Tony-OH on Scott and Jeremy 105.7 at 5 PM today

[wildcard]

It is really putting the cart before the horse to manage a kid with a "195 inning cap" in April to make sure he has innings left for October.

Of course the 30 inning "Verducci effect" has been pretty thoroughly debunked.

The O's managed Gausman innings last year from the beginning of the season.

[Can_of_corn]

The O's managed Gausman innings last year from the begin of the season.

Yep, but like I said, odds are good he doesn't hit 200 even if they use him normally. It is a different ballgame when you are looking at say a 170 cap. I think it would be a much better choice to worry about it after the all star break if it does end up being an issue.

[wildcard]

Yep, but like I said, odds are good he doesn't hit 200 even if they use him normally. It is a different ballgame when you are looking at say a 170 cap. I think it would be a much better choice to worry about it after the all star break if it does end up being an issue.

Well if the O's do manage his innings they will probably target 180 during the regular season and 15 in the post season.

I agree that the 30 inning increase is just a target. Wallace and Buck will make the call on whether he can go farther.

[Just Regular]

Gausman's player comment in this year's BP book talked pretty specifically about how the Orioles solved the "Strasburg problem" but managing the shutdown to the beginning of the season.

I can see conserving a few April starts just to hedge against Gausman being too good for his own good. If he explodes and averages 6.5 IP/start because he's that good, that's 210 regular season innings.

[Tony-OH]

"Even Andrew Miller wasn't Andrew Miller before he was Andrew Miller"

Best part of the segment!

Thanks.. I'm getting that trademarked! lol

[Tony-OH]

Tony, you are OK with using a QO on Norris? Would like to understand rationale there with already a surplus of starters and Bundy needing to be on 2016 staff.

I like Norris, I really do, but it will depend on whether the Orioles think they have his replacement in house and cheaper. My guess is he's gone after this year unless the Orioles fall out of the race for some reason this year then I think he could be moved at the trading deadline. I think he's going to end up a compensation pick for us because even though I think they'll definitely give him QO if he has a good year, he won't accept it because he'll get more on the open market.

[Tony-OH]

That would be, but it probably won't be necessary to even do that much.

In 2014 the O's had one pitcher hit 195 innings, in 2013 they had one pitcher hit 195 innings, in 2012 they had zero pitchers hit 195 innings, in 2011 they had one pitcher hit 195 innings.

So in four full seasons under Buck you have three seasons of 195 innings. Now what are the chances the O's will have to manage Gausman's innings?

You certainly don't worry about it in April.

I agree here. Gausman no longer needs to have his innings managed and if he's in the rotation he can stay there all year without issues.

[weams]

I like Norris, I really do, but it will depend on whether the Orioles think they have his replacement in hourse and cheaper. My guess is he's gone after this year aunless the Orioles fall out of the race for some reason this year then I think he could be moved at the trading deadline. I think he's going to end up a compensation pick for us because even though I think they'll definitely give him QO if he has a good year, he won't accept it because he'll get more on the open market.

I heard Scott Boras explain why it would really be quite unusual if any player would accept a Qualifying Offer in it's current configuration. Boras said that the players almost always will have an option to better that amount of money in the market, even if for a lower AAV. He said that they players all want to see what they can get on the open market, after waiting so long and managing their health to get there.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I heard Scott Boras explain why it would really be quite unusual if any player would accept a Qualifying Offer in it's current configuration. Boras said that the players almost always will have an option to better that amount of money in the market, even if for a lower AAV. He said that they players all want to see what they can get on the open market, after waiting so long and managing their health to get there.

I've been told no player has ever accepted one. Is this true?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Frobby]

That would be, but it probably won't be necessary to even do that much.

In 2014 the O's had one pitcher hit 195 innings, in 2013 they had one pitcher hit 195 innings, in 2012 they had zero pitchers hit 195 innings, in 2011 they had one pitcher hit 195 innings.

So in four full seasons under Buck you have three seasons of 195 innings. Now what are the chances the O's will have to manage Gausman's innings?

You certainly don't worry about it in April.

I think your point is this: the Orioles will be lucky to have the problem of needing to manage Gausman's innings. I agree with this. He only averaged 5.67 IP/start last year, and that wasn't because his innings were being managed, it's because he had trouble getting through 6 IP and beyond and keeping a reasonable pitch count. At that rate, he'd only throw about 180 innings this year over 32 starts. If he cracks 190, it will only be because he has remained healthy all year and has become capable of remaining effective deeper in games, which would be great news for us. I'll take the problem of needing to manage Gausman's innings any day.

I don't think the track record over the last four years says much about Buck's trends as a manager, however. It says more about the pitchers he had available to use. Gonzo, Chen and Norris are all reasonably effective pitchers, but they are all guys who tend to run out of gas a bit early. If they replicate their effectiveness from last year, I'll gladly live with that problem, too.

[wildcard]

I think your point is this: the Orioles will be lucky to have the problem of needing to manage Gausman's innings. I agree with this. He only averaged 5.67 IP/start last year, and that wasn't because his innings were being managed, it's because he had trouble getting through 6 IP and beyond and keeping a reasonable pitch count. At that rate, he'd only throw about 180 innings this year over 32 starts. If he cracks 190, it will only be because he has remained healthy all year and has become capable of remaining effective deeper in games, which would be great news for us. I'll take the problem of needing to manage Gausman's innings any day.

I don't think the track record over the last four years says much about Buck's trends as a manager, however. It says more about the pitchers he had available to use. Gonzo, Chen and Norris are all reasonably effective pitchers, but they are all guys who tend to run out of gas a bit early. If they replicate their effectiveness from last year, I'll gladly live with that problem, too.

We are talking about a high first round draft choice with a high ceiling who will be coached by David Wallace. In his second full season it is very likely that he improves his innings/start. And if the O's want him for 3 or 5 starts in the postseason, managing his innings will probably be required IMO.

[Frobby]

We are talking about a high first round draft choice with a high ceiling who will be coached by David Wallace. In his second full season it is very likely that he improves his innings/start. And if the O's want him for 3 or 5 starts in the postseason, managing his innings will probably be required IMO.

I didn't mean to suggest that Gausman can't or won't improve his IP/start, or otherwise improve. I'm just saying that's a problem I hope to have. I'd also like to have the problem of needing to have Gausman available for 3 to 5 postseason starts. Sign me up for needing to deal with both of those problems right now! But I'm not going to worry about it much until Gausman has made 8-10 starts and is trending in a direction where this could be an issue.

[weams]

Thanks.. I'm getting that trademarked! lol

It really was excellent. And you should.

[Dipper9]

"Even Andrew Miller wasn't Andrew Miller before he was Andrew Miller"

Best part of the segment!

That line was fantastic. Tony is really smooth in these segments and presents more information in 5 minute than any of the other guests ever do.

As for the 6 starter discussion, my what a long way this team has come since the days of Ponson being our number 1 and tying to find 4 others to slot behind him.

[wildcard]

I didn't mean to suggest that Gausman can't or won't improve his IP/start, or otherwise improve. I'm just saying that's a problem I hope to have. I'd also like to have the problem of needing to have Gausman available for 3 to 5 postseason starts. Sign me up for needing to deal with both of those problems right now! But I'm not going to worry about it much until Gausman has made 8-10 starts and is trending in a direction where this could be an issue.

I think the O's have to plan for the post season when managing pitchers this year. Gausman could be a difference maker. Otherwise their pitching is not much different from last year when they could get passed the league championship series.