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Davis to Try Bunting vs. Shift


TonySoprano

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I like it. But it's not totally unselfish. 1-2 extra hits a week will make that batting average look good for free agency. So it's a win for win. Just got to not hit into double plays after he does.

If there was ever a team sport where selfishness and winning are not mutually exclusive.. it's baseball.

Anything that raises CD's value is a good thing for this year's O's.

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If there was ever a team sport where selfishness and winning are not mutually exclusive.. it's baseball.

Anything that raises CD's value is a good thing for this year's O's.

I'm surprised what a good bunter Davis is. Before seeing him bunt, I thought he would bunt like a novice, basically telegraphing that he was going to bunt. I'm not sure why he doesn't bunt more. An extra hit or 2 a week would probably add 30 points or more to his average (rough estimate). In situations where the O's are down by more than one run, its a great idea. Davis has about 6x the likelihood of striking at as hitting a HR, so its a good bet in a lot of situations.

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I'm surprised what a good bunter Davis is. Before seeing him bunt, I thought he would bunt like a novice, basically telegraphing that he was going to bunt. I'm not sure why he doesn't bunt more. An extra hit or 2 a week would probably add 30 points or more to his average (rough estimate). In situations where the O's are down by more than one run, its a great idea. Davis has about 6x the likelihood of striking at as hitting a HR, so its a good bet in a lot of situations.

It's game theory. If Davis bunted several times a week or more, in similar situations, the defense would realign itself to account for that and take the option away. Or at least make it a much less attractive proposition. But that would slightly open up the field for him to hit away more effectively.

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Davis has 2 bunt hits in the last week. And that crazy looking thing tonight was nearly a double. Great to see him taking what they're giving.

Even better was that he stuck with it after missing on the first pitch. MANY times in the last two years he has tried on strike one and given up (but then he has put himself in an 0-1 hole). Bottom line, if the shift is affecting him this much, he needs to succeed with this, as many times as it takes.

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It's game theory. If Davis bunted several times a week or more, in similar situations, the defense would realign itself to account for that and take the option away. Or at least make it a much less attractive proposition. But that would slightly open up the field for him to hit away more effectively.

I assume that's the idea, right? Do it just often enough to try and get teams to relax their shifts against him and open up more holes on the right side.

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Heck, if they keep playing that far off of the line he would be stupid not to do it almost every time. Yes, he is giving up power but he almost any decent bunt is going to be a hit. He might be able to do that more than 1/2 of the time with practice.

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Heck, if they keep playing that far off of the line he would be stupid not to do it almost every time. Yes, he is giving up power but he almost any decent bunt is going to be a hit. He might be able to do that more than 1/2 of the time with practice.

Bunting for a single in 40% of your attempts is essentially the same rate of production as hitting away and ending up with a .250/.350/525 line.

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Bunting for a single in 40% of your attempts is essentially the same rate of production as hitting away and ending up with a .250/.350/525 line.

If you are successful 40% of the time, you are batting .400 not .250. With no thesis baseman that may be possible, unless somehow you are making a distinction between attempts and at-bats.

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If you are successful 40% of the time, you are batting .400 not .250. With no thesis baseman that may be possible, unless somehow you are making a distinction between attempts and at-bats.

He is saying the value of hitting .400 with no extra base hits is equivalent to hitting 250 with a 350 OBA and a 525 slugging.

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If you are successful 40% of the time, you are batting .400 not .250. With no thesis baseman that may be possible, unless somehow you are making a distinction between attempts and at-bats.
That's 40% of his PA. But it's hyperbole as usual. He doesn't come up in that situation 40% of the time.
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Davis is averaging a HR every 16.7 at bats. Let's say that on his bunt attempts that he's 8/10. If the lead off runner reaches base he scores around 50% of the time. So just by simple math you're looking at him scoring a run in 40% of his bases empty, no out situations, as opposed to what less than 10% of those same at bats. Just using simple math. So not only does it quadruple our chances of scoring a run in those situations it might eventually affect how the defense plays him. Plus the not measurable amount of confidence he would gain after each successful opportunity. :thumbsup1::scratchchinhmm:

This is just thinking about the HR. Of course he could walk, single, double, triple or reach on error. Obviously someone way better at word problems and math needs to do this. Well since he's laying down bunts I'm sure they O's have already had an analytic's person do just that.

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He is saying the value of hitting .400 with no extra base hits is equivalent to hitting 250 with a 350 OBA and a 525 slugging.

Exactly. That's all I'm saying. If Davis bunts every once in a while and gets four hits in 10 PAs while bunting that's more-or-less the same as swinging away and OPSing .875. You don't have to bunt .500 or .800 or something to make it worthwhile.

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