Time to Get Fowler? (Traded to Cubs)

[Number5]

Fowler will cost maybe $1-2M more than Rasmus but has way better career numbers. Rasmus has hit .225 or less for three of the last four seasons. We are MUCH more likely to get a 3+ oWAR from Fowler than we are from Rasmus. I would pay $2M and a prospect for that.

I don't think it is meaningful to choose between Fowler and De Aza. I would like to have both with Pearce being our primary DH and spending some platoon time at 1B and OF.

Again, this is a thin-ice assumption. Both Rasmus and Fowler have had a 3.0+ oWAR exactly twice in their careers. Neither player is likely to do so. As others have posted here, indications are that Fowler is likely to be a slight to moderate upgrade over Rasmus or De Aza. Sure, any one of the three can match his career best season and be very solid for us, but the cost of Fowler's $9 million salary plus whatever prospect(s) it takes to get him doesn't seem to be a good value play to me, given the relative cost of the other two players compared with the likely production.

[Babypowder]

I wonder what the cost is on Chris Carter? Forget Rasmus or Fowler. Put Pearce and Lough in RF and Carter at DH. Carter potentially replaces Cruz's bat in the lineup. He only makes 4.17M this year and can't be a FA until after the 2018 season. That's 4 years of service time. Now, the price. Houston isn't going to want guys going into FA years but they do want immediate contributors from the sounds of it. Can we get a guy like Carter without it hurting too much.

Miguel Gonzalez (cheap starter)

Brad Brach (cheap reliever, selling high)

Christian Walker (you have to give to get)

Carter - 120 games at DH last year so he can handle the role (.840 OPS as a DH)

Let's talk about it.

Agreed. I think he's the one I'd prefer as well. That deal doesn't hurt much if you ask me, but I'm one of the people who buy into FIP and don't think of Gonzlez as much of a loss. Put him in front of Houston's defense and we may see what he really is. A mediocre starter. Brach may interest them but he's obviously replaceable. I don't see Walker as an impact prospect, I know others here see him as valuable though. Carter would be an excellent fit at DH, in my opinion.

[Aristotelian]

Again, this is a thin-ice assumption. Both Rasmus and Fowler have had a 3.0+ oWAR exactly twice in their careers. Neither player is likely to do so. As others have posted here, indications are that Fowler is likely to be a slight to moderate upgrade over Rasmus or De Aza. Sure, any one of the three can match his career best season and be very solid for us, but the cost of Fowler's $9 million salary plus whatever prospect(s) it takes to get him doesn't seem to be a good value play to me, given the relative cost of the other two players compared with the likely production.

Fowler has been >3.0 oWar twice and >2.0 oWAR all but one year. Rasmus has also been >3.0 oWAR but has been <2.0 oWAR every other year. When Rasmus has been bad (which is the majority of the time) he has been much worse than Fowler. For their career, we are talking about 15.8 vs 12.2. That is a significant gap in production. Fowler is also strong in the one area that we need the most help - OBP in the leadoff spot. No player is a sure thing but Fowler has a much better overall track record than Rasmus. Given that Rasmus will cost almost as much as Fowler, I think it is worth it to go after Fowler. Giving Colby Rasmus $9M (which I am not opposed to by the way) is much more likely to lead to an Ubaldo-type situation.

[sportsfan8703]

I wonder what the cost is on Chris Carter? Forget Rasmus or Fowler. Put Pearce and Lough in RF and Carter at DH. Carter potentially replaces Cruz's bat in the lineup. He only makes 4.17M this year and can't be a FA until after the 2018 season. That's 4 years of service time. Now, the price. Houston isn't going to want guys going into FA years but they do want immediate contributors from the sounds of it. Can we get a guy like Carter without it hurting too much.

Miguel Gonzalez (cheap starter)

Brad Brach (cheap reliever, selling high)

Christian Walker (you have to give to get)

Carter - 120 games at DH last year so he can handle the role (.840 OPS as a DH)

Let's talk about it.

Didn't realize Carter had 4 years left. I don't think they'd be interested in Walker. Something like Gonzo, Hunter and SP prospect. I'm not sure on the players but I really like the idea of Fowler and Carter.

