2013 vs 2014 Orioles WAR

[eddie83]

When I think of why the Orioles were a better team in 2014 vs 2013 the first I think of is the pitching. There are a lot of discussions about WAR when it comes to a players value. According to WAR using Baseball-Reference the teams pitching was basically the same, it was the postion players that improved.

2013 Orioles 85-77 745 runs scored, 709 allowed.

2014 Orioles 96-66 705 runs scored, 593 runs allowed.

In 2013 the average AL team scored 4.33 runs per game

The Orioles scored 4.6 runs per game which ranked 4th

In 2013 the average AL team allowed 4.29 runs per game

The Orioles allowed 4.38 runs per game which ranked 9th

In 2014 the average AL team scored 4.18 runs per game

The Orioles scored 4.35 runs per game which ranked 6th

In 2014 the average AL team allowed 4.14 runs per game

The Orioles allowed 3.66 runs per game which ranked 3rd

The team ERA in 2013 was 4.20-ranked 10th, in 2014 it was 3.43-ranked 3rd

Explain then to me this.

2013 team pitching WAR of 14.1

2014 team pitching WAR of 14.4 Plus 0.3

2013 team postion player WAR of 22.6

2014 team positon player WAR of 32.3 Plus 9.7

David Lough who played 500 innings of defense has a WAR of 1.6

Bud Norris pitches 165 innings with an ERA of 3.65 has a WAR of 1.9

Wei-Yen Chen pitches 185 innings with an ERA of 3.54 has a WAR of 1.8

I would like to meet the person who thinks that David Lough contributed just little bit below Norris and Chen. In 2013 Wieters has a negative WAR on defense even though he was well above average in CS and did very well in PB and WP allowed.

So last year the Orioles allow 116 fewer runs when the league average was 0.15 runs lower and their team pitching WAR is basically the same? I know defense is important and plays a role but I just don't get how this all adds up.

[Aristotelian]

Fangraphs has Lough's WAR even higher, 1.9.

Part of the explanation for Norris and Chen having lower WAR is that they benefitted tremendously from the Orioles defense, including, at times, Lough. Arguably, they were close-to-replacement pitchers with a really good defense behind them. Because neither is a strikeout pitcher, they are going to have high FIP and benefit disproportionately from good defense. I am not sure how FIP is calculated but Bud's was actually higher last year than 2013 even though he had a career year by ERA.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm not going to go through it all, but will offer up a few things.

I'm assuming you're going by rWAR.

1. The Orioles were very highly rated on defense last year. I'm guessing significantly higher than 2013. rWAR does not give credit to the pitcher if the are helped by defense (whether that's individual defenders or systematic with the shifts). A plus defensive contribution would be adjusted to PAR/average.

2. Without looking I'm going to guess that the Orioles performed marginally better in high leverage situations (pitching and hitting) than they did in 2013. This will not be accounted for in WAR.

3. With respect to Wieters (again assuming you're using rWAR) a few things come into effect the way DRS accounts for rWAR for catchers.

a. rWAR uses a catcher era formula. So, if Wieter's is below average as compared to other catchers then he will be debited (agree or disagree).

b. rWAR assigns pitchers credit for holding runners that is taken away from the catcher, so even if Wieter's had a high raw CS% it would be debited to some degree based on the credit he got for our pitchers effectiveness at holding runners.

c. I don't think Wieters performs particularly well on bunt plays. Not saying he's bad, but some others may excel at this. Also, snap throws is something Wieter's isn't particularly effective at doing.

d. rWAR does not count WP's and PB's in raw terms. They are based on a per play basis similar to how fielding metrics use plus-minus accounting systems. For example, if a staff has a high degree of pitchers who throw sinker balls and/or splitters and put more balls in the dirt as compared to other teams, than that catcher(s) will have more opportunities to save WP's/PB's and be potentially more valuable (if they perform well on a pro-rata basis) than a guy who had less opportunities. My guess would be that Wieter's dealt with more high FB's and more FB pitchers and less difficult pitches on aggregate than some of the other guys around the league who rated higher than him, even if they had more PB/WP's (by the counting stats).

[eddie83]

Fangraphs has Lough's WAR even higher, 1.9.

