My Spring O's Projections

[wildcard]

2015 projections as the Spring Training Games begins

(It may change by Opening Day)

The O's are a well staffed team that has achieved success in the past few years. There is no reason for that to stop. I project the O's to make the playoffs again in 2015 and win the AL East again with 100 wins.

The progress of the O's in 2014 was led by one man. And he is not a player or a manager. His name is Dave Wallace, pitching coach. The O's offense didn't change that much from 2013 to 2014 but the pitching did. The team dropped from a 4.20 ERA to 3.43 ERA, a 77 point improvement. It was Wallace's ability to get the pitchers to believe in his advice and then adjust their pitching mix, mechanics and approach that made the difference. As Wallace gained the pitchers confidence the staff's ERA dropped.

April 4.64 ERA

May 4.00 ERA

June 3.43 ERA

July 2.96 ERA

August 3.08 ERA

September 2.67 ERA

Wallace has built his foundation with the pitching staff and Dan Duquette brought everyone back but Andrew Miller. I expect the O's to lower their ERA in April and May which will lead to a better over team ERA than last year. National writers and projections based on saber metrics don't believe in the Wallace factor. They see the O's pitcher's improvement as a lucky happenstance for the O's and expect regression. I have watched great pitching coaches work before. George Bamberger and Ray Miller were difference makers for years for the O's. Wallace belongs in that category not only for the work he did last year but also for what he has done in the past.

I will project the O's pitchers to do what they did last year with the exception of Gausman who will be in the rotation from the beginning of the season and we will have the pleasure of watching his great stuff turn him into an ace right before our eyes.

Tillman 13-6, 3.43 ERA 34S, 207 IP

Chen 16-6, 3.54 ERA, 31S, 185 IP

Gausman, 14-7, 3.30 ERA, 30S, 180 IP

Norris, 15-8, 3.65 ERA, 28S, 165 IP

Gonzalez, 10-9, 3.23 ERA, 26S, 159 IP

Jimenez, 6-9, 4.81 ERA, 13S, 125 IP (also pitches in long relief)

Britton 3-2, 1.65 ERA, 76 IP, 40 Saves

O'Day 5-2, 1.70 ERA, 68 IP

Hunter 3-2, 2.97 ERA, 60 IP

Brach 7-1, 3.18 ERA, 62 IP

W. Wright 0-3, 3.17 ERA, 48 IP

Garcia 2-2, 4.20 ERA, 30 IP

McFarland 4-2, 2.67 ERA, 58 IP (on the Norfolk shuttle)

Others 2-3, 4.00 ERA, 38 IP

Totals 100-62, 3.36 ERA, 1461 IP

Offense

Alejandro De Aza LF

leadoff vs righties 496 AB, 68 R, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 21 SB, 272/335/412/747

Probably most effective vs righties with Pearce playing left vs lefties.

Steve Pearce DH/1B/LF/RF

AB 500 AB, 66 R, 24 HR, 71 RBI, 5 SB, 273/359/484/843

Manny or Pearce will probably hit second in the order. I see Pearce with a higher OBP. I can see Pearce getting 210 AB at DH, 165 against lefties while playing left field and about 125 backing up 1B. IMO rightfield is unsettled and Pearce could see some of his DH AB switched over there if Snider underperforms.

Adam Jones CF

3 year avg 649 AB, 97 R, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 12 SB, 284/321/489/810

Solid as a rock. Adam's consistency is amazing.

Chris Davis 1B

3 year avg 516 AB, 81 R, 37 HR, 98 RBI, 3 SB, 254/335/523/858

Chris has his TUE and his hitting coach from Texas. Davis' challenge is to get hits vs the shift. Looking for a decent year considering he great potential. Chris has had some injuries so I can't project him for a 600 AB season. Pearce will be his backup at 1B.

