Jump to content

For all the people who said they would reserve their judgement...


millertime

Recommended Posts

Baltimore is still the best team in the division without "gutting the farm" or making a big move like Scherzer or Hamels. Sometimes the conservative approach is best. I'll take this roster, the farm intact, and 2016's flexibility.

I wanted us to open the bank for tex, Hamilton and pjuols at various times over the past several years. We look a lot better off as a result of what actually happened.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 114
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Baltimore is still the best team in the division without "gutting the farm" or making a big move like Scherzer or Hamels. Sometimes the conservative approach is best. I'll take this roster, the farm intact, and 2016's flexibility.
I'm not sure if we are clearly the best, but name a team who is clearly better. That is why we shouldn't risk disastrous long term signings/trades.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Baltimore is still the best team in the division without "gutting the farm" or making a big move like Scherzer or Hamels. Sometimes the conservative approach is best. I'll take this roster, the farm intact, and 2016's flexibility.

I think you can make a case for best or third best, and a finish anywhere from first to last is possible. When I have an advantage I like to put my foot on the competition's throat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure if we are clearly the best, but name a team who is clearly better. That is why we shouldn't risk disastrous long term signings/trades.

I think if you start out by claiming a move will be disastrous it's pretty easy to feel comfortable about not making the move. I don't think Baltimore is bad shape; I do think they had a chance to leverage their 25-man advantage and put legit distance between them and the rest of the AL East, even if it meant a year of running $15 million over budget. Make the ALCS and that $15 million doesn't mean squat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think you can make a case for best or third best, and a finish anywhere from first to last is possible. When I have an advantage I like to put my foot on the competition's throat.

Good to see some rational thought on here from a respected source.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't particularly fault Baltimore for not making significant moves -- the organization is in a tough spot with payroll and limited trade options in the minors. If Jimenez wasn't on the books then a signing of Scherzer or a trade for Hamels would have made a world of sense. Boy was that an unfortunate signing.

If we didn't sign Jimenez, we never would have signed Cruz either since you don't give up a 1st round pick for a 1 year/8 mil guy. And even then, we never would have been in play for a Scherzer since that goes against the Orioles philosophy of signing players.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we didn't sign Jimenez, we never would have signed Cruz either since you don't give up a 1st round pick for a 1 year/8 mil guy. And even then, we never would have been in play for a Scherzer since that goes against the Orioles philosophy of signing players.

Let's grant your assumptions as accurate. I think right now I'd prefer an O's team that didn't sign either Jimenez or Cruz last year. That would leave:

  • Extra money saved on Jimenez signing ($12.25 million in 2015, $13 million in 2016, and $13.5 million in 2017)
  • First and second round draft picks from last April (conservative and local go Derek Fisher (LF, UVA) and Mark Zagunis (3B/LF/C, VaTech))

You miss out on the comp pick for Cruz this year. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Cruz was not worth 12 wins, so Baltimore would have made the playoffs regardless of Cruz's absence. If someone wants to argue Baltimore would not have made the playoffs then we can add Eduardo Rodriguez back to the system, as well.

Either way, the org is better off, in my opinion, with no Jimenez signing. And it's not particularly close. Next year a bunch of money comes off the books (with holes opening up) so we'll see what happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's grant your assumptions as accurate. I think right now I'd prefer an O's team that didn't sign either Jimenez or Cruz last year. That would leave:
  • Extra money saved on Jimenez signing ($12.25 million in 2015, $13 million in 2016, and $13.5 million in 2017)
  • First and second round draft picks from last April (conservative and local go Derek Fisher (LF, UVA) and Mark Zagunis (3B/LF/C, VaTech))

You miss out on the comp pick for Cruz this year. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Cruz was not worth 12 wins, so Baltimore would have made the playoffs regardless of Cruz's absence. If someone wants to argue Baltimore would not have made the playoffs then we can add Eduardo Rodriguez back to the system, as well.

Either way, the org is better off, in my opinion, with no Jimenez signing. And it's not particularly close. Next year a bunch of money comes off the books (with holes opening up) so we'll see what happens.

Yes, I agree that Cruz wasn't worth 12 wins, but I also think you are potentially underestimating his value to the '14 team. Early in the season Cruz almost single handily kept the team competitive. I think without Cruz the team is not at .500 at the end of May. If the O's had been three, four, or five games farther behind, then who knows how the team would have responded and if the O's would have had a strong enough record for DD et al. to pull the trigger on Miller, etc., later. I don't think it's as simple as trying to count wins. Cruz's hot start to the season and his excellent overall year played an important role in the O's success last year.

