Jonah Keri ranks the Orioles 15th of 30 teams in MLB (but with upside)

[Frobby]

7. Toronto

12. Boston

15. Baltimore

17. Tampa Bay

20. New York

15. Baltimore Orioles

The projection systems have been notoriously pessimistic about Baltimore over the past three years, and they've been spectacularly wrong in two of them. Despite missing the mark in 2012 and 2014, both PECOTA and FanGraphs expect the Orioles to finish last in the AL East in 2015.

For a team that's coming off a 96-win campaign and that lost big bopper Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis over the winter but little else, predicting such a drop-off seems incredibly harsh. Healthy seasons from third baseman Manny Machado and catcher Matt Wieters could do wonders to mitigate Cruz's departure. First baseman Chris Davis isn't going to undercut the Mendoza Line again. Newly acquired outfielder Travis Snider looks a lot like one of Dan Duquette's patented Troy O'Leary-style scrap-heap finds. And Buck Showalter's bullpen handling and other managerial tinkerings always seem to add another few wins to the ledger. With the AL East looking like a crapshoot this year, the O's, if healthy, could easily repeat as division champs - and these rankings could turn out to be way too pessimistic about what has the potential to be a pretty good ballclub.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-30-offseason-mlb-nationals-dodgers-mariners/

Also noted:

When I first started digging into these rankings, two things immediately jumped out at me: (1) There don't appear to be any truly great teams in the American League, and (2) there certainly aren't any in the AL East.

[davidhusker]

I'm okay with 15th, I think we earned the right to be higher by dominating last year, but it is what it is.

These preseason predictions always remind me of the preseason College Football polls and all the discussions that go into them, only Baseball is even harder to predict since there are so many games. Players have down years and breakout years. Steve Pearce goes unmentioned but he was a stud in all of baseball for a good section of the middle of last year.

Obviously we'll get a better indication on where we stand by mid-June or so, but at least some people give us the benefit of the doubt and put us in the "middle" of the pack. He has the Cubs at #9 which is a little crazy at this point, even though they got a couple guys. Oakland I could see completely bombing this season too.

[gmelson26]

Not sure I totally agree with the rankings, but at least we're above both World Series teams. Once again, TOR seems to win the offseason. I don't think I'd rank that team 7th when they are yet to prove they are true winners.

[Mayor McCheese]

Not sure I totally agree with the rankings, but at least we're above both World Series teams. Once again, TOR seems to win the offseason. I don't think I'd rank that team 7th when they are yet to prove they are true winners.

From the article:

Since the calendar has turned to 2015, we're starting off fresh. Last year's results don't matter

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I think its fair to put the Orioles in the middle of the pack. We lost Cruz, Markakis, and Miller but added some serviceable replacements. IMO I don't even know how 2015 is going to go for us.

As far as the Jauys, the addition of Donaldson and Martin make that lineup very tough. They have young talented arms, especially Stroman..... I think its going to be a battle with the Os, Jays, and Sox this year. 84 wins takes the AL East.

[fearthenoodle]

I think the O's ranking is certainly fair. I'd probably have Boston ahead of Toronto, but all 3 teams within 5 or 6 spots overall.

[Scrat1]

Seems pretty fair to me. I think they'll outperform that ranking, but it's a balanced, defensible assessment. Keri does good work.

[Frobby]

As far as the Jauys, the addition of Donaldson and Martin make that lineup very tough. They have young talented arms, especially Stroman..... I think its going to be a battle with the Os, Jays, and Sox this year. 84 wins takes the AL East.

Not a chance that 84 wins takes the AL East. Somebody always steps up.

[Mayor McCheese]

Not a chance that 84 wins takes the AL East. Somebody always steps up.

I think its gonna be a dog fight. Maybe someone gets 87 but its going to be real close.

[LAOSfan]

From the article:

---

I think its fair to put the Orioles in the middle of the pack. We lost Cruz, Markakis, and Miller but added some serviceable replacements. IMO I don't even know how 2015 is going to go for us.

As far as the Jauys, the addition of Donaldson and Martin make that lineup very tough. They have young talented arms, especially Stroman..... I think its going to be a battle with the Os, Jays, and Sox this year. 84 wins takes the AL East.

Don't think there is a chance 84 wins takes the East. It will take at least 90.

[25 Nuggets]

Don't think there is a chance 84 wins takes the East. It will take at least 90.

Agreed, and that's where I have the Orioles.

And it certainly does not look like there are any dominant teams in the AL, no matter the division. The biggest key could be how teams move through the season - which ones improve either on the field or through trades/call ups. It wouldn't surprise me if there is a whole new set of MVP and CYA candidates.

[Frobby]

I think its gonna be a dog fight. Maybe someone gets 87 but its going to be real close.

Well, I can't say it's out of the question, because there have been sub-90 win division title winners many times, and even as low as 83 in fairly recent history (2006 Cards). And, perhaps the AL East is not the juggernaut it once was. Still, it has been a very long time since any team won the AL East without winning 90+ games (the 2000 Yankees were the last, with 87 wins).

[Phantom]

Keri is basically throwing up his hands. He thinks the projection systems are too far down on us, but doesn't believe enough to put us back in the top ten.

Frankly, I sympathize.

[Aristotelian]

15th sounds about right overall. While we lost Cruz and got career years out of Pearce and Norris, we are due for good years from Wieters, Machado, Davis, and Ubaldo. If we can find a way to replace any of Cruz's production, I think you could make a good case for us over DET (lost Smyly, Porcello, and Jackson; replaced Scherzer with Price), PIT,and BOS (lost Lester).

CLE is the big surprise for me at #5. I have a hard time seeing them there, but I wouldn't necessarily say the O's are better. CLE has beaten us pretty good the last couple years and they have a core of good young players hitting their prime. Then again, CLE could easily be 4th in the AL Central.

[MrOrange82]

I think its gonna be a dog fight. Maybe someone gets 87 but its going to be real close.

The AL East champ has finished with fewer than 87 wins just three times since 1969, including the strike-affected 1981 season (incidentally, the '81 season is also the only one in which the division champ finished with fewer than 86 wins).

This season might be a dogfight, but a champion with a mid-80's win total is extremely, extremely unlikely.

[MarylandAaron]

Who is this clown? I've seen more intelligence in a monkey:cool:

Haha, pretty much. For the most part he just put the teams with the flashiest offseasons near the top. When will these sportswriters ever learn? Oh well, I'm glad they're not hyping the O's anyway. The O's seem to be a great underdog team, much like the Ravens.