Chris Davis wants to see Orioles commit to the future before he does

[weams]

They are complaining about it since they are persons of entitlement who don't fully grasp economic realities.

The Orioles have the highest payroll in their 61 year history!

[DrungoHazewood]

Let's forget about hurt feelings and who is right or wrong in the negotiations for a minute. Let's instead focus on what happens if we lose Davis, Wieters, Pearce, De Aza, Chen, Norris, O'Day, Hunter and some others. Does that leave us in position to field a pennant contender in 2016?

There's a reasonable chance that in 2016 Davis will be a .200 hitter with 22 homers and 228 strikeouts, Pearce goes back to being a AAAA journeyman, De Aza hits like he did for the first 80% of 2014, Chen and Norris continue to be average starters, and Hunter is just a pretty good bullpen arm. We have no idea what Wieters will be like coming off a season-ending injury and surgery. There's no one on your list who's guaranteed to be worth a big, long-term deal. Those players plus Markakis may have not had any positive impact on their contention in 2016 (or 2015) had they all been resigned. This is almost like the Nelson Cruz argument - people act like losing him chops 4-5 wins off the total. What they forget is that resigning him probably chopped 2-3 wins off the total, and more down the road.

[Scrat1]

There's a reasonable chance that in 2016 Davis will be a .200 hitter with 22 homers and 228 strikeouts, Pearce goes back to being a AAAA journeyman, De Aza hits like he did for the first 80% of 2014, Chen and Norris continue to be average starters, and Hunter is just a pretty good bullpen arm. We have no idea what Wieters will be like coming off a season-ending injury and surgery. There's no one on your list who's guaranteed to be worth a big, long-term deal. Those players plus Markakis may have not had any positive impact on their contention in 2016 (or 2015) had they all been resigned. This is almost like the Nelson Cruz argument - people act like losing him chops 4-5 wins off the total. What they forget is that resigning him probably chopped 2-3 wins off the total, and more down the road.

As I've said elsewhere, I'm fine with hitting the top 4-5 players with QOs and letting everyone walk. That would give us a nice handful of picks and about 55 million bucks.

The remaining talent:

Tillman

Gausman

Gonzalez

Jiminez

Bundy

Hardy

Jones

Machado

Schoop

Joseph

Lough

Snider

Alvarez

Somewhat thin, but a solid foundation. We're definitely going to need another catcher. We're going to have to almost completely rebuild the bullpen. And we're going to need at least one significant outfielder/DH/1B player. This may be the year it makes sense to make a run at a player like Justin Upton or Jason Heyward, then use the remaining resources to fill in the gaps with the usual buy low lotto tickets/Rule V guys. Heyward in particular strikes me as a Buck guy.

[33rdst]

Y

There's a reasonable chance that in 2016 Davis will be a .200 hitter with 22 homers and 228 strikeouts, Pearce goes back to being a AAAA journeyman, De Aza hits like he did for the first 80% of 2014, Chen and Norris continue to be average starters, and Hunter is just a pretty good bullpen arm. We have no idea what Wieters will be like coming off a season-ending injury and surgery. There's no one on your list who's guaranteed to be worth a big, long-term deal. Those players plus Markakis may have not had any positive impact on their contention in 2016 (or 2015) had they all been resigned. This is almost like the Nelson Cruz argument - people act like losing him chops 4-5 wins off the total. What they forget is that resigning him probably chopped 2-3 wins off the total, and more down the road.

Wow! Davis, Pearce, DeAza, Chen, Norris, Markakis, Wieters? Pretty negative spin. Makes you wonder how we won 96 games last year with this pile of crap. At least we've rid ourselves of Cruz and Markakis. Can't wait till next year so we can get rid of the rest of these bums.

[Dipper9]

We're clearly not doing enough. These guys aren't just making things up and complaining for the sake of it. They're obviously not fans of the offseason we had. As a player, I'd probably have expected more too. Maybe go a hair above your budget for a year and bring Cruz back. Yeah the last 2 years will probably not yield good returns, but the current team is better and our players wouldn't be as pissed at ownership/the front office.

We have the 2nd best overall record in the AL over the past 3 years. That's all I care about, not "pretending to care about winning" because we sign 100 million dollar players.

But that's just me.

[Can_of_corn]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Orioles have agreed to terms with 16 players on one-year contracts.</p>— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) <a href="

">March 10, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

There you go Davis.

[Dipper9]

Sometimes you have to do things you don't want to do to please others. Baseball is no different.

Like signing Ubaldo last year? Now we're stuck having to play a guy who is clearly not one of the best 5 starters.

That's what happens when you sign 36 year old Cruz to a four year deal.

Or a league average right fielder to a 4 year deal.

You end up with albatrosses.

You're living in the past Man! These big free agent contracts don't work anymore.

[DrungoHazewood]

Y

Wow! Davis, Pearce, DeAza, Chen, Norris, Markakis, Wieters? Pretty negative spin. Makes you wonder how we won 96 games last year with this pile of crap. At least we've rid ourselves of Cruz and Markakis. Can't wait till next year so we can get rid of the rest of these bums.

