Time to Get Fowler? (Traded to Cubs)

[srock]

Is he better then de Aza? A little bit, but not by much.

Certainly nice he is a switch hitter who crushes LHP and still hits RHP well.

Career OPS+ is 104, de Aza is 100.

He is a consistent OBP producer, which the Orioles are short on.

If the Astros are willing to trade him for one of our guys who is also a free agent after 2015, that's an interesting move to make.

[25 Nuggets]

Agh, this Duquette talk is just killing me right now. Are the Orioles "interested" in Fowler like they are everyone else?

[ShaneDawg85]

On the surface, Chris Carter is a name I'd have very little interest in. He's exactly like the man he shares his last name with, Joe Carter, power and no on base skills. Plus the strikeouts, good gravy. But looking at his minor league numbers, he was really good at getting on base and he also hit for a better average. Not sure if it's just a function of playing in Houston with little around him, or major league pitching have gone the Pedro Cerrano method and decided to just throwing him breaking pitches and off speed stuff. Either way, I still wouldn't take him unless it was for very little.

[Ruzious]

I think Wright could be a piece. Depends on their needs. I don't know the Astros system. Maybe add another B guy to the deal.

But I still maintain there's no way we part with one of our 6 starting pitchers for him. Not even Norris, who they wouldn't want because he would only a one-year rental for them and we wouldn't want to trade because his one-year price is a better deal as a starter than Fowler's 9 mil as an OFer.

I don't get your logic - considering both Fowler and Norris are in the same boat having 1 year of control. Fowler's 9 mil is more than reasonable. The O's have 6 starters pitchers, and I doubt they're willing to pay what Norris will command if he has another good year. The O's need a quality everyday corner OFer. The Astros trade for Gattis is a strong indication that they want to win THIS year.

[Ruzious]

Is he better then de Aza? A little bit, but not by much.

Certainly nice he is a switch hitter who crushes LHP and still hits RHP well.

Career OPS+ is 104, de Aza is 100.

He is a consistent OBP producer, which the Orioles are short on.

If the Astros are willing to trade him for one of our guys who is also a free agent after 2015, that's an interesting move to make.

But Fowler's been 119 OPS+ 2 of the last 3 years, and who knows which de Aza will show up for the O's. Remember, de Aza was having a lousy year when the O's traded for him - and many Chicago fans were very critical of his baseball IQ.

[Punchandjudy]

I'm big Chris Carter fan. I read an article late last year where he made a change to his approach at the plate and reverted more to the style he used in the minors. He was almost out of baseball, mired on the bench of one of the worst teams in baseball. He changed his approach, received and opportunity and became one of the most feared power hitters in the game the second half of the year. He plays a solid first, is a good club house guy, and potentially figured it out last year. Could be a buy (relatively) low option as I still think his BA and OPB are red flags. He certainly would be a viable option to replace Cruz's home run production. I'd like to see it personally at the right price.

Final 72 games of 2014 #Angels Mike Trout .269/.353/.523, 16 HR, 31 BB, & 92 K #Astros Chris Carter .268/.348/.574, 24 HR, 33 BB, & 92 K ? Ace of MLB Stats (@AceballStats) December 19, 2014

I'm not stating that he should be compared to Mike Trout. I just pulled this off another articile. The article goes on to point out that Carter could experience a David Ortiz like ascension. He is scheduled to make a little over $4 million this year.

[srock]

But Fowler's been 119 OPS+ 2 of the last 3 years, and who knows which de Aza will show up for the O's. Remember, de Aza was having a lousy year when the O's traded for him - and many Chicago fans were very critical of his baseball IQ.

I do like Fowler's recent history over de Aza. My issue is in regards to marginal gain.

Is it worth trading something useful for what is somewhere between a slight upgrade and a modest upgrade?

Especially if Rasmus can be signed for cheaper without trading anything.

[oriole]

I do like Fowler's recent history over de Aza. My issue is in regards to marginal gain.

Is it worth trading something useful for what is somewhere between a slight upgrade and a modest upgrade?

Especially if Rasmus can be signed for cheaper without trading anything.

