Top 2008 Draft Prospects: Aaron Crow

[napbow]

I am really hoping the Crow, Melville and Hosmer have great seasons. If they do, I feel our chances of grabbing either Alvarez or Beckham shoot up dramitically.

These are my predictions for the draft

#1 - Crow, Hosmer or Melville

- Tampa has Brignac and Longoria at 3rd and SS and when Hosmer is ready to play, they can move Pena. And as always, you can never have enough pitching

#2 - Alvarez or Beckham

- the new regime is drafting one of the two

#3 - Crow or Melville (Royals go for the local guy)

#4 - Alvarez or Beckham

- I embarrass my fiance by starting O's chants at the bar all night. I think I may be the only person in Annapolis under 30 that still follows the Orioles.

[OSfanfromCT]

Key: (X) is their age at the time of the 2008 Draft

4. Aaron Crow {College RHSP } (21). Missouri right-hander Aaron Crow really burst onto the scene during his dominating Cape Cod season (Collegiate Wood Bat League) this past fall. At 6' 2 215, he is not overly big, but is a solid athlete and easily repeats his mechanics, which may contribute to why his command of a low to mid-nineties fastball (which has hit 98 occasionally) has been outstanding. Crow led the league with a miniscule ERA of 0.67 and has a solid reportoire of secondary pitches, with a slider and change both grading out as average to above-average.

While his Cape campaign was very impressive, his college season was merely good. He was the Tigers' Friday night starter (#1) and threw 117.2 innings in 18 starts, striking out 90.

Crow reminds me a bit of Mike Mussina, and if he picks up where his Cape stint left off during the coming college season, he has the chance to go #1 overall.

Greg's Grade (1-100) = 87

Next up> College 1B Justin Smoak.

Great stuff as always, Greg. Don't remember seeing it already, but wondering if you were the Orioles and had the first pick of the draft, who would be your top choice as of now? I remember you saying that, statistically, top high school bats tend to have the greatest chance of succeeding in the majors. If that is in fact true, do you go after beckham?

[Greg Pappas]

Great stuff as always, Greg. Don't remember seeing it already, but wondering if you were the Orioles and had the first pick of the draft, who would be your top choice as of now? I remember you saying that, statistically, top high school bats tend to have the greatest chance of succeeding in the majors. If that is in fact true, do you go after beckham?

Were I choosing first overall and had to choose right at this moment, it would be Alvarez.

Bats in general are safer bets regardless of college or high school.

[Greg Pappas]

If neither's potential is greater than Tillman's, I'll take my chances on Loewen, Tillman, and a few other of our young arms panning out, and take my chances on a positional player with the 4th pick.

With this draft being solid on good power bats, I think it'll be a good time to bypass more pitching and take the hitter's route.

So you're not sold on Yonder Alonso, huh? Is his defense that bad?

I'm sold on his bat, but not sold on his defensive abilities to man 1B. Alonso is like a Jim Thome-type prospect with even worse defensive skills. I don't believe Alonso will ever be the hitter Thome is (just using him as a comparison).

[Greg Pappas]

None of these guys profile as a sure fire ace, ala Price last year or a Verlander type. At the very least a guy at number 4 should have two very definite Plus pitches. Not average to above average, which is pretty generic in prospect profile books. Not that these guys don't have good possibilities, but a Bat at this point looks safer.

I agree that at this juncture it's difficult to compare any of the three to Price; however, any of the three could potentially be Aces in their own right. Only time will tell.

Given three years to show what he can do, Melville could project as good or better than Price; although, as with all high schoolers, that sort of consideration should be tempered.

[wayne25]

I agree that at this juncture it's difficult to compare any of the three to Price; however, any of the three could potentially be Aces in their own right. Only time will tell.

Given three years to show what he can do, Melville could project as good or better than Price; although, as with all high schoolers, that sort of consideration should be tempered.

True, but we have to make a selection in 4 months. So even though you project for all prospects, you have to compare to what Price was at the time of the draft , when he was selected # 1. At #4 we need a no doubt about it # 1 or we go for a bat. Just my thought.

[Greg Pappas]

True, but we have to make a selection in 4 months. So even though you project for all prospects, you have to compare to what Price was at the time of the draft , when he was selected # 1. At #4 we need a no doubt about it # 1 or we go for a bat. Just my thought.

Very few draft choices are 'sure bets', whether bats or tossers. However, we are in agreement that we'd prefer (again, at this point) to see the O's choose a position player at #4.

