Health and an unpredictable offense will tell the story for the O's in 2015

[wildcard]

The O's have a solid pitching staff and a very good defense. That is the backbone of the 2015 O's. Its the offense that is unpredictable. It could be great or it could be bad or something in between. The offense reflects the short term past of its players.

Adam Jones is in the one exception. He is predictable. He will hit around 30 homers, drive in 90 or better, hit .280 or so and swing at the low outside pitch too much.

But past that it gets mucky. Will we get the O's best years or will some of their worst years come back to bite the team? The O's will have to play the games to find out.

Chris Davus is the poster child for the unpredictability. 50 homers or half that? 1.000 OPS or .700. The O's are counting on Chris to be a big part of the offense and he will be. One way or another.

Next up for the middle of the order is Steve Pearce. Huge year last year will get him everyday playing time this year, somewhere. Predictable? Not so much. He has ability. Has had trouble staying healthy over his career. A potent bat when he is right. Will the league adjust to him this year? Your guess is as good as mine.

Youth, upside, immensely talented first round pick. That has to be Manny Machado. Could be ready to make a big jump offensively this year. Or be injured. Two seasons of major knee surgery leads to more unpredictability. Will the knees hold up?

So there are the four guys at the core of the O's offense.

To that add Wieters, returning from major TJ arm surgery. Wieters has a career 743 OPS when he was healthy. Now, he might be ready for Opening Day. Maybe. Or a few weeks later. But at what level will the switch hitter perform. 80%? 90? How much will he play and how much rest will be require. Its unpredictable.

JJ Hardy lost his power stroke last year for a good part of the season. Does the certainty of a new contract fix that? 20 something homers or 9? You pick.

De Aza is another hitter to wonder about. He hit righties well in 2012 and 2014, but not in 2013. And he couldn't hit lefties well last year or in 2012 but did hit them in 2013. So does that make him a platoon guy? And everyday guy? Or someone the White Sox were glad to say good bye to? Yes, you guessed it. He is unpredictable.

Lefty Travis Snider was predictably bad until last year. He hit pretty well in 322 at bats last year. That was in 140 games. That's 2.3 at bat pretty game. What does that mean? And what about those splits? He had a 1.054 OPS vs lefties in 42 at bats. That helped his .734 OPS vs righties look better overall. But does it make him any more predictable when he has a .716 career OPS?

And to fill out that lineup, one of the worst hitters in the majors. But Jonathan Schoop is young, very young. Is a big human being. Hopefully will improve in spite of being rushed to the majors and not hitting well in the high minors.

The bench has Delmon Young. Playoff hero. Who is on the team for his bat. He was a February free agent signing last year when no one else wanted him. He had a good year last year after three bad ones. Consistency has not been his friend.

David Lough had a good 2nd half. In fact from June on he hit well when he played. But he had about 21 at bats a month during that period. More at bats would make the outcome unpredictable. We know he has trouble hitting lefties.

Neither Joseph nor Flaherty showed much with the bat last year. Let's just leave it at that.

The players that will start the year at AAA are probably Dariel Alvarez, JP Arencibia, Rey Navarro, Christian Walker, Henry Urrutia, Ryan Lavarnway, Chris Parmelee, Matt Tuiasosopo and Nolan Reimold. Any of them could have a good year and force their way to the majors. It unpredictable. Maybe there is safety in numbers.

So while I am high of the O's pitching, pitching coaches and the O's defense, I have concerns about the offense. New hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh has his work cut out for him keeping the hitters doing their best. Here's hoping is all turns out well.

[Rene88]

Good analysis as usual sir. I wish at the least we would have better options at leadoff. De Aza is far from a sure thing (same with Snider on another topic). Lots of things have to come together for the offense not to struggle this year IMO. Maybe we will find out Lough was really bothered by that concussion and will look like a different player...maybe MW returns to form from the early part of last year....maybe Hardy rediscovers his power...maybe..well you get my point.

[Bahama O's Fan]

As much as I agree, I still think the pitching determines the success of this season.

[Redskins Rick]

I do not disagree about Davis, he has more good years, here than bad. So to say, he is the poster child, is pretty low dig.

Yes, Hardy lost his power stroke, will it return, who knows, but he has been very consistent over his years here.

[Frobby]

Runs scored the last four seasons: 708, 712, 745, 705

Runs allowed the last four seasons: 860, 705, 709, 593

Which of those is unpredictable?

I expect our offense to be down a little, but in the same ballpark as it's been in the last four years. Bottom line, to contend again, our pitching and defense have to be close to as good as they were last season. Any big slip backwards and we'll be a sub-90 win team.

By the way, even those two years where we allowed 705 and 709 runs, the pitching wasn't that consistent. The 2012 team had a 3.90 ERA, the 2013 team had a 4.20 ERA. However, the defense was far better in 2013 than 2012 and that kept the runs allowed tally close.

