Will 2015 Dictate The Rest of Matt Wieters' Career?

[webbrick2010]

I would still put money on Wieters finishing this season with an OPS > .700. As for his hitting, while he would be a below average bat at DH and first base at this point, I think it is a fair assumption that he would improve to average if he wasn't catching 130+ games a year.

Man, I'd love to take that money. You do realize that in his last full season at a prime age of 27 he put up a .704 OPS. His career OPS is only .743

Now he is 29 and recovering from TJ surgery. He may never OPS >.700 again.

[MurphDogg]

Man, I'd love to take that money. You do realize that in his last full season at a prime age of 27 he put up a .704 OPS. His career OPS is only .743

Now he is 29 and recovering from TJ surgery. He may never OPS >.700 again.

Yes, I do realize that. I also realize that in the previous two seasons he had an OPS of .764 and .778 and I understand how players have bad seasons and then regress to the mean. There is no reason to suspect that 2013 is the new normal for Wieters and indeed he was hitting well in 2014. While it is possible that his career is never the same after the Tommy John surgery, I think the more likely outcome is that he returns to somewhere near his career norm, which would easily clear .700 OPS.

[jjnono]

We are all entitled to an opinion, but your opinion that he is the most overrated is all wet and pure horse hockey.

You do realize he leads all starting catchings in the number of runners thrown out?

He has received a Fielding Bible Award and gold glove in 2011 as the best defensive catcher in MLB.

Another Glod glove in 2012.

Has he bat like they expected no, but dang, to go all the way to overrated is just wrong.

There is no question in my mind that Wieters name will come up frequently when fans discuss over-rated-ness in 20 years. He was on the cover of Sports Illustrated, which described him as the next Johnny Bench and the savior of the Os. There were YEARS on this very board whn members salivated themselves silly discussing how good he would be. And a lot of it revolved around his offense.

No doubt Wieters was a special defensive player. But his offense was never what it was predicted to be, and now his defense is at risk. I do believe that two years ago, in response to the hordes clamoring to sign Wieters to a long-term extension, I insisted it wasn't worth it, because he was effectively one major injury away from being a below-average first baseman or DH. That might now be the case. Can't blame Matt for any of this, by the way, it's just how it goes sometimes. I don't bear him any ill will, but the Os need to look at other options next year.

[MurphDogg]

There is no question in my mind that Wieters name will come up frequently when fans discuss over-rated-ness in 20 years. He was on the cover of Sports Illustrated, which described him as the next Johnny Bench and the savior of the Os.

You got a source for that? I don't believe the article said anything about Johnny Bench or saviors.

[MurphDogg]

You got a source for that? I don't believe the article said anything about Johnny Bench or saviors.

I looked it up. Nothing of the sort. No mention of Johnny Bench and the only talk of saviors is in talking about the foolishness of "The Next Big Thing" as a concept. Here is the article for people who want to remember when Wieters' possibilities were limitless.

[webbrick2010]

Yes, I do realize that. I also realize that in the previous two seasons he had an OPS of .764 and .778 and I understand how players have bad seasons and then regress to the mean. There is no reason to suspect that 2013 is the new normal for Wieters and indeed he was hitting well in 2014. While it is possible that his career is never the same after the Tommy John surgery, I think the more likely outcome is that he returns to somewhere near his career norm, which would easily clear .700 OPS.

Hope you are right.... but previous years = younger healthier player

Present year = older recovering from major surgery player

We know that he was 0-23 in ST, and in the games I watched he didn't come even remotely close to hitting a ball hard...

I wonder what he looked like in BP. It's one thing to be in a slump but most good hitters still drive the ball in BP. If he wasn't that would have been an indication that his bat speed had not yet returned. Anyone actually watch the O's during a BP session and see MW hit? I suspect that people close to the team have a good idea how far MW is from being a successful ML hitter again.

[Frobby]

Man, I'd love to take that money. You do realize that in his last full season at a prime age of 27 he put up a .704 OPS. His career OPS is only .743

Now he is 29 and recovering from TJ surgery. He may never OPS >.700 again.

Yes, I do realize that. I also realize that in the previous two seasons he had an OPS of .764 and .778 and I understand how players have bad seasons and then regress to the mean. There is no reason to suspect that 2013 is the new normal for Wieters and indeed he was hitting well in 2014. While it is possible that his career is never the same after the Tommy John surgery, I think the more likely outcome is that he returns to somewhere near his career norm, which would easily clear .700 OPS.

He could go any direction from here. I find it interesting that, although Wieters was 0 for 23 this spring, he only struck out four times. Was he hitting the ball hard but right at people? Was he making weak contact? I have no idea. I certainly think his best days as a hitter could be either ahead of him or behind him, and there isn't a good way to know.

[El Gordo]

I think all this pessimism about Wieters' future is fueled by sour grapes. First that he never turned out to be the SHJ the media promised he would be; second he is a Boras client and therefore out of our price range.

[O-The-Memories]

I think all this pessimism about Wieters' future is fueled by sour grapes. First that he never turned out to be the SHJ the media promised he would be; second he is a Boras client and therefore out of our price range.

Excellent point. There are people that were disappointed with Ken Griffey Jr's career when he's a first ballot HOF player. The truth lies somewhere in between for Matt Wieters. He has to be labeled a disappointment when compared to expectations that some people (myself included) had, but when he's healthy he's still one of the best overall catchers in the game. The question that remains to be answered is if he can fully recover from his injury. If so, he's a 2.5-3 win player, which is good. Trying to see the realities of a situation without looking at expectations is tough.

[FanSince88]

As for his hitting, while he would be a below average bat at DH and first base at this point, I think it is a fair assumption that he would improve to average if he wasn't catching 130+ games a year.

I'm not so sure that is a "fair" assumption to make. I think it is more likely that WYSIWYG from him at the plate regardless of what position he plays in the field -- that is, good for a catcher but very "meh" for a DH or 1B. I would be shocked if he ever regularly bats cleanup or 3rd again (unless it's for a very offensively-challenged team).

[MurphDogg]

I'm not so sure that is a "fair" assumption to make. I think it is more likely that WYSIWYG from him at the plate regardless of what position he plays in the field -- that is, good for a catcher but very "meh" for a DH or 1B. I would be shocked if he ever regularly bats cleanup or 3rd again (unless it's for a very offensively-challenged team).

So you think he would be the same hitter if he was playing a much less physically taxing defensive position? And he didn't have to spend time studying the tendencies of all of his pitchers and opposing hitters? I gotta say I disagree. Victor Martinez seems to be doing ok after moving out from behind the plate.

[atomic]

This is his last season with the Orioles. I don't really care what he does after this season.

[weams]

I looked it up. Nothing of the sort. No mention of Johnny Bench and the only talk of saviors is in talking about the foolishness of "The Next Big Thing" as a concept. Here is the article for people who want to remember when Wieters' possibilities were limitless.

I remember that his upside was Jason Varitek. But we all had that one minor league season to salivate over as well. It's what Tony always preaches in the minors. AGE.

[birrman54]

So you think he would be the same hitter if he was playing a much less physically taxing defensive position? And he didn't have to spend time studying the tendencies of all of his pitchers and opposing hitters? I gotta say I disagree. Victor Martinez seems to be doing ok after moving out from behind the plate.

VMart averaged a 125 wRC+ in 2004-2008 with the Indians. Matt Wieters has never had an offensive season above 110.

[MurphDogg]

VMart averaged a 125 wRC+ in 2004-2008 with the Indians. Matt Wieters has never had an offensive season above 110.

The question is whether he would improve or stay the same, not whether he would be as good as Victor Martinez.