 220 IP. He was in the top 5 in the Cy Young voting in 7 of those 8 years. The year he didn't get any Cy Young votes was his first great season, 2002. He actually led all pitchers in rWAR that year but somehow didn't get a single Cy Young vote.

[Can_of_corn]

It's pretty obvious that Schilling will get in before Mussina does, if either of them ever gets in. Having Johnson, Pedro and Smoltz cleared away helps. There are no new top-level starting pitchers eligible for a few years now. Andy Pettitte becomes eligible four years from now. Until him, nobody, and nobody for a few years after him, either. By the way, if Pettitte gets in and Mussina doesn't, I'll barf.

Back to Pettitte again for a second. How can anyone who isn't voting for the PED crowd vote for Pettitte?

[Can_of_corn]

It's interesting to see that Halladay only pitched 8 seasons in which he qualified for the ERA title. In those 8, he averaged 240 innings a season, and was never below 220 IP. He was in the top 5 in the Cy Young voting in 7 of those 8 years. The year he didn't get any Cy Young votes was his first great season, 2002. He actually led all pitchers in rWAR that year but somehow didn't get a single Cy Young vote.

His will be an interesting case.

[Frobby]

I have ranted about Mussina and the HOF before but I cant fine the thread so here it goes again......

It is ridiculous that Tom Glavine got in on his first try and mussina is not even close......

Mussina's numbers Glavines numbers:

ERA: 3.68 ERA: 3.54

Fip: 3.57 FIP: 3.95

WINS/LOSSES: 270/153 WINS/LOSSES: 303/203

INNINGS: 3562.66 INNINGS: 4413.33

STRIKEOUTS/BB'S: 2813/785 STRIKEOUTS/BBS: 2607/1500

WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.31

WAR Fangraphs: 82.5 War Fangraphs: 64.3

War baseball ref: 82.7 War baseball ref: 74

Mussina went thru the American league east during the steroid era. He has 206 more strikeouts in 850 less innings. It seems the HOF voters would have wanted him to hang around and win 33 more games and lose 50.

I think it boils down to a few things:

1. 300 wins is still an automatic ticket.

2. Raw ERA was better; most voters aren't into stats like ERA+ (and certainly not FIP, which I'd argue shouldn't be used for HOF purposes anyway).

3. More 20-win seasons (5 to 1) and two Cy Young awards.

4. The perception that he, Maddux and Smoltz were the core of a team that went to the playoffs 11 years in a row while he was there (excluding the strike year when there were no playoffs).

[Moose Milligan]

First of all, I'm wondering how many Mussina supporters around here will backtrack if/when he goes into the HoF with a NY on his plaque

Second, congrats to Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz and Biggio. All very deserving.

Third, I hate the BBWAA or whatever. I believe a lot of them deserve to be punched directly in the dick.

I've come around on Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, etc. The PED crowd.

On Bonds and Clemens, specifically, these guys were Hall of Famers before they started juicing. Bonds was a top 10, arguably a top 5 all time player before he started getting bigger and hitting more homers than ever before. Clemens was a HoF pitcher, one of the best righties since WW2. 1984-1994 he averaged 16-8 with a 2.93 ERA. 172 wins agains 93 losses.

IIRC, these guys started juicing when there wasn't steroid testing or steroid penalties in place. Sure, it gave these guys an advantage but Bonds was hitting off juiced pitchers, Clemens was throwing to juiced batters.

Baseball gets romanticized more than any other sport in this country. People love to wax poetically about their dad taking them to Yankee Stadium, seeing Mickey Mantle and walking out through the centerfield gate (looking at you, Billy Crystal :rolleyestf:) or how they got an autograph from one of their heroes, or some story that is seen through amber colored glasses. Back in the good old days where you could sit in the bleachers for a few bucks and life was carefree! Baseball writers LOVE doing this.

But baseball, probably more than any other popular USA sport has had its share of issues in its past. As much as the history of the game is about Bobby Thompson, Bill Mazerowski, Hank Aaron, Cal Ripken and all of those incredible moments, it's also just as much about The Black Sox, not allowing black players to play until 1947, collusion in the mid 80's, the Pittsburgh cocaine trials, work stoppages, Pete Rose and juiced up players. I'm probably forgetting some issues but those are the ones that come to mind immediately.

