If, IF, if Ubaldo continues to dominate?

[tntoriole]

I can understand your concern if you were talking about replacing one of the stars of the team. But we're talking about just a guy who's just had some success here. If we were stubborn and refused to ever replace anyone who's been on the team for a few years with a better player, we'd have a pretty stagnant team.

Gonzales has pitched better than Norris.

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[AlbionHero]

Gonzales has pitched better than Norris.

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I'd argue that. His ERA might have been better, but a large part of that can be contributed to the defense behind him. But actual pitching, Norris has done better the last few years because of his lower xFIP and other advanced stats.

Norris 2013: 4.22 xFIP

Norris 2014: 3.98 xFIP

Gonzalez 2013: 4.31 xFIP

Gonzalez 2014: 4.46 xFIP

Gonzalez has been very lucky, but things always balance out in the end. I'd rather not wait until it does if we have another option.

[MurphDogg]

I can understand your concern if you were talking about replacing one of the stars of the team. But we're talking about just a guy who's just had some success here. If we were stubborn and refused to ever replace anyone who's been on the team for a few years with a better player, we'd have a pretty stagnant team.

You can't just send a starting pitcher coming off a season with a 119 ERA+ (and a career ERA+ of 117) to the minors. It would be unprecedented. It doesn't matter how bad the underlying peripherals and FIP are. He has gotten results. He has the best career ERA of any starter on the team. You can't just demote him before he fails at the Major League level. He is also having a good spring, hasn't walked a batter.

I too think that the other shoe will drop, but you have to let it. The other players won't understand it if a guy like Gonzalez gets sent down.

[tntoriole]

I'd argue that. His ERA might have been better, but a large part of that can be contributed to the defense behind him. But actual pitching, Norris has done better the last few years because of his lower xFIP and other advanced stats.

Norris 2013: 4.22 xFIP

Norris 2014: 3.98 xFIP

Gonzalez 2013: 4.31 xFIP

Gonzalez 2014: 4.46 xFIP

Gonzalez has been very lucky, but things always balance out in the end. I'd rather not wait until it does if we have another option.

Yes, the daggone luck of that Miguel against those completely incompetent teams in the AL. Too bad we didn't have similar lucky pitchers from 1998-2012. Dumping a proven major league winning starting pitcher into the minors or a even a limited bullpen role is not a small decision for a team that wants to win it THIS year. I stand by my opinion, we just disagree.

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[AlbionHero]

You can't just send a starting pitcher coming off a season with a 119 ERA+ (and a career ERA+ of 117) to the minors. It would be unprecedented. It doesn't matter how bad the underlying peripherals and FIP are. He has gotten results. He has the best career ERA of any starter on the team. You can't just demote him before he fails at the Major League level. He is also having a good spring, hasn't walked a batter.

I too think that the other shoe will drop, but you have to let it. The other players won't understand it if a guy like Gonzalez gets sent down.

I never said he should be sent down. I think he could be a valuable member of the bullpen... but he's not one of the 4 best SPs we have (I think he's better than Ubaldo but it seems like he'll be in the rotation regardless). Norris makes too much to be sent to the pen. Gausman has the most pure talent. Chen and Tillman are locked in. He's the odd man out unless theres a late Norris trade.... it sucks for Gonzalez but thats just how it is.

[El Gordo]

To me, I think it's clearly time to acknowledge that Ubaldo will not go to the bullpen or come down with a mysterious injury. He's going to get his shot in the rotation to start the season - period.

Here are the Orioles' options, barring injury:

1. Move one of Gonzalez or Norris to the 'pen.

2. Option Gausman or Gonzalez.

3. Trade Gonzalez, Norris, or Ubaldo.

4. Do that crazy Dan/Buck thing where you tinker with off days and somehow have all 6 guys pitch until you absolutely, positively are forced to make some kind of tough decision.

Which way do they go? Which way do you go? And remember, Ubaldo to the bullpen is not your answer because that won't happen.

I think some combination of 4. Possibly Norris to the DL to start the season and then take things from there.

I don't see them sending either Gausman or Gonzo down.

[OFFNY]

o

UBALDO JIMENEZ (Spring Training)

1st Start: Horrible.

2nd Start: Mediocre.

3rd Start: Slightly better than mediocre.

4th start: ???

Is he gradually working his way up the ladder ??? Stay tuned.

UBALDO JIMENEZ (Spring Training)

1st Start: Horrible.

2nd Start: Mediocre.

3rd Start: Slightly better than mediocre.

4th start: Pretty good, and into the 5th inning (another mild improvement.)

5th start: ???

Slowly but surely, Jimenez appears to be gradually improving with each Spring Training outing.

UBALDO JIMENEZ (Spring Training)

1st Start: Horrible.

2nd Start: Mediocre.

