BP: Buck worth 30+ runs last year

[Just Regular]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25691

Today BP published the conclusion of a piece that started last week. It's subscriber content and densely technical. Someone else might have a better lay explanation, but the gist of it is that a small but significant bit of maintaining plate discipline as the dog days of summer wear along can be tied back to the manager. The writer calls this "the Grind".

On each pitch, it's a fraction of a percentage chance between 49% and 51% but over 20000 pitches per year, and with each ball vs. strike call representing a swing of perhaps a tenth of a run, the bits add up. Think Richard Pryor's fractions of pennies in Superman 3.

Last week's piece was on hitting, today's on pitching and the final tally had Buck far and away #1 with 33.4 Grind runs last year, more than 8 better than 2nd place, and more than 50 ahead of John Farrell, who had negative results last year while the Red Sox faded.

It isn't part of PECOTA or their projections, but nice to see an Oriole rating of "brilliant" somewhere there.