Fangraphs: JJ's Offensive Hidden Collapse

[Il BuonO]

His only BIP type frequency of any note is his liner rate. Though a 55-percentile rate might not catch your eye, it?s way up from the 21, 8 and 8 marks he posted in his first three years as an Oriole. While liner rates fluctuate more than those of other BIP types, some hitters do develop strong tendencies to post high or low marks. It would seem that Hardy?s inability to create line drive contact ? he?s had liner rate percentile ranks below 10 in four of the past seven seasons ? is part of his ?true-talent? portfolio.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-j-hardys-hidden-offensive-collapse/

We still get the defense though.

[Redskins Rick]

His only BIP type frequency of any note is his liner rate. Though a 55-percentile rate might not catch your eye, it?s way up from the 21, 8 and 8 marks he posted in his first three years as an Oriole. While liner rates fluctuate more than those of other BIP types, some hitters do develop strong tendencies to post high or low marks. It would seem that Hardy?s inability to create line drive contact ? he?s had liner rate percentile ranks below 10 in four of the past seven seasons ? is part of his ?true-talent? portfolio

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-j-hardys-hidden-offensive-collapse/

We still get the defense though.

Maybe it has to do with his back, which is supposed to be healthy.

[Il BuonO]

The writer allows for Hardy's injury. The article is linked.

[Frobby]

This is one of the more interesting analyses I've read in a while. Among other things, the author cites data on the average velocity of fly balls and "fly ball pull ratio," two stats I've never seen published. Assuming this is available for all batters and pitchers, I'd think statisticians could come up with adjusted versions of BABIP, FIP and the like that are a lot more sophisticated than the stats we rely on today to determine results that might be a fluke.

That said, I'm not sure I fully agree with the author's analysis of Hardy. I think Hardy tried to hit the ball up the middle a lot more, and some of the increase in his LD rate was the result of a change in approach.

At the end of the day, Hardy will be 32 this season and I don't expect him to hit as well over the next three years as he did in the last four. But I'm not expecting a precipitous drop-off, either. I guess we will see.

[Can_of_corn]

This is one of the more interesting analyses I've read in a while. Among other things, the author cites data on the average velocity of fly balls and "fly ball pull ratio," two stats I've never seen published. Assuming this is available for all batters and pitchers, I'd think statisticians could come up with adjusted versions of BABIP, FIP and the like that are a lot more sophisticated than the stats we rely on today to determine results that might be a fluke.

That said, I'm not sure I fully agree with the author's analysis of Hardy. I think Hardy tried to hit the ball up the middle a lot more, and some of the increase in his LD rate was the result of a change in approach.

At the end of the day, Hardy will be 32 this season and I don't expect him to hit as well over the next three years as he did in the last four. But I'm not expecting a precipitous drop-off, either. I guess we will see.

Pretty sure the stats are from the MBLAM stuff.

As for FIP there is a newly released version of FIP the creator is calling cFIP.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/fip-in-context/

[Il BuonO]

This is one of the more interesting analyses I've read in a while. Among other things, the author cites data on the average velocity of fly balls and "fly ball pull ratio," two stats I've never seen published. Assuming this is available for all batters and pitchers, I'd think statisticians could come up with adjusted versions of BABIP, FIP and the like that are a lot more sophisticated than the stats we rely on today to determine results that might be a fluke.

That said, I'm not sure I fully agree with the author's analysis of Hardy. I think Hardy tried to hit the ball up the middle a lot more, and some of the increase in his LD rate was the result of a change in approach.

At the end of the day, Hardy will be 32 this season and I don't expect him to hit as well over the next three years as he did in the last four. But I'm not expecting a precipitous drop-off, either. I guess we will see.

Up the middle and to the right side which may have been a result of him not being able to turn on pitches like he ordinarily has in the past. The author quantities it as his pull rate on GBs.

I'm interested as to whether JJ keeps a similar approach this year or goes back to primarily being a pull hitter.

[Frobby]

Pretty sure the stats are from the MBLAM stuff.

As for FIP there is a newly released version of FIP the creator is calling cFIP.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/fip-in-context/

cFIP is very interesting, and it certainly sounds like a big improvement on FIP and xFIP. It still doesn't factor in "how hard the ball was hit," although it seems that data is now available. FWIW, here are the 2014 results for Orioles pitchers (on a scale where 100 is average, and lower is better):

Miller 43

O'Day 80

Matusz 90

Britton 93

Hunter 96

Webb 97

Chen 98

Gausman 100

Norris 101

Tillman 106

Gonzalez 108

McFarland 109

Jimenez 112

Wesley Wright was at 109.

The Brian Matusz bashers might want to take note.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Hardy was clearly trying to hit the ball more to the opposite field last year and did so with reasonable success. Also, his OPS+ was 93+ last year. In relative terms, he was pretty close to his career average and much better than 2012 when he hit 22 home runs. Whether that approach was due to issues with his back or adapting to the changing defensive environment I don't know. Maybe some of both. He clearly did not seem to have enough power to hit home runs to the opposite field last year though.

Overall, It think his approach was good, the results were fine, and it's likely something we'll see more hitters taking to adapt to the defensive positioning.

[Il BuonO]

Hardy was clearly trying to hit the ball more to the opposite field last year and did so with reasonable success. Also, his OPS+ was 93+ last year. In relative terms, he was pretty close to his career average and much better than 2012 when he hit 22 home runs. Whether that approach was due to issues with his back or adapting to the changing defensive environment I don't know. Maybe some of both. He clearly did not seem to have enough power to hit home runs to the opposite field last year though.

Overall, It think his approach was good, the results were fine, and it's likely something we'll see more hitters taking to adapt to the defensive positioning.

You remember him going the other as a response to the shift? I have no problem with the results, I just question whether JJ is good enough to make that adjustment.

[Can_of_corn]

cFIP is very interesting, and it certainly sounds like a big improvement on FIP and xFIP. It still doesn't factor in "how hard the ball was hit," although it seems that data is now available. FWIW, here are the 2014 results for Orioles pitchers (on a scale where 100 is average, and lower is better):

Miller 43

O'Day 80

Matusz 90

Britton 93

Hunter 96

Webb 97

Chen 98

Gausman 100

Norris 101

Tillman 106

Gonzalez 108

McFarland 109

Jimenez 112

Wesley Wright was at 109.

The Brian Matusz bashers might want to take note.

I agree it is interesting I was going to make a thread for the topic but figured a lot of folks here were suffering from FIP fatigue.

They are doing a similarly inclusive version of pitch framing as well.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You remember him going the other as a response to the shift? I have no problem with the results, I just question whether JJ is good enough to make that adjustment.

Yes. Positioning/shifting whatever. Why else? I haven't seen the data but it appeared to me he hit much more to the right side, and probably up the middle, last year that I could tell.