[backwardsk]

Hardy hit 9 home runs during the last 90 games of the season. If someone set the line at 18, I would easily take the over.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Frobby]

Hardy hit 9 home runs during the last 90 games of the season. If someone set the line at 18, I would easily take the over.

I don't think I would. Even ignoring the first 72 games of the year, 9 homers in 90 games is a 16-homer pace if you played every game, which Hardy probably won't. I'd put the over/under line at 15 HR.

[wildcard]

I do not disagree about Davis, he has more good years, here than bad. So to say, he is the poster child, is pretty low dig.

Yes, Hardy lost his power stroke, will it return, who knows, but he has been very consistent over his years here.

I don't think its a dig at all to say that Chris Davis' offense is unpredictable. Seems like a fact to me.

[wildcard]

Runs scored the last four seasons: 708, 712, 745, 705

Runs allowed the last four seasons: 860, 705, 709, 593

Which of those is unpredictable?

I expect our offense to be down a little, but in the same ballpark as it's been in the last four years. Bottom line, to contend again, our pitching and defense have to be close to as good as they were last season. Any big slip backwards and we'll be a sub-90 win team.

By the way, even those two years where we allowed 705 and 709 runs, the pitching wasn't that consistent. The 2012 team had a 3.90 ERA, the 2013 team had a 4.20 ERA. However, the defense was far better in 2013 than 2012 and that kept the runs allowed tally close.

Same pitchers as last year for the most part. And as good or better defense. Same pitching coach. I don't see a regression. If anything the Runs Allowed should decrease.

But the big difference on offense is the two guy who played every day are gone. The guys that are brought in are not every day players- probably. And the guys return from health issue may or may not be able to stay at the top of their game and stay healthy.

The offense is much more unstable IMO.

[SteveO]

Same pitchers as last year for the most part. And as good or better defense. Same pitching coach. I don't see a regression. If anything the Runs Allowed should decrease.

But the big difference on offense is the two guy who played every day are gone. The guys that are brought in are not every day players- probably. And the guys return from health issue may or may not be able to stay at the top of their game and stay healthy.

The offense is much more unstable IMO.

The offense as the numbers show has been pretty consistent in terms of total numbers the past 4 years. The instability of the offense IMO revolves around the idea that this is an offense that can be a little schizophrenic getting to those usual numbers. We rely on big hits and there are periods in any season were those hits get hard to come by.

More often than not they get it done but when the offense sputters it can be frustrating as hell.

[big_sparxx]

New hitting coach obviously brought in to try and bring CD back? Far too many questions if you ask me. A lot will depend on how much AB's Manny and Matt get, and whether or not Pearce is as advertised.

I wonder if Adam will change his attitude about walks? I know he doesn't like the idea, but we may need him to be more of a patient hitter up there.

Anyway.... I can hardly wait. I'm suffering serious withdrawls.

[Redskins Rick]

I don't think its a dig at all to say that Chris Davis' offense is unpredictable. Seems like a fact to me.

sorry, I respect what he has done, to me, he has 2+ years of solid play and an off year.

So just by the math, the numbers are twice as likely to produce.

But oh well, that is just my way of thinking.

[Frobby]

Same pitchers as last year for the most part. And as good or better defense. Same pitching coach. I don't see a regression. If anything the Runs Allowed should decrease.

But the big difference on offense is the two guy who played every day are gone. The guys that are brought in are not every day players- probably. And the guys return from health issue may or may not be able to stay at the top of their game and stay healthy.

The offense is much more unstable IMO.

I'm partly just playing devil's advocate with you. I expect the pitching to be pretty good again. But I think any time your runs allowed improves by 100+ runs, you have to be concerned that there will be some regression in the other direction. And don't forget, we had really good luck on the health front with our pitching staff last year, and pretty so-so luck with the health of our everyday players.

[MurphDogg]

I don't think I would. Even ignoring the first 72 games of the year, 9 homers in 90 games is a 16-homer pace if you played every game, which Hardy probably won't. I'd put the over/under line at 15 HR.

JJ's 9 home runs were actually in his last 77 games, not 90 games.

[MdSooner]

The offense as the numbers show has been pretty consistent in terms of total numbers the past 4 years. The instability of the offense IMO revolves around the idea that this is an offense that can be a little schizophrenic getting to those usual numbers. We rely on big hits and there are periods in any season were those hits get hard to come by.

More often than not they get it done but when the offense sputters it can be frustrating as hell.

Agreed with all points in this thread.

It was frustrating that we had 3 automatic outs (a little hyperbole) in Schoops, Flaherty, Joseph

And Davis's .200 avg was frustrating as well. Despite his OPS numbers.

JMHO