Part of the explanation for Norris and Chen having lower WAR is that they benefitted tremendously from the Orioles defense, including, at times, Lough. Arguably, they were close-to-replacement pitchers with a really good defense behind them. Because neither is a strikeout pitcher, they are going to have high FIP and benefit disproportionately from good defense. I am not sure how FIP is calculated but Bud's was actually higher last year than 2013 even though he had a career year by ERA.

Collectively as a staff they allowed 116 fewer runs, that is all due to the defense? Not snapping at you just making my point. Here I thought last year Norris and Chen pitched well and our bullpen stepped up minus Jim Johnson.

If Chen, Norris and Lough were all Free Agents there is no way Lough matches what those guys would get.

[eddie83]

I'm not going to go through it all, but will offer up a few things.

I'm assuming you're going by rWAR.

1. The Orioles were very highly rated on defense last year. I'm guessing significantly higher than 2013. rWAR does not give credit to the pitcher of the are helped by defense (whether that's individual defenders or systematic with the shifts). A plus defensive contribution would be adjusted to PAR/average.

2. Without looking I'm going to guess that the Orioles performed marginally better in high leverage situations (pitching and hitting) than they did in 2013

3. With respect to Wieters (again assuming you're using rWAR) a few things come into effect they way DRS accounts for rWAR for catchers.

a. rWAR uses a catcher era formula. So, if Wieter's is below average as compared to other catchers then he will be debited (agree or disagree).

b. rWAR assigns pitchers credit for holding runners that is taken away from the catcher, so even if Wieter's had a high raw CS% it would be debited to some degree based on the credit he got for our pitchers effectiveness at holding runners.

c. rWAR does not count WP's and PB's in raw terms. The are based on a per play basis similar to how fielding metrics use plus-minus accounting systems. For example, if a staff has a high degree of pitchers who throw sinker balls and/or splitters and put more balls in the dirt as compared to other teams, than that catcher(s) will have more opportunities to save WP's/PB's and be potentially more valuable than a guy who had less opportunities. My guess would be that Wieter's dealt with more high FB's and more FB pitchers and less difficult pitches on aggregate than some of the other guys around the league who rated higher than him, even if they had more PB/WP's (by the counting stats).

Watching the 2013 and 2014 teams with your eyes you think the defense was that significantly better?

You explained some things to me about the catcher WAR but any metric that had Wieters as worse than Salty up in Boston defies logic.

My eyes tell me that we pitched a lot better last year than 2013. I just can't fathom how all of that was due to defense.

[hoosiers]

I don't understand someone providing an analysis built upon WAR then tearing down WAR for its assigned values in the same post ....

We've already seen Dan Duquette fleece a major league GM who did not understand the WAR contribution of David Lough's defense. One year later, I would think that value is easier to understand. If the OPer wants to meet someone who believes Lough's contribution is in excess of some of our SPs, then I suggest writing any staffer of the baseball services that use/publish WAR.

Separately, I would like to understand how many balls in play our defense turns into outs relative to other defenses.

[Frobby]

Collectively as a staff they allowed 116 fewer runs, that is all due to the defense? Not snapping at you just making my point. Here I thought last year Norris and Chen pitched well and our bullpen stepped up minus Jim Johnson.

If Chen, Norris and Lough were all Free Agents there is no way Lough matches what those guys would get.

I think you raise a really interesting point. For what it's worth, for the position players:

2014: 25.1 oWAR, 7.1 dWAR

2013: 19.1 oWAR, 3.3 dWAR

It's hard for me to see how the offense contributed 6 more offensive wins in 2014 than in 2013, when we scored fewer runs in 2014 and ranked lower in runs scored compared to other teams in 2014 (we were 44 runs above average in 2013, 28 runs above average in 2013).

Moreover, the +3.8 in dWAR can't account for 116 fewer runs scored, even if you factor in that the average team scored 24 fewer runs in 2014 than 2013. It seems like the pitchers have to deserve at least some of the credit.

[Frobby]

Separately, I would like to understand how many balls in play our defense turns into outs relative to other defenses.

We were fourth in MLB in defensive efficiency in 2014, at .720 (median is .706), according to Baseball Prospectus. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1657902 I don't think that tells the whole story, however. For example, the O's were 2nd in MLB in double play rate, which doesn't show up in DE. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

[CA-ORIOLE]

Watching the 2013 and 2014 teams with your eyes you think the defense was that significantly better?My eyes tell me that we pitched a lot better last year than 2013. I just can't fathom how all of that was due to defense.