[rhall]

Everyone (on OH) has been talking about Eric Hosmer, but lets not forget about the other elite talents...

Aaron Crow just put on a show against Toledo and won InsidePitching.com Midwest Region Performance of the Week.

Complete game shutout, 7 hits, 0 walks, 15 strikeouts... pretty impressive and even more so when you read the fine print. Baseball Prospectus points out that, astonishingly, he only threw 107 pitches in the game and 87 of them for strikes. He was helped by some extra outs (1 DP and 3 caught stealings), but the pitch count was kept low even moreso by his averaging only 3.45 pitchers per batter - amazing with 15 strikeouts.

If he keeps this up, he'll be messing with all our mock drafts that have Alvarez, Beckham and Smoak going top 3.

[Greg Pappas]

Everyone (on OH) has been talking about Eric Hosmer, but lets not forget about the other elite talents...

Aaron Crow just put on a show against Toledo and won InsidePitching.com Midwest Region Performance of the Week.

Complete game shutout, 7 hits, 0 walks, 15 strikeouts... pretty impressive and even more so when you read the fine print. Baseball Prospectus points out that, astonishingly, he only threw 107 pitches in the game and 87 of them for strikes. He was helped by some extra outs (1 DP and 3 caught stealings), but the pitch count was kept low even moreso by his averaging only 3.45 pitchers per batter - amazing with 15 strikeouts.

If he keeps this up, he'll be messing with all our mock drafts that have Alvarez, Beckham and Smoak going top 3.

Great post. With my Aunt passing away this past week, I've been a bit behind updating here... but Crow is looking very good indeed, and is #2 on my rankings at http://www.mlb-draft.com/

[rhall]

Here's his stat line so far...

Player                 ERA   W-L   APP  GS  CG SHO/CBO SV   IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO43 Crow, Aaron......  1.38   4-0     4   4   1   1/0    0  26.0  23  4   4   4  41

Those K/9 and K/BB ratios are very impressive. Crow and Matusz (below) are showing why they're the top 2 college pitchers in the nation.

Player                 ERA   W-L   APP  GS  CG SHO/CBO SV    IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO  2B  3B  HR   AB B/Avg   WP HBP  BK  SFA SHA17 Matusz, Brian....  2.60   3-1     5   4   1   1/0    0  27.2  23   9   8  10  39   4   1   1  103  .223    2   2   0    1   0

[rhall]

Great post. With my Aunt passing away this past week, I've been a bit behind updating here... but Crow is looking very good indeed, and is #2 on my rankings at http://www.mlb-draft.com/

I'm sorry to hear about that. No worries on the lack of updates.

I have checked out your website though. Cool stuff.

[Greg Pappas]

I'm sorry to hear about that. No worries on the lack of updates.

I have checked out your website though. Cool stuff.

Been a rough few months in my family; that's four months in a row we've had a loss. December, January, February, March...

'The times that matter most come and go... like mist in the morning. And far too often we fail to realize we were breathing... Alive, in the magic and pain of our lives.'

Thanks bro... I am still seeking help with it and have been updating there regularly. BTW, anyone with good research/web skills with some free time and an interest in being a MLB-Draft.com staffer, PM me.

[rhall]

On 3/21 Crow continued to dominate hitters.

Against Baylor he threw another complete game shutout with 3 hits allowed, 3 walks and 10 strikeouts. He threw 109 pitches.

I had some reservations about Crow being that great coming into this year; primarily because his strikeout rate didn't reflect his "stuff" and because his status was inflated from the summer Cape league, which is a smaller sample size than his 2 years of college ball before that. But he has silenced this critic. He has been throwing great. He retired the last 8 batters he faced, striking out the last 5. Two complete game shutouts in a row lower his season era to 1.03.

[Greg Pappas]

On 3/21 Crow continued to dominate hitters.

Against Baylor he threw another complete game shutout with 3 hits allowed, 3 walks and 10 strikeouts. He threw 109 pitches.

I had some reservations about Crow being that great coming into this year; primarily because his strikeout rate didn't reflect his "stuff" and because his status was inflated from the summer Cape league, which is a smaller sample size than his 2 years of college ball before that. But he has silenced this critic. He has been throwing great. He retired the last 8 batters he faced, striking out the last 5. Two complete game shutouts in a row lower his season era to 1.03.

Great update, thanks as always.

[wayne25]

What is considered a "safe number of innings for a college starter in the warm weather states(college):? The way Crow is going with these complete games this early in the season, I was just wondering? Don't want another Hale on or hands. ( a first round selection that was worked to death in college)