I'd rather see them pay an extra couple million for a player with more recent and consistent success and a skill set better suited for the team. We need a lead off guy that we can put out there everyday. Fowler would be perfect.

[Ruzious]

I do like Fowler's recent history over de Aza. My issue is in regards to marginal gain.

Is it worth trading something useful for what is somewhere between a slight upgrade and a modest upgrade?

Especially if Rasmus can be signed for cheaper without trading anything.

Problem is - you have no idea what you're going to get with de Aza and even Rasmus - so you can't assume Fowler is just a slight upgrade. He might be a very large upgrade.

[Aristotelian]

I do like Fowler's recent history over de Aza. My issue is in regards to marginal gain.

Is it worth trading something useful for what is somewhere between a slight upgrade and a modest upgrade?

Especially if Rasmus can be signed for cheaper without trading anything.

As long as it is not Bundy or Harvey, yes.

[isestrex]

I hope we stay far clear of Fowler.

Castro would be interesting but there's very little need to try to make something happen there.

Carter... now we're talking.

[srock]

I'd rather see them pay an extra couple million for a player with more recent and consistent success and a skill set better suited for the team. We need a lead off guy that we can put out there everyday. Fowler would be perfect.

Problem is - you have no idea what you're going to get with de Aza and even Rasmus - so you can't assume Fowler is just a slight upgrade. He might be a very large upgrade.

As long as it is not Bundy or Harvey, yes.

Remember, he is under contract for 2015, you only get him 1 year most likely. So that's part of the marginal gain concerns I would have.

My guess the upgrade confidence interval is something like, an admittedly subjective method.:

90% sure Fowler is a slight upgrade

50% sure Fowler is a moderate upgrade

10% sure he is a large upgrade.

Lets look at WAR. oWAR actually, dWAR makes little sense because the numbers are mostly for CF or small sample in RF/LF for de Aza (about 0 anyway)

Last 3 years Fowler avg oWAR is 3.23.

de Aza oWAR avg over 3 years is 1.9.

By this metric Fowler has been worth 3.23 - 1.9 = 1.33 oWAR more then de Aza.

So who is worth trading that is worth 1.33 WAR upgrade?

Bud Norris avg WAR over 3 years is 1.77 and he also under contract for only 1 year. That could be an even swap.

But would you trade multiple prospects with many years of team control for a 1.33 WAR upgrade?

Rasmus avg oWAR over 3 years is 2.0 (about the same as de Aza) and he should cost LESS money and no players.

Summary:

In the right deal I would love to acquire Fowler, but I'm not willing to trade some of our few solid prospects for 1 year of 1.33 WAR upgrade.

[Guest]

This team wont give Rasmus 7m. Orioles not gonna spend 9m on him. Cross him off.

[Os84]

This team wont give Rasmus 7m. Orioles not gonna spend 9m on him. Cross him off.

Rasmus is not worth half of that.

[Aristotelian]

Remember, he is under contract for 2015, you only get him 1 year most likely. So that's part of the marginal gain concerns I would have.

My guess the upgrade confidence interval is something like, an admittedly subjective method.:

90% sure Fowler is a slight upgrade

50% sure Fowler is a moderate upgrade

10% sure he is a large upgrade.

Lets look at WAR. oWAR actually, dWAR makes little sense because the numbers are mostly for CF or small sample in RF/LF for de Aza (about 0 anyway)

Last 3 years Fowler avg oWAR is 3.23.

de Aza oWAR avg over 3 years is 1.9.

By this metric Fowler has been worth 3.23 - 1.9 = 1.33 oWAR more then de Aza.

So who is worth trading that is worth 1.33 WAR upgrade?

Bud Norris avg WAR over 3 years is 1.77 and he also under contract for only 1 year. That could be an even swap.

But would you trade multiple prospects with many years of team control for a 1.33 WAR upgrade?

Rasmus avg oWAR over 3 years is 2.0 (about the same as de Aza) and he should cost LESS money and no players.

Summary:

In the right deal I would love to acquire Fowler, but I'm not willing to trade some of our few solid prospects for 1 year of 1.33 WAR upgrade.

Tyler Wilson might be interesting to them but has very little chance to make our rotation. He is worth 0 war to us but may be worth 2-3 War to them.