Manny Machado 3B

500 AB, 70 R, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 4 SB, 282/342/458/800

Manny's knee injuries keep me from projecting him to play a full season but he could if healthy. I see his hitting improving in his third full season. Schoop is his backup with Flaherty at AAA. (See Schoop for more on his role)

Matt Wieters C

3 year avg 384 AB, 46 R, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 2 SB, 248/311/433/744

I look for Matt to have a slow start due to being careful with his throwing arm. Right now I think he will be a couple of weeks late starting the season. But Matt will come around in the summer. Buck will not expect him to be a horse this year. Joseph gets a lot of playing time as the backup and Arencibia will spend the first two weeks with the O's but only gets in a few games.

JJ Hardy SS

3 year avg 598 AB, 69 R, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, 255/298/399/697

Hardy finds his power stroke. He is even more of a team leader to go with Adam and Matt with Nick gone.

Travis Snider RF

250 AB, 29 R, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 2 SB, 244/314/388/702

I give Snider about a 33% chance of doing a good job and keeping his spot in right field. His history other than last year does not look good. Right field is one of the spots I see a lot of change over the season.

Everth Cabrera

378 AB, 46 R, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 33 SB, 254/319/335/654 (three year averages)

Cabrera does not look like a leadoff hitter to me. He's more of a 9th place hitter when his 3 year averages are considered. I think that Cabrera and Schoop will share 2B to begin the season. Not a platoon but Buck picking who should play that day. The O's give up some power by sending down Flaherty and playing Cabrera but they gain speed. Cabrera will be a pinch runner when he does not start. Cabrera will backup SS and Schoop will backup 3B. I expect Cabrera to spend some time of the DL.

Jon Schoop 2B

275 AB, 32 R, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 2 SB, 234/269/379/648

I think we will see some improvement in Schoop's offense in 2015 but not enough to keep in the majors all year. He will share 2nd base with Cabrera and backup 3rd base. Though Schoop was not very good as 3rd base last year, he will get instruction from Bobby Dickerson in ST and improve his defense backing up Manny. As the members of the OH have pointed out he has the tools to be a good 3rd baseman and I have to agree with that assessment. I see Schoop going to AAA at some point his season to work on this offense. Flaherty having major league experience will probably not stay in AAA all year.

Caleb Joseph

227 AB, 22 R, 9 HR, 28 RBI, 0 SB, 232/289/379/668

Joseph's defense will keep him as Wieters backup. He will be the starting catcher for most of the first two weeks as Wieters is rehabbing. Joseph improves his offense slightly in his first full year in the majors.

Delmon Young

350 AB, 37 R, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 1 SB, 290/328/442/770

Delmon will DH vs lefties and Buck will expand his role by spotting him vs selected righties. I don't see him in the outfield much if at all.

Ryan Flaherty

55 AB, 5 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 221/281/369/652

Flaherty will draw the short straw to start the season and head to Norfolk to play SS/2B/3B. He will be recalled when Cabrera goes on the DL and when Schoop goes to Norfolk to work on his hitting.

CP Arencibia

10 At Bats 1 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB 204/246/390/636

Arencibia will spend the first two weeks as Joseph backup while Wieters rehabs. His contract will be converted to a major league contract for 2M. After the two weeks he will be optioned to the minors. He will stay there until late May and be traded prior to June 1st when he could opt out.

Lough, Parmelee, Alvarez, Urrutia, Lavarnway, Reimold, Walker or Tuisosopo

409 AB, 40 R, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 2 SB, 240/300/400/700

There are about 400 ABs in rightfield/DH that can go to any combination of these players.

Total 5596 AB, 210 HR, 710 RBI, 87 SB, 262/320/433/753

Runs scored 735

__________________________________________________ _____

How the O's rank in the AL:

3rd in runs

1st in homers

3rd RBI

9th in SB

3th in average

5th in OBP

1st in slugging

2nd in OPS

These are my projection as of the O's beginning of ST games. The games will probably change some of the projection before Opening Day.

What do you think?

[wildcard]

Its only 4 more wins than last year. Boston had Lester and Lackey leading their rotation last year and now they are gone. Tampa traded away their offense and their ace in Price. Toronto balanced out the gain of Donaldson and Martin with the loss of Melky and Lind. They are leaning on rookies at the back of the rotation and old guys at the top of it. The Yankees are still depending on old guys and Tanaka's arm for a full season. I think the O's are the most solid team in the AL East.

