Jump to content

Davis to Try Bunting vs. Shift


TonySoprano

Recommended Posts

The net effect is likely much worse as it doesn't take into account the strikes and deep counts that the batter is put in and doesn't bunt.

The rate of ROE is pretty high on bunt attempts so it's not entirely out of the question that they balance out in some situations. It's certainly not something you do regularly, but bases empty with good hitters in front of you? It's a nice way to keep defenses honest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 73
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'd love, love, love to see Davis start bunting against the shift, especially early in the season to (hopefully) scare teams off from shifting so much against him.

Having him change his swing to try to slap balls the opposite way is a mistake imo. Few hitters, and almost no power hitters can really control a bat that well, and pop ups to LF do him no good (as the outfield doesn't shift).

And I'll take a 50% success rate on bunts with the lineup we have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The net effect is likely much worse as it doesn't take into account the strikes and deep counts that the batter is put in and doesn't bunt.

Offset by a possible de-emphasized shift giving Davis more room to drive the ball to RF?

I'm not saying Davis should bunt every time a shift is put on him, but its a valuable weapon when getting on base at a high rate is more valuable then a small chance at a solo homer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some teams have adjusted the shift for guys that prove they can bunt against it. They play the 3rd baseman in at third and give up the shortstop hole while playing the SS and 2B in normal shift positions. It's a lot harder to shoot one through that hole than it is to get a decent bunt down.

And failing to get the bunt down and getting in the hole definitely tempers that .555 avg.

I still think you try to take it if they give it to you. No on, no out once in a while or no on, down 2 or more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exactly what I came in here to say. I can't believe he can't learn to go the opposite field. Bunting seems extreme, though he's fairly fast for a big guy.

It's not that easy, the shift is more than just the defensive alignment. The opposition is also pitching to the shift, so he's not getting pitches to work with if going opposite field is his intention. Unless you're a Tony Gwynn type hitter, you're probably not gonna be able to go opposite field against the shift all that often. Basically, the only way Davis is beating the shift regularly is hitting it to the outfield or hitting it out.

But if you get Davis up there bunting, you've already won that matchup. I'm sure teams would love a guy like Davis up there dropping bunts. I commend his desire to address a shortcoming though. I just don't know if he's gonna bunt enough to make anybody respect it. I might be more into it depending on what spots 6-9 are doing. If they can make people pay for not getting Davis out, then fine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But if you get Davis up there bunting, you've already won that matchup. I'm sure teams would love a guy like Davis up there dropping bunts.

No, I don't think that's true. If he can reach on a bunt 50% of the time (or even less) that's far fewer outs than he would make even hitting into a non-shifted defense. This is a little like the Barry Bonds IBB madness - at his peak he was reaching base roughly 50% of the time without the IBBs, but teams decided it was better for them if they let him reach base 100% of the time to avoid the 15% of the time he hit a homer. The math never worked out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In case anybody is wondering, Davis laid down two bunts last season and one resulted in a base hit. Prior to last season he had never bunted in a Major League game.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9272&position=1B#advanced

David Ortiz has 6 bunt hits on 12 attempts over his career, with only one attempt total over the last two seasons, and two attempts total over the last four seasons.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=745&position=DH#advanced

I see what you're saying here... if Davis bunted all the time he would hit .500. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Will <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> Chris Davis bunt more against the shift this year? Here's him dropping some down 3B line in practice. <a href="http://t.co/QsgTQv5Krw">pic.twitter.com/QsgTQv5Krw</a></p>— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) <a href="

">February 26, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Link to comment
Share on other sites

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Will <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> Chris Davis bunt more against the shift this year? Here's him dropping some down 3B line in practice. <a href="http://t.co/QsgTQv5Krw">pic.twitter.com/QsgTQv5Krw</a></p>— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) <a href="
">February 26, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

As long as every pitch is coming in at 75-80 miles an hour, it looks like he will be good!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As long as every pitch is coming in at 75-80 miles an hour, it looks like he will be good!

I'd like to see him get plenty of bunts in during ST against real pitching. Just the perception that he will bunt at a highly successful rate may be enough to make teams adjust the shift against him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, I don't think that's true. If he can reach on a bunt 50% of the time (or even less) that's far fewer outs than he would make even hitting into a non-shifted defense. This is a little like the Barry Bonds IBB madness - at his peak he was reaching base roughly 50% of the time without the IBBs, but teams decided it was better for them if they let him reach base 100% of the time to avoid the 15% of the time he hit a homer. The math never worked out.

Some stats showed that it actually worked out quite well in certain base/out situations. Tom Tango used to have a chart of when to walk Barry Bonds, and the chart had a surprisingly high number of base/out states that called for a walk. Namely, late in the game, runners on but first base open, Bonds represents the winning or tying run, you pretty much always want to walk him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 months later...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...