These are the same writers that were bloviating at length and completely on their knees for the exploits of McGwire, Bonds, Sosa and Clemens in the 90's and early 00's. This is the same group of two faced idiots that were dishing out MVP votes for these players and talking about how great they were and how lucky we were to be seeing them. "Hey little Johnny! When you're watching Bonds, this is like watching Babe Ruth!" "Hey Timmy, watching a Roger Clemens start is like watching Walter Johnson!"

And there was money to be made, everyone at that time had their hands in the pot. MLB, the teams, the writers, everyone. EVERYONE profited off that entire era either from a direct financial perspective or gaining notoriety for their coverage of McGwire/Sosa, Bonds or Clemens. And everyone turned a blind eye to the issue, the money was flying in! Home runs were leaving the park at an astonishing rate! Baseball had made an awesome recovery from the '94 strike and was THRIVING. I'm firmly convinced that EVERYONE knew that PED's were going on and that everyone was having such a good time that no one wanted to blow a whistle. Why should have anyone wanted to ruin that great '98 chase? Remember how that one reporter who asked what that bottle was in McGwires locker got absolutely CRUCIFIED?

I remember, very clearly....4th grade, 1990, school bus, talking about the World Series with friends. A's/Reds. Making jokes and talking about steroids with friends and how Canseco was probably on them. Because that was the first time I ever found out about them and what they did, the older kids knew and were telling us about them.

So if it's that obvious to a group of 4th, 5th and 6th graders that grown adults don't get that big naturally, it has to be obvious to everyone else. Guys just don't get bigger heads and bigger shoe sizes. People in their late 30's don't pack on that much muscle without help. Anyone who has spent a few days in a gym or has done any bit of reading on the subject will tell you the same thing. I guarantee you there's only one or two guys at your gym that are as big as McGwire and when you look at them you just know it's not real.

So what do they do the minute it comes to light that this isn't quuuuuuite as pure and as innocent as Billy Crystal's memories of watching The Mick (a drunk or hungover Mick, probably) at Yankee Stadium in the 50's? What do they do when they find out that these memories aren't being made through good old American sweat and determination but through vials and needles of multi syllabic chemicals that they can't pronounce and sound scary? What do they do when cheating in baseball isn't all of a sudden colorful Gaylord Perry scuffing the ball, but is masterminded by some shady characters who (get a load of THIS!!!) aren't real doctors???? ZZZZZOMFGZ. THEY AREN'T EVEN REAL DOCTORS ONE OF THEM WAS A BASSIST IN A FUNK BAND!! HOW CAN SOMEONE WHO WAS IN A FUNK BAND IN THE 70'S BE THE ONE WHO IS HELPING BONDS BREAK RECORDS??!?!??! IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE AHHHHHHHH

What do they do? They turn. Yep, the very same people that were completely on their knees for these guys are all of a sudden judge, jury and executioner. I would absolutely love to know the breakdown of these writers who gave Bonds and Sosa MVP votes, who gave Clemens Cy Young votes, who did all they could to add to the legacy of these players....and then not vote for them for the HoF because, well, they weren't exactly clean.

IMO, the writers are the bad guys here and no one ever points the finger at them. Because, hey, baseball is just as American as apple pie. Baseball is all about those Sunday afternoons with dad drinking lemonade and listening to the game on the radio. Baseball isn't about the Black Sox, cocaine trials, collusion, work stoppages, Pete Rose (though we'll gladly take some of his game worn uniforms in our sacred Hall, he's not allowed to be inducted) and juiced players.

Look over here, not over there.

[TonySoprano]

Will they again they blow the minds of the MLB Network analysts and pick another 4 in 2016, and if so, who will be elected? Two of the four would be Jr. Griffey and Piazza. The all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman should get a lot of support considering Dennis Eckersley was a first ballot selection in 2004. Schilling and Mussina won't make that big of a leap. Trammel and McGwire will drop off the ballot. Raines will be in his next to last year of eligibility so there may be a push to get him elected. Bagwell, 21st all time in career OPS, should already be in the Hall, but he's stuck in the 50s.

My guess is they go with only two or three (Hoffman) next year kicking the can down the road for the rest in 2017 with Pudge Rodriguez and Vlad Guerrero the real first-time standouts. Mussina and Schilling will be in the 4th and 5th years respectively that year. 2018 will include Larry Wayne "Chipper" Jones and Jim Thome.

