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How many runs will Tampa score in 2015?


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The only pitching staff that competes with Baltimore's in the AL East, in my opinion, is Tampa's. They can trot out Cobb, Smyly and Archer 1-2-3 with Moore waiting in the wings, and they have a pen led by Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger. But with the news of the impending sign of Asdrubal Cabrera and the probable trade of Ben Zobrist, I look at their lineup and wonder if they score the lowest number of runs again in the AL.

1) CF Desmond Jennings ®

2) DH David DeJesus (L)

3) 3B Evan Longoria ®

4) 1B James Loney (L)

5) LF Steven Souza ®

6) RF Kevin Kiermeier (L)

7) C Rene Rivera ®

8) 2B Asdrubal Cabrera (B)

9) SS Yunel Escobar ®

Logan Forsythe and Brandon Guyer would be the primary bench players. This is presuming they don't get a ML starter for Zobrist and stick to young, cost controlled prospects. Do you know who had the highest OPS last year among all those players? Let's convert the lineup to their 2014 stats:

1) .244/.319/.378 - .697

2) .248/.344/.403 - .748

3) .253/.320/.404 - .724

4) .290/.336/.380 - .716

5) rookie

6) .263/.315/.450 - .765

7) .252/.319/.432 - .751

8) .241/.307/.387 - .694

9) .258/.324/.340 - .664

Doesn't look good does it? Well, Souza is projected to OPS fairly well. The league average player in the AL in 2014 looked like this:

.256/.316/.390 - .706

Even without Zobrist there are no holes in the lineup like there was at catcher last season (remember, Rene Rivera put up those numbers in San Diego). Plus, there is much room for improvement from Evan Longoria, who woefully underperformed last year. And there is no injured Wil Meyers stinking it up. Kiermeier, who slugged .450 last season, could switch with Loney to provide some legit cleanup power, but it's hard to determine if he wins the adjustment battle in his second season.

Given the propensity for injury and dysfunction in Toronto, I can't shake the feeling that Tampa will be the toughest competition for the Orioles this year. Yes I know the GM and manager are gone -- I don't know if we'll see the full effect of that so soon.

What are your thoughts on this? How does Tampa measure up against NY, BOS and TOR?

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The only pitching staff that competes with Baltimore's in the AL East, in my opinion, is Tampa's. They can trot out Cobb, Smyly and Archer 1-2-3 with Moore waiting in the wings, and they have a pen led by Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger. But with the news of the impending sign of Asdrubal Cabrera and the probable trade of Ben Zobrist, I look at their lineup and wonder if they score the lowest number of runs again in the AL.

1) CF Desmond Jennings ®

2) DH David DeJesus (L)

3) 3B Evan Longoria ®

4) 1B James Loney (L)

5) LF Steven Souza ®

6) RF Kevin Kiermeier (L)

7) C Rene Rivera ®

8) 2B Asdrubal Cabrera (B)

9) SS Yunel Escobar ®

Logan Forsythe and Brandon Guyer would be the primary bench players. This is presuming they don't get a ML starter for Zobrist and stick to young, cost controlled prospects. Do you know who had the highest OPS last year among all those players? Let's convert the lineup to their 2014 stats:

1) .244/.319/.378 - .697

2) .248/.344/.403 - .748

3) .253/.320/.404 - .724

4) .290/.336/.380 - .716

5) rookie

6) .263/.315/.450 - .765

7) .252/.319/.432 - .751

8) .241/.307/.387 - .694

9) .258/.324/.340 - .664

Doesn't look good does it? Well, Sousa is projected to OPS fairly well. The league average player in the AL in 2014 looked like this:

.256/.316/.390 - .706

Even without Zobrist there are no holes in the lineup like there was at catcher last season (remember, Rene Rivera put up those numbers in San Diego). Plus, there is much room for improvement from Evan Longoria, who woefully underperformed last year. And there is no injured Wil Meyers stinking it up. Given the propensity for injury and dysfunction in Toronto, I can't shake the feeling that Tampa will be the toughest competition for the Orioles this year. Yes I know the GM and manager are gone -- I don't know if we'll see the full effect of that so soon.

What are your thoughts on this? How does Tampa measure up against NY, BOS and TOR?

I'm thinking they will average between two and three runs per game.

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The Tampa Bay Model requires a reload now and again. Also, you have to draft first for ten years for it to really work.

Only a few of the Rays' stars were picked really high. I think the larger point is that they have not drafted and developed nearly as well for the last 4-5 years as they did previously. And they aren't as good at developing bats as they are at developing arms.

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Steamer says, 4.02 per game, which they peg for last in the American League. They project the Orioles at 4.24 runs/game, 6th in the AL.

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Interesting. That's still significantly better than last year, and better than nine NL teams. Meanwhile, projected runs against is almost exactly the same.

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