[Number5]

Fowler has been >3.0 oWar twice and >2.0 oWAR all but one year. Rasmus has also been >3.0 oWAR but has been <2.0 oWAR every other year. When Rasmus has been bad (which is the majority of the time) he has been much worse than Fowler. For their career, we are talking about 15.8 vs 12.2. That is a significant gap in production. Fowler is also strong in the one area that we need the most help - OBP in the leadoff spot. No player is a sure thing but Fowler has a much better overall track record than Rasmus. Given that Rasmus will cost almost as much as Fowler, I think it is worth it to go after Fowler. Giving Colby Rasmus $9M (which I am not opposed to by the way) is much more likely to lead to an Ubaldo-type situation.

You keep changing your tune. So, you now agree that neither is likely to produce 3.0+WAR, as opposed to your previous post, where supposedly Fowler was MUCH more likely to do so. The difference in cumulative oWAR is not really that great on a per year basis - hence the slight to moderate upgrade terminology. Certainly not enough to warrant a top prospect. Your claiming that signing Rasmus (who I disagree would cost $9 million - if he gets that much, it isn't likely to be from Baltimore, IMO) to a one year deal is equivalent to the Ubaldo 4 year/ $50 million signing is way off base, by any measure.

[Three Run Homer]

Love Fowler's bat--he would be a great addition at the top of the lineup.

Does he have the arm to play RF?

[Aristotelian]

I would still maintain that Fowler is more likely to produce 3 oWAR because he has consistently been above 2 oWAR. 3.6 wins over 6 years does not sound like a lot, but that is half a win a year and a 25% premium.

As for Ubaldo, I just meant that Rasmus could underperform his salary as bad as Ubaldo did last year. Obviously if Ubaldo repeats his 2014 three more times that is going to be much worse.

I agree with you that I do not want to give up a top prospect. I am talking about a Tyler Wilson type.

[El Gordo]

As I see it they are starting De Aza in left and Pearce in RF. They have Lough if Pearce struggles with RHP and Delmon and Pearce, if De Aza struggles against LHP. They could use another LH bat to DH or platoon with Pearce if Lough isn't effective. Who ever they get is not going to be starting over either to begin with IMO, so I doubt they are giving up much or paying much to get him.

[Number5]

I would still maintain that Fowler is more likely to produce 3 oWAR because he has consistently been above 2 oWAR. 3.6 wins over 6 years does not sound like a lot, but that is half a win a year and a 25% premium.

As for Ubaldo, I just meant that Rasmus could underperform his salary as bad as Ubaldo did last year. Obviously if Ubaldo repeats his 2014 three more times that is going to be much worse.

I agree with you that I do not want to give up a top prospect. I am talking about a Tyler Wilson type.

Ah, OK. Well, we aren't that far apart, then. The whole Fowler idea depends on what player(s) we have to give up.

[Babypowder]

As I see it they are starting De Aza in left and Pearce in RF. They have Lough if Pearce struggles with RHP and Delmon and Pearce, if De Aza struggles against LHP. They could use another LH bat to DH or platoon with Pearce if Lough isn't effective. Who ever they get is not going to be starting over either to begin with IMO, so I doubt they are giving up much or paying much to get him.

I would hope Fowler would start over De Aza in left. He certainly should.

[El Gordo]

I would hope Fowler would start over De Aza in left. He certainly should.

It doesn't make much sense to give up a lot, and pay Fowler 9M, for what little difference there might be over De Aza.There aren't any OF available that are slam dunk starters over De Aza,

[Guest]

The Astros reportedly have made Dexter Fowler available, but I was told that he's not a fit for the Orioles.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2015/01/blackmon-a-consideration-for-orioles.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I wonder why maybe it's the 9m he's gonna get in 2015.

[waroriole]

While it's annoying that people with a medium salary are never a fit, I do wonder if he's a Buck guy. There was a game this year against us where we are up 2 in the 9th, with 2 outs. Fowler then steals 3B, a completely unnecessary move done only to pad stats.

[weams]

While it's annoying that people with a medium salary are never a fit, I do wonder if he's a Buck guy. There was a game this year against us where we are up 2 in the 9th, with 2 outs. Fowler then steals 3B, a completely unnecessary move done only to pad stats.

I suspect muchnofnhis compensation value will be tied to his playing center. No need for the Orioles to pay for that. Shame. But he,s not a FA. And that becomes an issue.

[Guest]

Cubs just got him.