Bud Norris, and are models of the value of WAR really useful?

[Frobby]

On pretty much a daily basis, we read about whether a player is worth his salary, and we hear rules of thumb like one WAR is worth $6 mm on today's market, etc. But the more I see of what actually goes on in the setting of salaries, I don't think there is much if any linear relationship between WAR and salary.

I was interested in the case of Bud Norris, and how salaries get set in arbitrations, as opposed to free agency. This year, there were 10 starting pitchers who were in their last year of arbitration eligibility. This chart shows their salary, service time, 2014 and career rWAR and fWAR values, and the ratios between salary and 2014 and career WAR values:

Player Name	Salary	Service	rWAR	rWARc	fWAR	fWARc	S/rWAR	S/rWARc	S/fWAR	S/fWARcDavid Price	19.8	5.164	4.6	23.2	6.1	24.9	4.30	0.85	3.25	0.80Rick Porcello	12.5	5.171	4.1	10.6	3.1	15.3	3.05	1.18	4.03	0.82Doug Fister	11.4	5.058	4.5	18.9	1.3	17.4	2.53	0.60	8.77	0.66Ian Kennedy	9.9	5.124	1.4	9.8	2.9	13.9	7.07	1.01	3.41	0.71Jeff Samardzija	9.8	5.028	3.7	6.8	4.1	9.9	2.65	1.44	2.39	0.99Mike Leake	9.8	5.001	1.5	6.2	1.9	6.7	6.53	1.58	5.16	1.46Matt Latos	9.4	5.079	0.9	13.8	1.5	16.1	10.44	0.68	6.27	0.58Bud Norris	8.8	5.068	1.9	6.1	1.5	9.3	4.63	1.44	5.87	0.95Alfredo Simon	5.5	5.142	1.9	3.8	0.9	1.2	2.89	1.45	6.11	4.58Jhoulys Chacin	5.5	5.012	0.1	14.1	0.4	11.1	55.00	0.39	13.75	0.50TOTALS for all	102.4		24.6	113.3	23.7	125.8	4.16	0.90	4.32	0.81

Can you make sense of it? Is there any discernible pattern at all? Did we overpay or underpay Bud Norris compared to the other pitchers on this list?

[Babypowder]

The 6M per win model is only applicable to free agency. I haven't seen anyone even attempt to come up with a model meant to apply to arb. eligible players yet. Likely because there is no discernible pattern because the arbitration process isn't heavily based on a player's on field value.

[webbrick2010]

Looking at the ratios, seem Bud was an overpay, but I like having "too much" starting pitching. Bud Norris alone wasn't going to bring a quality LF'er or DH so may as well pay him for another year. If everything is going perfectly among the SP'ers and the offense is scuttling can look to trade someone in July