Orioles 2015 ZIPS Projections

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/

Chris Tillman's comp is Bob Milacki.

I kid you not, Bob Milacki.

No wonder they think the O's are going to be in last place.

[25 Nuggets]

OPS	OPS+	Player		BA	OBP	SLG821	122	Davis		241	326	495818	123	Pearce		262	345	473790	114	Jones		279	315	475771	110	Machado		285	323	448749	104	Wieters		254	314	435720	97	Snider		242	310	410718	96	Parmalee	243	312	406716	96	De Aza		262	320	396699	90	Alvarez		270	290	409698	90	Young		261	297	401698	90	Walker		241	297	401690	91	Hassan		249	329	361685	86	Schoop		238	275	410681	86	Hardy		256	297	384679	87	Lavarnway	243	311	368671	82	Arencibia	217	264	407668	82	Flaherty	228	287	381663	81	Marrero		235	288	375661	81	Lough		251	290	371652	78	Joseph		235	279	373644	77	Adams		231	290	354640	75	Navarro		247	283	357639	76	Clevenger	247	301	338629	71	Paredes		237	266	363606	66	Urrutia		250	274	332

I omitted the rest because they don't seem to have a chance for MLB at bats. The counting stats are all wrong because they're all projected through 162 MLB games, I think. Still it looks awful to me. I expect (hope) better things from Wieters, Snider, Hardy, and Young than that. Fortunately they like a big rebound from Davis.

[Bahama O's Fan]

How close were they last year? Anyone want to put up their projections against the actual stats from last year?

[Scrat1]

A lot of the offensive numbers seem pretty reasonable to me. I'd happily take their projections on Davis, Pearce and Jones. I wouldn't be upset by their projections of Hardy, Machado, Wieters, de Aza, and Schoop, though of course more would be nice. If the ZIPs projections prove true, I think our offense would be in pretty good shape.

[Loophole]

Annual reminder that Dan Szymborski, creator of ZiPS, is a Baltimore native and a huge O's fan, so your instinct to scream "he designed his algorithm with an anti-me bias for some reason!" doesn't hold much water.

Immediate disregard due to platooning Young in LF over Pearce. I mean, come on.

Pearce's main spot on the depth chart right now is DH. If you don't like the depth chart there's a full listing of all projections at the link.

[Can_of_corn]

Annual reminder that Dan Szymborski, creator of ZiPS, is a Baltimore native and a huge O's fan, so your instinct to scream "he designed his algorithm with an anti-me bias for some reason!" doesn't hold much water.

Pearce's main spot on the depth chart right now is DH. If you don't like the depth chart there's a full listing of all projections at the link.

I like to import the graphics when I post articles. I thought the picture was a decent synopsis.

[Bahama O's Fan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/

Chris Tillman's comp is Bob Milacki.

I kid you not, Bob Milacki.

No wonder they think the O's are going to be in last place.

I admit, I'm no stat geek, but that has us at 34 wins above replacement. What are replacement wins for a whole season? Or does it even work that way?

[Frobby]

I admit' date=' I'm no stat geek, but that has us at 34 wins above replacement. What are replacement wins for a whole season? Or does it even work that way?[/quote']

I believe 48 wins is the base. So, 34 WAR = 82 wins.

[Bahama O's Fan]

So, since Snider is a "0", would he be considered a "replacement player"? If os, do they think if we had a team full of players with Snider's skills, we would have 48 wins?

[Frobby]

So' date=' since Snider is a "0", would he be considered a "replacement player"? If os, do they think if we had a team full of players with Snider's skills, we would have 48 wins?[/quote']

Correct, it is assumed that a team full of replacement level players could win about 48 games.

[Can_of_corn]

So' date=' since Snider is a "0", would he be considered a "replacement player"? If os, do they think if we had a team full of players with Snider's skills, we would have 48 wins?[/quote']

He would be performing at a replacement level yes. Kinda like how Markakis did in 2013. As for the second question, pretty much. Remember the 2003 Tiger team didn't even win 48.

[Frobby]

My offhand reaction is that the offensive projections seem okay, and like the other systems, ZiPS is going overboard on projecting regression for the pitchers.

[Bahama O's Fan]

So here's a fun challenge. Go into their projections and find the best "replacement" team. Look for any players projected with a WAR of "0" and put together a team that you think will beat the projections the most.

[25 Nuggets]

So here's a fun challenge. Go into their projections and find the best "replacement" team. Look for any players projected with a WAR of "0" and put together a team that you think will beat the projections the most.

Interestingly enough I think Snider might make my team. They're projecting him to regress a lot from last season.

I don't have time ATM but I will get back to you with a team.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I had a few minutes and Michael Ohlman and Christian Walker are projected at 0 WAR