Chris Davis wants to see Orioles commit to the future before he does

[Tony-OH]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Orioles rarely spend money on relief pitchers. Zach Britton knows it works, but he also hopes it changes soon. <a href="http://t.co/bHScDkjIpu">http://t.co/bHScDkjIpu</a></p>— David Wilson (@DBWilson2) <a href="

">March 11, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Add another.

What does Britton's comments have to do with the others? He just said eventually you have to pay some guys. He's right, and the Orioles will when it's the right player for the right price just like they did for Jones and Hardy.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Chen's translator is holding out for a cut of the action.

Well, it looks like Chen has chimed in.

我想要更多的钱。 朱鹂与黄鹂便宜。 我哭。

[33rdst]

I don't think Nick's first extension was particularly generous at the time. This is what they had to go on:

2006: .799 OPS, 106 OPS+, 2.5 rWAR

2007: .848 OPS, 121 OPS+, 4.2 rWAR

2008: .898 OPS, 136 OPS+, 7.4 rWAR

And he was 24 years old. That earned him 6/$66 mm, but considering his performance through that date and his trajectory, Orioles fans were flipping cartwheels.

By comparision, let's look at Adam's performance before he signed:

2008: .711 OPS, 87 OPS+, 2.0 rWAR

2009: .792 OPS, 105 OPS+, 2.6 rWAR

2010: .767 OPS, 108 OPS+, 2.5 rWAR

2011: .785 OPS, 111 OPS+, 3.0 rWAR

He signed early in the 2012 season, after an excellent start, but he'd had excellent starts in other years and hadn't finished as strong. That earned him 6/$85.5 mm.

It is slightly apples and oranges, since Nick's deal bought out three arbitration years and three free agent years, whereas Adam's bought out one arbitration year and five free agent years. But I would not say Nick's deal was more generous than Adam's at the time of those signings, considering the track records of the two players when they signed their deals. It's only with the benefit of hindsight that Nick's deal looks generous while Adam's looks like a home team discount.

Wouldn't he have been entering his free agent year in 2013? He would have been coming off of his best year by far. In 2012. All Star, gold glove, 839 ops. I think it was clear he had walked away from a few dollars by signing the extension early on. He got what he wanted though, he stayed in Baltimore.

Nick is tough because, as you said, we were buying out arbitration years. I agree, early on it looked like a steal for the O's but ultimately they didn't get what they thought they would out of him. It was a good risk though, given his early performance. Hindsight is 20/20.

Anyway, even though a few of my examples may not have entirely supported the point, There are examples that it often occurs that it's not all about the money or the numbers. Teams and players have other needs for which they will pay.

[tntoriole]

To some extent, players always seem to believe that if they sign a long term deal early and then it turns out that they could have hypothetically gotten more dollars on the free agent market, that they gave the team a "discount". It is not a "discount", no more so than someone investing in a mutual fund and at the end of six years having a return of say 10 percent versus someone who says, no, I am going to put it all on Apple and earning much more. But of course I could have put it all on a housing stock too and lost everything. What the players often seem not to appreciate however is the risk involved in their own performance and in the future market decisions. Putting it all on the free agent option means that they both have to make it there healthy and that they have to be overproducing in order to get the big payoff. Security IS worth a lot of money even if many players seem to feel that they are giving a "discount."

[Frobby]

Wouldn't he have been entering his free agent year in 2013? He would have been coming off of his best year by far. In 2012. All Star, gold glove, 839 ops. I think it was clear he had walked away from a few dollars by signing the extension early on. He got what he wanted though, he stayed in Baltimore.

Nick is tough because, as you said, we were buying out arbitration years. I agree, early on it looked like a steal for the O's but ultimately they didn't get what they thought they would out of him. It was a good risk though, given his early performance. Hindsight is 20/20.

Anyway, even though a few of my examples may not have entirely supported the point, There are examples that it often occurs that it's not all about the money or the numbers. Teams and players have other needs for which they will pay.

No, Adam signed his deal in late May 2012. He was off to a hot start that year, but the season was less than two months old and he'd had hot starts before and then cooled off (e.g., 1.005 OPS at the end of May 2009, but finished at .792). He was not a potential free agent until the 2014 season. I think there's no doubt that in hindsight, if he'd waited for free agency he could have made more than he did, but he was 1.7 seasons away from free agency when he signed, and based on his track record to that point, I don't think his deal was any more of a home team discount than Nick's, and probably less of one. In any event, he's made that contract look like a great one in the last 2.7 seasons. Per fangraphs, he was worth $21 mm in 2013 at FA prices (so maybe $17 mm as a 3rd year arb-eligible), and $30 mm last year. We've paid him $8.5 mm at $13 mm, so he's been worth roughly double what he's been paid.