Let's see, Wieters provided about 1/6th of a full season's of value, and is now coming off surgery/rehab. Davis OPS'd .704 and was gone for September and October. De Aza was a nice contributor... for a month, prior to that he was a poor player for the White Sox. Markakis had his most productive/healthy season in four years and he's 31. Chen and Norris were nice 3rd/4th starters. Pearce had something like 90% of his career value in his age 31 season. Do you take issue with any of that? Do you really think that the way to ensure another 96 wins in 2015 would be to stand pat, and maybe sign a bunch of those guys to longer contracts?

If the 2015 Orioles win it will be in large part due to the contributions of players not on that list. Jones, Machado, Tillman, Gausman, Britton, most notably.

[tntoriole]

Your comment is fair enough, but I think there is more to the Markakis story than just taking the most money. There's clearly something about the way the Orioles handled the negotiations that bothered him, such as pulling back on a prior offer (or if you'd prefer, prior "parameters of discussion"). At the end of the day, you are still correct that Nick went where he could get the most money.

Or it could just be that Nick's ego was offended by getting an offer of only three years from DD rather than the four that both he and his agent felt he "deserved."

[tntoriole]

They are complaining about it since they are persons of entitlement who don't fully grasp economic realities.

Which is why very few players make great GMs.

[tntoriole]

As I've said elsewhere, I'm fine with hitting the top 4-5 players with QOs and letting everyone walk. That would give us a nice handful of picks and about 55 million bucks.

The remaining talent:

Tillman

Gausman

Gonzalez

Jiminez

Bundy

Hardy

Jones

Machado

Schoop

Joseph

Lough

Snider

Alvarez

Somewhat thin, but a solid foundation. We're definitely going to need another catcher. We're going to have to almost completely rebuild the bullpen. And we're going to need at least one significant outfielder/DH/1B player. This may be the year it makes sense to make a run at a player like Justin Upton or Jason Heyward, then use the remaining resources to fill in the gaps with the usual buy low lotto tickets/Rule V guys. Heyward in particular strikes me as a Buck guy.

Of course, a lot of this also depends on us having a contending season like we all hope for. But if, God forbid, things go south before the deadline, then I would also be OK with a fire sale approach to the pending free agents if it gets us more of a return than a pick.

[MurphDogg]

My worry is with Jones, Davis, Wieters, Tillman, Machado, Britton, and Gausman. I'm not seeing anything that indicates we'll even attempt to keep them. I don't want us to suck again. If we lose all of those players and don't replace them with anyone similar, we are going to be bad again. You can't just say "we're not going to sign any mid/high level free agent, not going to re-sign any of our core players, make any trades for impact ML players, not sign any of the best Japanese talent, and we can't look at the top Cuban guys" and expect to be good.

Jones, Machado and Britton have four years left, Gausman has 5, Tillman has three. To worry about losing those players and not replacing them is to worry that the Orioles won't field a team 6 years from now. Nobody is under contract forever, and yet every year the Orioles have a 25-man roster and every year for the last 5 years payroll has increased. If we don't keep Britton it will be because he gets two expensive through arbitration due to the save rule.

[Scrat1]

Of course, a lot of this also depends on us having a contending season like we all hope for. But if, God forbid, things go south before the deadline, then I would also be OK with a fire sale approach to the pending free agents if it gets us more of a return than a pick.

Oh yeah, absolutely.

[33rdst]

Let's see, Wieters provided about 1/6th of a full season's of value, and is now coming off surgery/rehab. Davis OPS'd .704 and was gone for September and October. De Aza was a nice contributor... for a month, prior to that he was a poor player for the White Sox. Markakis had his most productive/healthy season in four years and he's 31. Chen and Norris were nice 3rd/4th starters. Pearce had something like 90% of his career value in his age 31 season. Do you take issue with any of that? Do you really think that the way to ensure another 96 wins in 2015 would be to stand pat, and maybe sign a bunch of those guys to longer contracts?

If the 2015 Orioles win it will be in large part due to the contributions of players not on that list. Jones, Machado, Tillman, Gausman, Britton, most notably.

My opinions about what theO's should do for next year have been documented. I won't go into the specifics again here. Suffice it to say I don't think they should resign all of their free agents but I don't think they should let them all walk aa apparently you do. What the o's have created here over the last several years is something special. Not necessarily unique because it's happened in baseball many times before. They have pulled together a group of players who individually may not have the "numbers" that make them great or in some cases even average. But together they have done things none of the statistical models have come close to predicting. There whole is greater then the some of their parts. The players recognize how special this is. That is why they are so vocal about trying to preserve it. That's the task ahead for Duquette and Showalter. It's more than the numbers.

[DrungoHazewood]

My opinions about what theO's should do for next year have been documented. I won't go into the specifics again here. Suffice it to say I don't think they should resign all of their free agents but I don't think they should let them all walk aa apparently you do. What the o's have created here over the last several years is something special. Not necessarily unique because it's happened in baseball many times before. They have pulled together a group of players who individually may not have the "numbers" that make them great or in some cases even average. But together they have done things none of the statically models have come close to predicting. There whole is greater then the some of their parts. The players recognize how special this is. That is why they are so vocal about trying to preserve it. That's the task ahead for Duquette and Showalter. It's more than the numbers.

You trust in the model Duquette and Showalter used to build this "greater than the sum of it's parts" team, but you don't trust their decision to let Nick go, or to make the right call on long-term deals for others?