Jimenez was a terrible signing. I tried to grin and make happy noises at the time, but it was a little bit of a "confederate money", slightly desperate gamble that is very, very unlikely to pay off. The O's could have purchased a real hitter with that cash. Oh well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, I agree that Cruz wasn't worth 12 wins, but I also think you are potentially underestimating his value to the '14 team. Early in the season Cruz almost single handily kept the team competitive. I think without Cruz the team is not at .500 at the end of May. If the O's had been three, four, or five games farther behind, then who knows how the team would have responded and if the O's would have had a strong enough record for DD et al. to pull the trigger on Miller, etc., later. I don't think it's as simple as trying to count wins. Cruz's hot start to the season and his excellent overall year played an important role in the O's success last year.

Jimenez was a terrible signing. I tried to grin and make happy noises at the time, but it was a little bit of a "confederate money", slightly desperate gamble that is very, very unlikely to pay off. The O's could have purchased a real hitter with that cash. Oh well.

A real hitter like who? And we still needed a top of the rotation arm. It just turned out that his name was Wallace.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's grant your assumptions as accurate. I think right now I'd prefer an O's team that didn't sign either Jimenez or Cruz last year. That would leave:
  • Extra money saved on Jimenez signing ($12.25 million in 2015, $13 million in 2016, and $13.5 million in 2017)
  • First and second round draft picks from last April (conservative and local go Derek Fisher (LF, UVA) and Mark Zagunis (3B/LF/C, VaTech))

You miss out on the comp pick for Cruz this year. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Cruz was not worth 12 wins, so Baltimore would have made the playoffs regardless of Cruz's absence. If someone wants to argue Baltimore would not have made the playoffs then we can add Eduardo Rodriguez back to the system, as well.

Either way, the org is better off, in my opinion, with no Jimenez signing. And it's not particularly close. Next year a bunch of money comes off the books (with holes opening up) so we'll see what happens.

I would have rather have not signed Ubaldo, Cruz and traded for Miller. Now in hind sight. Which is all we are conversing about. There are always unknown, unknowns.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would have rather have not signed Ubaldo, Cruz and traded for Miller. Now in hind sight. Which is all we are conversing about. There are always unknown, unknowns.

I would have rather not signed Jimenez at the time. And now. In hindsight. Some unknowns aren't that mysterious.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple of points to make.

#1 I think many Orioles fans are not used to the idea that we have a solid winning team and don't need to blow everything up and start from scratch. After 2 decades of futility, it will take some time to learn that a different approach is the right one now.

#2 Losing the Greek in right field is okay. He was not a power hitter, he was sure handed but without a lot of range (which hurts playing away from the friendly Camden Yards). His defense can be replaced and his offense can be replaced both by players with possible upside. They brought in a bunch of guys to try out for this and things will be equal or ahead for the Birds, this year or the next because Nick is aging and on the down side of his career. And if he gets a big payday- great for him. Parting ways with players who are starting to fade is something that winners do.

#3 Cruz had a career year and is unlikely to do as good this coming year. His power bat contribution will be replaced by the improvements by returning Wieters, Manny, and Davis to the lineup. We won 96 games last year, with these guys replacing lesser batters, things will stay about the same. If it isn't broke, don't fix it. Davis will be back with the medication that improves his concentration. Young was an underutilized DH last year. Lough was batting better in the second half of the season. Schloop was a somewhat struggling rookie last year and should be solid this year AND has the muscle to become another power hitter. It's okay for Cruz to go to the big payday.

#4 We threw the dice on Jimenez and crapped out. It was worth the risk and, who knows, he might get his mojo back this year. We have a valid 6 man rotation and two young aces (Bundy and Gutzman) knocking at the door. We are in good shape with strength in the back end of the rotation. I am hoping for a rash of pitcher injuries elsewhere in spring training, which would allow us to trade off 1-2 starting or near starting pictures for good position player minor leaguers with upside, in order to restock the pipeline. Maybe some of the lesser know depth pitchers will step up and we could then trade away Norris, Chen, McFarlan or Gonsalez and a depth guy for an Adam Jones type prospect.

#5 Pearce BA 0.293, OBP 0.373, SLB 0.566 21 HR is a reserve.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm mildly disappointed only because I hoped the front office would do something nobody saw coming that did not triage the farm or blow the budget.

But this team is pretty much what I expected and that is pretty good. Worlds better those dark years.

Travis snider could be the move I was hoping for or he could be David Lough part 2.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...