Pessimists, Optimists: who has a better case?

[Oriole1940]

Unless any of us are fortunetellers and can forsee the future with a great deal of accuracy, we may have to wait till sometime BEFORE the ASG to really answer the thread question. Buck will get the most out of his team, regardless of what hand he is dealt.

[oriole]

I think it's a wash in the end. We lost Nelson but we're gaining Manny and Wieters. Davis and Hardy will likely hit better. De Aza hit well after coming over here and Snider finished well too so it's not unreasonable to think they can continue in that trend. Plus Cruz had one of his best seasons so even if he was coming back that'd be a stretch to project the same numbers. We're fine.

I think an upgrade at 2b is in dire need but that's all I really disagree with going into the season.

[waroriole]

I dont think we have the best player at any position.

By the end of the year, I think we will at 3B.

[tntoriole]

Some people complain about the lack of any significant moves this offseason. We were in the ALCS, time to put the pedal down, invest and finish off the still woozy AL East while we have the chance.

Some others defend DD's typical depth moves and non-exciting pick ups as just the tinkering we need since we're coming off a 96-win season and getting back some significant healthy, able bodies.

Still others just see the world through orange-colored glasses and say "Go O's!" knowing this team will be competitive and hopefully "give us a chance to roll the dice in October" as Buck says. This crowd tends to be more fun to hang with, BTW.

So since our big losses were to the offense (Miller was only a 2-month rental), I wanted to put down how this team performed by position and then see who clearly has a better case, the Optimists or the Pessimists.

So in 2015 would you take 2014's offense from which position?

The Catcher position? .678 OPS featuring a .287 OBP. The Optimists for 2015 are off to a strong start.

2014 1B production was good for the 5th ranking in the AL with a .221/.316/.441/.757 slash line. Not bad, actually. But do note it was propped up by a .939 OPS from Pearce at first, accounting for a third of the ABs (Davis hit .701 in 379 ABs). The Optimists have a case here, too.

At 2B, we had a whopping .618 OPS from Jon Schoop, mostly. Good for 13th out of the 15 AL clubs. Stand down, Pessimists, stand down.

2014 3B saw the O's deliver a .250/.300/.401/.701 slash line. Manny gave us a .755 OPS in 327 ABs. Smart money is on the Optimists again.

Over at short, JJ's tweaked back was behind a team .687 OPS (.268/.311/.376). The Pessimists point out it was good for the 5th best performance at SS in the league. The Optimists sorta point and say 30, 22, 25, 9? Something tells me they expect more pop from a healthy JJ, and are happy with the D even if they don't get it.

The outfield is where things get interesting.

In LF, 2014 got a .828 OPS thanks to Nellie. Good for the top-ranked LF production in the AL. But a closer look at the numbers shows De Aza (.888 OPS), Pearce (.825) and even Delmon (.761) contributed to the overall output. Lough was terrible and brought the numbers down, of course. The Optimists then go in for the kill: Nellie only logged 226 ABs in left and the left-over trio above combined for 254.

Jones owned CF, and gave us the 4th ranked output there. The overall .762 OPS was down from his personal numbers thanks to Lough, again. Even Pessimists would have trouble predicting we do worse in CF.

In Right comes another surprise. We ranked 3rd with an .762 OPS which is hey, wait. That's what we got out of CF where our star player plays. The reason isn't that Nick was much better in context of the league than we all thought. It was that Pearce and Nellie got enough ABs in RF to make a difference, and killed the ball when they did. So more of Pearce, no Nellie but then add Snider who had a .776 OPS, and hit .880 after the all-star game. The Optimists probably have RF, too.

At DH, we got a .796 OPS in 2014 and that was most definitely delivered by the big bat of Cruz. The Optimists are expecting some combo of Pearce, Snider, Delmon and possibly Wieters to match that, but it's hard to agree with them here. The most likely drop-off in production should be at DH (I'm looking at the .332 OBP alone and it's hard to imagine hitting that, much less the .464 slugging to boot).

So my own wrap up has the Optimists clearly taking C, 2B, 3B, and probably taking 1B, SS and RF.

The Pessimists clearly lay claim to DH and probably take LF.

CF is a push.

The Optimists will point out that they have many positions where they can improve over last year significantly and therefore have a better chance of "making up" for the drops at DH and LF. They would also note that in LF three of the players who contributed to last year's good numbers are still on the roster, and a fourth, Lough, had a great second half after his concussion symptoms subsided.

Gee, can you guess which camp I'm in?

Luckily Spring is here, P & C's are reporting soon and this can all be settled on the field, in the AL East and all summer.

Now pass me those orange-colored glasses, I have a "Go O's!" chant to start.

It is all about the pitching. If we pitch well, we will win the AL East and beyond. If we don't, we won't. We will have more than enough offense, but pitching and defense wins pennants.

[Ven6]

It is all about the pitching. If we pitch well, we will win the AL East and beyond. If we don't, we won't. We will have more than enough offense, but pitching and defense wins pennants.

My baseball philosophy agrees with you. But in terms of change from 2014 to 2015 as it relates to players and the offseason, pitching isn't the story.

[OFFNY]

The optimists think we have the best player in the league at every position. The pessimists think everything will go wrong. I give the edge to the realists.

I challenge you to find ONE poster who has said anything close to this ...

Perhaps Cindy, who rarely posts these days.

Outside of that, I don't believe that there is one.

[OFFNY]

The optimists think we have the best player in the league at every position. The pessimists think everything will go wrong. I give the edge to the realists.

I don't think we have the best player at any position.

Weams, you homer. I wish that you would be more realistic.

[Ven6]

So the Pessimists, normally the loudest and most rambunctuous of O's fans, are pretty quiet. Interesting.

[Babypowder]

By the end of the year, I think we will at 3B.

Did Josh Donaldson cease to exist?

[Stotle]

If you project the O's to have career ave. years you would have to be optimistic. So which O's do you think will have below career ave. years. pessimists?

If that's the case then why is it that the projection systems, which tend to correct to career averages, don't seem to like the Orioles in 2015?

[Can_of_corn]

If that's the case then why is it that the projection systems, which tend to correct to career averages, don't seem to like the Orioles in 2015?

Why didn't they like the Orioles in 2014?

[Stotle]

Why didn't they like the Orioles in 2014?

I would guess they didn't predict Baltimore would outperform its aggregate average production? Also, they didn't predict the rest of the division would struggle/get injured/underperform its aggregate average production?

[Can_of_corn]

I would guess they didn't predict Baltimore would outperform its aggregate average production? Also, they didn't predict the rest of the division would struggle/get injured/underperform its aggregate average production?

And in 2013?

2012?

Recent history isn't in their favor when it comes to the O's.

[weams]

Why didn't they like the Orioles in 2014?

Why didn't they like the Orioles in 2012? Or 2013?

[weams]

And in 2013?

2012?

Recent history isn't in their favor when it comes to the O's.

Jinx