[bobmc]

Love your unbridled optimism - keep bringing it 24/7! :hearts:

[Frobby]

No individual projection seems crazy, but they overall lean to the optimistic side, as does the team projection. Hey, I hope these turn out to be correct! I will probably add your OPS projections to my spreadsheet, though my PA assumptions will differ a bit from yours. It will be interesting to see if those differences change the team projected OPS by anything much.

[Guest rochester]

Great read - thanks for all of your hard work!

[wildcard]

No individual projection seems crazy, but they overall lean to the optimistic side, as does the team projection. Hey, I hope these turn out to be correct! I will probably add your OPS projections to my spreadsheet, though my PA assumptions will differ a bit from yours. It will be interesting to see if those differences change the team projected OPS by anything much.

While thinking that my post is optimistic please consider this. I improved the team ERA by 7 point. 3.43 to 3.36 ERA. That's not much.

I say that Cabrera will go on the DL and only play around 100 games. I see Manny and Davis both missing a month. I project De Aza to play almost exclusively against right handed pitching. I expect Snider to fail and be replaced. I see Schoop and Joseph with sub-300 OBPs. I projected Ubaldo to not improve. I only have Wieters getting 384 at bats which means Joseph and his low averages will play a lot.

Bottom line is I say the O's will improve 4% in wins over last year. You may see it as optimistic but I know what negative areas I found as I did the projections and there are many. Many of these things may or may not happen but its not like I tried to be unrealistic.

[weams]

I say that Cabrera will go on the DL and only play around 100 games.

Probably a track record, but that's just guessing. Right?

[neveradoubt]

SP will never win 74 games.

[wildcard]

Melky Cabrera and Adam Lind had a combined 5 WAR last year according to Baseball Reference. Martin and Donaldson had a combined WAR of about 13 last year. I'd hardly call that an even trade off. I'm sure you are expecting big things from Gausman. Marcus Stroman was better last year and is only 23. They also have veterans Buehrle and Dickey, Hutchison who is young and has two years of experience. Their fifth spot is up for grabs. Yes, I don't think they are as deep as us but they could be pretty good.

I agree with most all of this. I will say the back end of their rotation doesn't project well. Hutchison pitches well against the O's but not so good against everyone else. The rookie in the 5th spot in questionable for a contender. The two old guys pitch a lot of innings but neither is an ace at this point. Jensen is gone and I don't know who the new closer will be. Two of the outfield positions are very questionable with Saunders (health) and Pompey.

[wildcard]

Probably a track record, but that's just guessing. Right?

Right. Most of these projections are based on track record.

[wildcard]

SP will never win 74 games.

All I did was take starts away for Jimenez and give them to Gausman. The rest are what they did last year.

That is a pretty funny post for neveradoudt.

[wildcard]

Hutchison threw 184 innings last year with a 3.85 FIP.

But Norris 165 innings. 4.22 FIP

Wei Chen 185 innings. 3.89 FIP

Miguel Gonzalez 159 innings 4.89 FIP

Chris Tillman 207 innings 4.01 FIP

FIP is meaningless with the O's defense.

[weams]

All I did was take starts away for Jimenez and give them to Gausman. The rest are what they did last year.

That is a pretty funny post for neveradoudt.

I would guess that Ubaldo makes more starts than either Kevin Gausman or Miquel Gonzalez on the Orioles this year. Makes fewer relief appearances than Miguel Gonzalez or Kevin Gausman and spends less time in Norfolk than Kevin Gausman and Miguel Gonzalez.

[wildcard]

SP will never win 74 games.

Actually you are right. Some of those wins come from Ubaldo in relief as noted.

[wildcard]

I would guess that Ubaldo makes more starts than either Kevin Gausman or Miquel Gonzalez on the Orioles this year. Makes fewer relief appearances than Miguel Gonzalez or Kevin Gausman and spends less time in Norfolk than Kevin Gausman and Miguel Gonzalez.

Could happen. I guess we will see.