Camden Depot Breaks Down Jake Arrieta

[Frobby]

Pretty good piece here analyzing what Jake has changed after leaving Baltimore. I wasn't sure if I should post this in the Orioles forum, but as Jake isn't here anymore, I decided it belonged in the MLB forum. Mods, feel free to move it if you want.

[W]hile Arrieta's strikeouts are up and walks are down [since leaving the Orioles], he hasn't been pounding the zone more. He actually threw fewer pitches in the strike zone in 2014 (47%) than his career average (48.7%). But he has been getting more swings and misses, especially on low pitches. Arrieta hasn't needed to throw as many pitches in the zone because opposing batters are swinging more often at pitches outside the zone and making less contact. They also swung a bit more on pitches in the zone and still made less contact.

A big part of Arrieta's success has been a pitch addition. Here's his pitch usage breakdown while with the Orioles and Cubs:

With Orioles: 30% four-seam; 31% sinker; 16% slider; 15% curve; 8% change

With Cubs: 21% four-seam; 31% sinker; 26% slider; 17% curve; 5% change

Arrieta has traded four-seamers for more sliders -- or, more accurately, more cutters -- and it's been a devastating weapon for him. He's been much better at controlling his cutter and using it more in fastball counts.

It's known that Dan Duquette and Rick Peterson (the O's director of pitching development) are not huge fans of the cutter. They prefer that their young pitchers work on other secondary pitches, and they also believe that overuse of the pitch can cause a decrease in velocity. Baseball America covered the cutter and a possible decline in velocity in 2010, and Dan Haren talked about it last year. An interesting part of Haren's interview: ". . . the cutter 'absolutely' leads to velocity loss. (He just didn?t care because he was already losing velocity.)" (Read more on the O's and the cutter here and here. The O's are more extreme when it comes to worrying about the effects of the pitch, but there isn't a great data set to entirely prove that some of their concerns aren't justified.)

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2015/03/the-transformation-of-jake-arrieta.html

[Ruzious]

Didn't Mariano Rivera get by... long enough to have a seat waiting for in the HOF... with the cutter?

[Chavez Ravine]

I want to see another year of the new Jake before I will be convinced that he has mastered a devestating cutter. That said, far stranger things have happened in baseball.

[Just Regular]

I gather Duquette's no-cutter philosophy is to groom starters like marathon runners, and Tillman is seen as a developmental win.

I have read increased slider rates increase both effectiveness and injury risk in the short term, so it's easy to picture going there as a temptation for many pitchers.

It's going to be very interesting to watch Bundy and the cutter over the next few years. If the mega talent to succeed without it doesn't come all the way back, will he get to throw it before free agency comes?

[weams]

The Dodgers collected five runs on seven hits over four innings.

"I just got into a couple situations there, a couple at-bats where I got behind in the count and served something up that was a little too hittable," Arrieta said. "They were able to get the ball in the air and strung some hits together."

The right-hander was able to settle down in the third and fourth innings, and minimized the damage in the latter as he struck out three in a row to strand a runner at third.

He is so close to being so good. And everyone knows it.

[waroriole]

Since we're not going to give our SP a FA deal, why do we care if they eventually lose velocity?

[Il BuonO]

Since we're not going to give our SP a FA deal, why do we care if they eventually lose velocity?

Dumb. It's a devastating pitch and Jake has become better with it. I was one of those who said he needed to trim a pitch or two from his arsenal. After watching him last year and seeing that cutter, especially to LHB, I don't see how anyone watching doesn't see it makes him incredibly difficult to hit.

[murph]

Since we're not going to give our SP a FA deal, why do we care if they eventually lose velocity?

Great point....why not use everything they have, while we have them....like other's have said about grinding Wieter's knees to dust while he is with us since we know he will be gone once free agency hits (granted, less of a good example at the moment). Not looking to hurt a player's career, but maximize their value while they are Oriole...then they can get an overpriced FA contract based off what they did, not what they have left in the tank. Win, win for everyone.