Paul Folk: Are The Orioles Putting Too Much Faith In Their Own Players?

[wildcard]

Well, good luck with that. I don't see any value there at 3.2 mil.

Lefties generally have value to someone at some point. Maybe the O's have to take back a player that is owed 1 to 2M. As long as that player has options the O's could do that. The 3.2m in not a budget issue at this point.

Maybe they trade Matusz for an outfielder with a higher salary.

[Three Run Homer]

Generalizations about investing more in the FA market are pointless. What free agent should we have gone after and at what cost? Melky? Aoki? Rasmus? Cruz at 58 M? Scherzer? Shields? Miller at 8 M per? I like our guys, sorry.

There weren't many corner outfield options available in free agency this year, but there were good options available by trade, like Dexter Fowler and Michael Saunders. There's still time to make a deal, but as things stand we still have 6 starting pitchers and a need for at least one quality two-way player in LF or RF. Barring any other moves, the Orioles will be putting too much faith in (and allocating too many at bats to) David Lough and whatever AAA right-handed bat they pick in spring training.

[backwardsk]

I wasn't saying that LaRoche would have been a bad sign at 27.5. I just don't agree with the methodology that gets used.

Why 10%? Why not 25%? 50%? You'll never know what the signing team's limit would have been. CWS may have been willing to give him 2/32.

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[Can_of_corn]

Why 10%? Why not 25%? 50%? You'll never know what the signing team's limit would have been. CWS may have been willing to give him 2/32.

Because

Because we know there is another team that is at the least willing to pay what he received. Maybe the White Sox would have gone 2/30 if there was another team willing to go 2/25?

We don't know all the variables and, to me, adding 10% seems more accurate then just looking at what they got.

Completely my own personal judgement.

You may absolutely disagree all you want.

[weams]

Because

Completely my own personal judgement.

You may absolutely disagree all you want.

I know if I were looking to increase a bid, 10 percent is an easy number to calculate.

[El Gordo]

There weren't many corner outfield options available in free agency this year, but there were good options available by trade, like Dexter Fowler and Michael Saunders. There's still time to make a deal, but as things stand we still have 6 starting pitchers and a need for at least one quality two-way player in LF or RF. Barring any other moves, the Orioles will be putting too much faith in (and allocating too many at bats to) David Lough and whatever AAA right-handed bat they pick in spring training.

Fowler would have been nice, but do you want to pay him 10 M for one year and give up the O's equivalent of Dan Straily and Louis Valbuena? for one year rental? I'd rather see what I have in house.

[scOtt]

If the O's had more flexibility in the pen I wouldn't have as much an issue with Matusz and Hunter.

That is a concern. We're likely to get to the end of ST and have one or two guys with no options and nothing to do with them. Other teams will know this and it decreases their value. But other teams will be in the same predicament with their players. I think a late ST trade is likely, not just Matusz or Hunter but anyone in the pen. To help two teams' options squeeze.

[BohKnowsBmore]

What high priced FA do you think we should have gone after?

This is always the question. Very easy to say "we should have signed an impact player!" in the abstract with to specifics as to player/price. I personally would have liked Rasmus at 1/8, but I'm not distraught about it.

[Three Run Homer]

Fowler would have been nice, but do you want to pay him 10 M for one year and give up the O's equivalent of Dan Straily and Louis Valbuena? for one year rental? I'd rather see what I have in house.

I would have given the Astros Bud Norris or Miguel Gonzalez for Fowler--if they had their heart set on a third baseman, there's not much we could have done. But Seattle wound up trading Saunders for J.A. Happ, and we could have beaten that.

[ChuckS]

Could have gotten Seth Smith for mid-level to fringe prospect. That was the deal to make.

[El Gordo]

I would have given the Astros Bud Norris or Miguel Gonzalez for Fowler--if they had their heart set on a third baseman, there's not much we could have done. But Seattle wound up trading Saunders for J.A. Happ, and we could have beaten that.

They have no use for Norris and Gonzo is worth more to us and under control for more years than one year of Fowler. That would be a stupid trade.

[MemorialStadKid]

On a case-by-case basis, it makes sense for the O's to be skeptical of free agents like Rasmus and Aoki. Every free agent comes with some flaws. The problem, though, is that the O's seem to be so focused on what players can't do that they've overlooked the benefits they could potentially bring to the Birds. And as a result, the Orioles have basically talked themselves out of signing anyone at all.

The free-agent cupboard is now almost completely bare, and the Orioles haven't acquired anyone who figures to make a meaningful impact on the 2015 team.

This entire article is what many of us have been saying since the winter meetings and have been raked over the coals for daring to discuss.

I love seeing some of you post here who were so nasty about this subject earlier in the offseason.

DD has put the Orioles into a horrible place. No upgrades and a total dependence on guys rebounding or suddenly putting up career numbers.

I'll say the same thing I've said since early December - we needed to sign RF, a DH and a TOR starter. Via trade or extremely smart FA picks. Now, there's nothing left and we're going to have some problems if we're hanging the entire season's hopes on Davis, Wieters and Machado.

MSK

[weams]

Raked over the coals? LOL

We essentially have the same team as last year that won 96 games. The same starting staff with Gausman having one more year of experience and pretty much the same bullpen.

Markakis, IMO is easily replaced in RF by either Pearce, Lough or a combination of the two. I will agree on one point, DH. We have not come close to replacing Nelson Cruz's 40 homers and 108 RBI. Still, you make everything sound as if it's the end of the world. It's not. The team as currently constructed can compete. We still have one extra starter and 3 extra relievers heading into ST, and the money we didn't spend on Cruz and Markakis.

I believe Matt Wieters has the Orioles in a bit of a DH dilemma.

[MemorialStadKid]

Raked over the coals? LOL

We essentially have the same team as last year that won 96 games. The same starting staff with Gausman having one more year of experience and pretty much the same bullpen.

Markakis, IMO is easily replaced in RF by either Pearce, Lough or a combination of the two. I will agree on one point, DH. We have not come close to replacing Nelson Cruz's 40 homers and 108 RBI. Still, you make everything sound as if it's the end of the world. It's not. The team as currently constructed can compete. We still have one extra starter and 3 extra relievers heading into ST, and the money we didn't spend on Cruz and Markakis.

I understand the platoon argument for RF, but that means that De Aza is going to have to figure out a way to step up even if paired with Pearce. My question is about the potential defense of a RF platoon - can Pearce be as good as Markakis in the field? I just don't see it.

In any case, you must have missed the hundreds of posts where a lot of the same people called me and others "trolls" because we were dissatisfied with DD's lack of movement in trades and free agency. The winter meetings came and went with a whole lot of nothing going on. Whenever we said that the lack of movement sucked, we'd get a lot of snark and nasty attitudes.

I'm glad that other folks in the real world see that the lack of movement is deeply problematic.

MSK

[weams]

I understand the platoon argument for RF, but that means that De Aza is going to have to figure out a way to step up even if paired with Pearce. My question is about the potential defense of a RF platoon - can Pearce be as good as Markakis in the field? I just don't see it.

In any case, you must have missed the hundreds of posts where a lot of the same people called me and others "trolls" because we were dissatisfied with DD's lack of movement in trades and free agency. The winter meetings came and went with a whole lot of nothing going on. Whenever we said that the lack of movement sucked, we'd get a lot of snark and nasty attitudes.

I'm glad that other folks in the real world see that the lack of movement is deeply problematic.

MSK

You weren't called trolls. Some people who did troll are no here any longer. Stop making a case where there is none. You are welcome to disagree with the way the club runs. And lose the we. It's just you. And me.