Between defense and leverage, I think you capture a great deal of the difference. We also had a further general decline in overall offense too, so maybe that helps them look better to some degree. That said, I agree that many of our pitchers looked (and were) better last year to my eyes, yes. Our pitchers may very will be effective at pitching to the to the defense as part of a systematic approach, but rWAR doesn't really consider that to a great degree when they debit the defensive value from the pitcher.

.

You explained some things to me about the catcher WAR but any metric that had Wieters as worse than Salty up in Boston defies logic.

I generally don't get too wrapped up about one years worth of WAR and rWARs Cera is highly questionable. That said i have heard comments that Salty has improved his defense, but I 'll confess that I really haven't watched him much. I'll also confess to being one of those people that think Wieter's defense is overrated by a lot of people.

[eddie83]

I don't understand someone providing an analysis built upon WAR then tearing down WAR for its assigned values in the same post ....

We've already seen Dan Duquette fleece a major league GM who did not understand the WAR contribution of David Lough's defense. One year later, I would think that value is easier to understand. If the OPer wants to meet someone who believes Lough's contribution is in excess of some of our SPs, then I suggest writing any staffer of the baseball services that use/publish WAR.

Separately, I would like to understand how many balls in play our defense turns into outs relative to other defenses.

Lough rotted on the bench for close to 4 months, being used as a late inning replacement. They traded for DeAza and then played him the final month. If the Orioles love Lough so much then why doesn't he play more? He played the equivalent of 55 games in the field. Why doesn't he play everyday? Why trade for Snider?

[eddie83]

Between defense and leverage, I think you capture a great deal of the difference. We also had a further general decline in overall offense too, so maybe that helps them look better to some degree. That said, I agree that many of our pitchers looked (and were) better last year to my eyes, yes. Our pitchers may very will be effective at pitching to the to the defense as part of a systematic approach, but rWAR doesn't really consider that to a great degree when they debit the defensive value from the pitcher.

.

I generally don't get too wrapped up about one years worth of WAR and rWARs Cera is highly questionable. That said i have heard comments that Salty has improved his defense, but I 'll confess that I really haven't watched him much. I'll also confess to being one of those people that think Wieter's defense is overrated by a lot of people.

Salty was benched in the World Series for his defense, maybe that just jumps out at me.

A pitchers command should play a role in how well a team defends I would think.

[eddie83]

My basic point is we allow 116 fewer runs and sabremetrically none of the credit goes to the pitching staff using WAR.

[hoosiers]

We were fourth in MLB in defensive efficiency in 2014, at .720 (median is .706), according to Baseball Prospectus. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1657902 I don't think that tells the whole story, however. For example, the O's were 2nd in MLB in double play rate, which doesn't show up in DE. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

Can this data be summed up (taking into account team defense UZR, errors, defensive efficiency, double play rate, etc - different stats I realize) in some manner like "Outs Per Game"? As in, the Os defense converted one out per game more than league average.

[Aristotelian]

I also wonder if loughs war is inflated because he was used a lot as a defensive sub without having to hit. Kind of like a Loogy that only pitches in favorable.situations. If he gets twice as many ABs he might not double his war.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You can't used dWAR or individual defense ratings to do this.

rWAR/bRef uses aggregate BIS hit data to calculate this and it's easy enough to extract.

1. In 2014, bref showed a 0.31 ra9def for the Orioles pitchers. That is huge and probably fairly unprecedented number. In 2013 that number was 0.11.

So, taking an average of 1,450 innings over a season, I'm coming up with about 32.2 runs saved by the Orioles "defense" in 2014 versus 2013:

(1,450 x 0.20) / 9 = 32.2 runs

2. The run environment in the AL East was down significantly as compared to the rest of the league last year. Our 4 AL East competitors scored almost half a run less in 2014 than in 2013 (0.48 runs less). The OP states that league average was 0.15 runs less.

Figuring 72 games with our 4 AL East competitors I'm coming up with about 35 runs and maybe another 10 for the rest if the league. So approximately 45 runs on run environment alone.

3. I'm also guessing (i'm pretty sure) we performed better in leverage situations in 2014 than we did in 2013 and some of this is not accounted for.

That said, between 1 and 2, I'm accounting for a 77.7 run differential. If somebody sees an error or disagrees, let me know. Granted some of you may see the line between pitching defense and defense as blurred, but the accounting/reasoning seams to be there in general.