[hoosiers]

I am very late to this thread as work has been very busy, but had these thoughts:

- For a guy who performed well below expectations and was suspended, Chris Davis should keep quiet and produce. IMO, whatever claims he has regarding the Os and their future major league team, the need to show performance is much more on his shoulders than that of our front office. I know this thread has generated a lot of discussion here and perhaps it has on Bmore radio. A player with Davis' production should be making every attempt to avoid controversy.

- As far as our future team, our FO has signed all-star position players Jones and Hardy to multi-year deals, has a quality young 3B, a young 2B with one year major league experience and Travis Snider in RF. That is five everyday position players locked up through 2016 with additional guys who could be locked up in they produce in 2015 - Pearce, Cabrera. I think the disintegration of the team due to pending 2015 free agents in tremendously overblown.

- Someone mentioned earlier that Buck is not here for a potential re-build. I'd like to know whether he is committed here long term or not.

[mdbdotcom]

- Someone mentioned earlier that Buck is not here for a potential re-build. I'd like to know whether he is committed here long term or not.

He'll be 62 when his contract is up in 2018. He's already joked that he won't be hear in 2024. How long does he have to stay to qualify as long term?

[JayThomas]

I'm not quite clear about what you were reponding to in my post. My point simply was that a team's performance on the field is a consequence of more than the summation of the individual statistics of the players.

Oh sorry 33. I guess I jumped the gun on that one line.

[33rdst]

No, Adam signed his deal in late May 2012. He was off to a hot start that year, but the season was less than two months old and he'd had hot starts before and then cooled off (e.g., 1.005 OPS at the end of May 2009, but finished at .792). He was not a potential free agent until the 2014 season. I think there's no doubt that in hindsight, if he'd waited for free agency he could have made more than he did, but he was 1.7 seasons away from free agency when he signed, and based on his track record to that point, I don't think his deal was any more of a home team discount than Nick's, and probably less of one. In any event, he's made that contract look like a great one in the last 2.7 seasons. Per fangraphs, he was worth $21 mm in 2013 at FA prices (so maybe $17 mm as a 3rd year arb-eligible), and $30 mm last year. We've paid him $8.5 mm at $13 mm, so he's been worth roughly double what he's been paid.

Of course, it makes sense he would have had more then a half year remaining until free agency. I don't know what I was thinking. If he only had seven months left he likely would have waited. Anyway good for us that he decided to sign.

[OFFNY]

o

Weams pointed out that the Yankees' 1st baseman has similarly bad timing with his statements to the press as does the Orioles' 1st baseman.

I agree with Weams.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/146746-2015-New-York-Yankees?p=3743748#post3743748

[SteveO]

I had no issue with the Orioles NOT resigning Nick or Nelson which would have required a significant monetary investment over a significant amount of time. The reason is that I am hopeful that DD, Buck and company wanted to allow resources to be free in order to reshape the roster after this season.

Once the season concludes the Orioles will have a lot of holes to fill but they will also have significant financial flexibility. There is no reason to think the Orioles will not have enough money to get very good players to compliment the guys who will still be here. Those names may not be MW and CD but I have to believe they will add significantly talented guys, if they want to win they have little choice, the farm system is not going to have the type of guys ready who can get it done IMO.

I think this next offseason will say much more about the Orioles commitment to winning than any other in recent years. I also think that fans will be pleasantly surprised and happy with how the franchise responds to that challenge.

[Il BuonO]

Maybe he should commit fully to a GB on defense. What a pathetic attempt today on a ball that hit off his glove and ruled a "hit". The runner later scored.

[Can_of_corn]

Maybe he should commit fully to a GB on defense. What a pathetic attempt today on a ball that hit off his glove and ruled a "hit". The runner later scored.

At least he stopped dropping perfect throws.

[theobird]

I need Chris Davis to commit to hitting the ball a whole lot better than he did last year before committing to a long term contract with him. I like Chris Davis, and I really like what he can bring to the team....Like he did in 2013. But really? After the season that he just had, and getting suspended down the stretch I would like to see his bat do the talking. Maybe its just me.

[El Gordo]

Chris Davis was on pace for 34 HR and 92 RBI AND 77 BB. Pretty good huh? Alas he had a .196 BA. Of course we all know BA is a meaningless stat. He also had a .242 BABIP instead of his career average .320. Even though his LD% was higher than his career average.