[Can_of_corn]

Will they again they blow the minds of the MLB Network analysts and pick another 4 in 2016, and if so, who will be elected? Two of the four would be Jr. Griffey and Piazza. The All Times Saves leader, Trevor Hoffman should get a lot of support considering Dennis Eckersley was a first ballot selection in 2004. Schilling and Mussina won't make that big of a leap. Trammel and McGwire will drop off the ballot. Raines will be in his next to last year of eligibility so there may be a push to get him elected. Bagwell, 21st all time in career OPS, should already be in the Hall, but he's stuck in the 50s.

My guess is they go with only two or three (Hoffman) next year kicking the can down the road for the rest in 2017 with Pudge Rodriguez and Vlad Guerrero the real first-time standouts. Mussina and Schilling will be in the 4th and 5th years respectively that year. 2018 will include Larry Wayne "Chipper" Jones and Jim Thome.

Four in 2016 would include Schilling and Raines. I don't see anyone else capable of making a big enough jump.

I don't think Hoffman is anything close to a lock, but maybe that is my own bias talking.

[TonySoprano]

Four in 2016 would include Schilling and Raines. I don't see anyone else capable of making a big enough jump.

I don't think Hoffman is anything close to a lock, but maybe that is my own bias talking.

I can't see Schilling almost doubling his vote total in only one year. Maybe it's been done before, and someone can cite the example, but that would practically be a historical one year jump into Cooperstown. Mariano Rivera will be a first-time lock in 2019, and I think the same case can be made for Hoffman in 2016.

[Can_of_corn]

I can't see Schilling almost doubling his vote total in only one year. Maybe it's been done before, and someone can cite the example, but that would practically be a historical one year jump into Cooperstown. Mariano Rivera will be a first-time lock in 2019, and I think the same case can be made for Hoffman in 2016.

I don't think Schilling gets it, I do think he gets more votes then Hoffman.

I think Rivera is considered to be in a class of his own. I think Hoffman will be treated more like Smith.

[TonySoprano]

I don't think Schilling gets it, I do think he gets more votes then Hoffman.

I think Rivera is considered to be in a class of his own. I think Hoffman will be treated more like Smith.

If anyone is going to get the Lee Smith treatment, it's more likely to be Billy Wagner. Hoffman appeared in only 12 more games than Lee Smith, both in 18 seasons, and Hoffman has 123 more saves. Edgar Martinez will pass Lee Smith.

Rivera has 51 more saves but in also 80 more games than Hoffman and both averaged 39 saves over an 162 game season. Rivera is a lock having pitched in NY, otherwise maybe you'd say he'd get the Hoffman treatment had he pitched in San Diego.

[Can_of_corn]

If anyone is going to get the Lee Smith treatment, it's more likely to be Billy Wagner. Hoffman appeared in only 12 more games than Lee Smith, both in 18 seasons, and Hoffman has 123 more saves. Edgar Martinez will pass Lee Smith.

Rivera has 51 more saves but in also 80 more games than Hoffman and both averaged 39 saves over an 162 game season. Rivera is a lock having pitched in NY, otherwise maybe you'd say he'd get the Hoffman treatment had he pitched in San Diego.

Wagner might not get the 5% to stay on the ballot.

Rivera is a lock due to the 42 saves and 141 IP in the postseason.

[25 Nuggets]

Next year will be Griffey Jr and maybe Piazza. The writers who are taking suspected users on a case-by-case basis, and not voting for Piazza will have to confront his case. I think there's a fair chance he gets in, but it's a coin flip. A lot of players will gain votes but they're too far back to make it all up in one year. Hoffman will start around 30% and Jim Edmonds maybe 15%. Wagner will struggle to stay on, although he shouldn't.

2017 will see a lot of good HOF candidates for the first time, but none of them are first ballot locks. Vlad Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez (suspicion), Manny Ramirez (failed tests) to name a few. It'll be an interesting vote where anyone from zero to three could get in. I think Tim Raines gets in on his last ballot here, but he needs to make another big jump in 2016. Jeff Bagwell could get in this year, but I think it's largely dependent on whether Piazza makes it first.