3rd Start: Slightly better than mediocre.

4th start: Pretty good, and into the 5th inning (another mild improvement.)

5th start: Very good. 5 complete shutout innings, 0 walks.

6th start: ???

Not that I pay much attention to Spring Training stats/outings in the first place, but Jimenez' progression of improvement this March has been about as gradual and as consistent as I have ever seen/I can ever remember.

[caesarod]

Real improvement or otherwise, it's hard not to root for Ubaldo.

I never liked him, in Colorado or Cleveland, and I'm not sure why. I even commented last spring that I didn't like anything about him including his face, which was sort of uncalled for but true. And now I find myself rooting for him, and I'm not sure why. It's not because he's employed by my favorite team.

Actually, I do know why, and it's not in spite of but BECAUSE of his struggles in 2014. He had every opportunity to lash out at fans, management...everybody, and he did not. He worked and did what was asked of him every step of the way as if he were a fringe player making MLB minimum rather than a guy who's financially set regardless of performance. I REALLY respect that, and will hope for good things for him now and in the future, whether in Baltimore or not.

Having said that, those good things can start right now and continue through October and I'd like that a lot.

[24fps]

I never liked him, in Colorado or Cleveland, and I'm not sure why. I even commented last spring that I didn't like anything about him including his face, which was sort of uncalled for but true. And now I find myself rooting for him, and I'm not sure why. It's not because he's employed by my favorite team.

Actually, I do know why, and it's not in spite of but BECAUSE of his struggles in 2014. He had every opportunity to lash out at fans, management...everybody, and he did not. He worked and did what was asked of him every step of the way as if he were a fringe player making MLB minimum rather than a guy who's financially set regardless of performance. I REALLY respect that, and will hope for good things for him now and in the future, whether in Baltimore or not.

Having said that, those good things can start right now and continue through October and I'd like that a lot.

Very nice post.

[kaerts111]

I love that someone changed the thread title.

Yeah, agreed, that was a kind gesture. I'm sure he'll get a lot more kind gestures from everyone if he continues to pitch to his potential.

[Nevermore]

Key stat - no walks. Last year was all about mechanics being shot - not any lack of ability. If the mechanics are fixed, he's an asset - and possibly becomes tradable - if they want to go that way.

NO!!! Don't trade him! Keep him. Someone with his work ethic and "want-to" is someone we need to keep for our team.

[Nevermore]

Except that you move a proven major league pitcher who was a key contributor to two division runs (Gonzo) to the MINORS???? or the pen???

Either you trade Norris or Gausman starts at Norfolk and you wait for someone to falter or get hurt. Gonzo has earned his spot in the 2015 rotation, in my view.

Agree. Moving Gonzo to the pen or minors would be similar (at this point) to moving Ubaldo to the pen or minors. I'd sooner move Norris to the pen rather than Gonzo. Gonzo has more than earned his spot in the rotation.

[Nevermore]

I am pretty confident that Tillman, Gausman and Chen are in the rotation. The last two spots are what is being fought over.

We have to remember something about Ubaldo. He is from the Dominican. Pitches well in warm weather. Not so much in the cold. Its 80's in Florida. It will be in the 40's in Baltimore and Boston. Here is his career ERA:

April - 5.23

May - 3.78

June - 3.24

July - 4.20

August - 4.50

Sept 3.46

Last year when he struggled his April ERA was 6.59

2013 when he had a good year his April ERA was 7.13

I can see Ubaldo getting a start in the 72 degree climate controlled Trop, but passed that he is probably in trouble when he can't feel the ball in the cold.

I know Wallace has magic dust he sprinkles over his pitchers but he will need a triple dose for Ubaldo in April. And prayer. Prayer is always good.

Ubaldo can be really good for May-Sept but put the guy in the pen for a month. Its will be good for him and the team.

As for fitting the rest of the guys on the team. I trust Dan and Buck's judicious use of the Disabled List.

If Ubaldo is the 5th starter, he'll spend some time in the pen. The 5th starter won't be needed until it gets warmer.

Or if needed, Wallace can use some more of that magic pixie dust.

[Nevermore]

I can understand your concern if you were talking about replacing one of the stars of the team. But we're talking about just a guy who's just had some success here. If we were stubborn and refused to ever replace anyone who's been on the team for a few years with a better player, we'd have a pretty stagnant team.

Gonzo has been better than Norris. So put Norris in the pen for now.

[Three Run Homer]

Trading Norris makes no sense. He is losing value every time he takes the mound. Why would someone give up anything of value for a pitcher with a 9 ERA in the spring? Any other team is going to think that he is either hurt or has lost command of his stuff.

If the team believes it has a surplus of capable starters, why not trade Chen? He is a good pitcher and will bring back value. He's almost surely gone after this season so we are not damaging our long term competitiveness by trading him.