Three years ago today. #ThrowbackThursday

[fearthenoodle]

LINK

2012 Organizational Rankings: #30 ? Baltimore

by Dave Cameron - March 26, 2012

2012 Outlook: (29th)

The Orioles would be a long shot to be a contender in any division in baseball, as their young pitching hasn?t emerged as they had hoped and they?ve struggled to find good complementary offensive pieces to surround their best young players. As such, this a team that is going to give up a lot of runs and not score enough to compensate. When you add in the level of competition they face in the American League East, it would take something close to the largest miracle in sports history for the Orioles to win their division this season. The addition of a second wild card spot does make it more possible for the Orioles to hope they can play in October again at some point, but that point is not this year. The talent level just isn?t in place to compete with good Major League teams, and in a division with three of the seven best teams in baseball ahead of them, they should consider a 75 win season a success.

2013+ Outlook: (28th)

Unfortunately for Baltimore, they only have one Matt Wieters. Adam Jones is a solid piece, but he?s only under club control for two more seasons, and other clubs are already anticipating that he?ll be put on the block sooner than later. J.J. Hardy and Nick Markakis are more useful pieces than true building blocks, and injuries have taken a toll on both. As for the pitching, it went from promising to questionable in a hurry, and the organization will be lucky if they can get two good starting pitchers out of their vaunted group of prospects from two years ago. Down on the farm, there are a couple good prospects on the way, but Marc Hulet still rated the farm system as just the 25th best in baseball ? it drops off very quickly after Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado. If those two can develop at a quick pace and begin to contribute for the Orioles at some point in 2013, then they might be able to begin assembling a core of players they can win with. The long term outlook is better than the short term, but it?s still not great.

Baseball Operations: (30th)

No offense to Dan Duquette, but he was not the Orioles first choice to take over as GM this off-season. He wasn?t even their second choice. It?s not even clear that he was a legitimate consideration for the position until the team had been rebuffed by both Jerry DiPoto and Tony LaCava. That they eventually turned to someone who had been out of baseball for nearly a decade to take over the ship says something about the Orioles ability to lure talented employees to the franchise, and speaks mostly to the negative effects that Peter Angelos continues to have on the franchise.

----

With a new wave of front office talent crashing into front offices are furious rates, it?s nearly impossible to turn over a front office and not get an analytical upgrade in the process, but the Orioles may have accomplished exactly that this winter.

Overall: (30th)

The Orioles total was fractionally lower than the Houston Astros, and after a surprising (and essentially incorrect ? consider this our mea culpa) #16 rating last year, Baltimore is presently rated as the franchise with the longest road to travel before they become legitimate contenders. They play in a monster of a division, their team isn?t good, their farm system still needs work, and they?ve been unable to convince fresh young front office talent to come work for their stifling owner. The market has potential, but the team will have to win in order to convince the fans to come back, and that doesn?t seem to be in the cards any time soon. This is not an easy problem to solve.

[Phantom]

Have to give credit to everyone in our organization for exceeding expectations at every level. I'm sure people will want to bash Dave Cameron, but it's not like he was alone in this. A good reminder of the desolate wasteland we came from.

[weams]

LINK

2012 Organizational Rankings: #30 ? Baltimore

by Dave Cameron - March 26, 2012

2012 Outlook: (29th)

The Orioles would be a long shot to be a contender in any division in baseball, as their young pitching hasn?t emerged as they had hoped and they?ve struggled to find good complementary offensive pieces to surround their best young players. As such, this a team that is going to give up a lot of runs and not score enough to compensate. When you add in the level of competition they face in the American League East, it would take something close to the largest miracle in sports history for the Orioles to win their division this season. The addition of a second wild card spot does make it more possible for the Orioles to hope they can play in October again at some point, but that point is not this year. The talent level just isn?t in place to compete with good Major League teams, and in a division with three of the seven best teams in baseball ahead of them, they should consider a 75 win season a success.

2013+ Outlook: (28th)

Unfortunately for Baltimore, they only have one Matt Wieters. Adam Jones is a solid piece, but he?s only under club control for two more seasons, and other clubs are already anticipating that he?ll be put on the block sooner than later. J.J. Hardy and Nick Markakis are more useful pieces than true building blocks, and injuries have taken a toll on both. As for the pitching, it went from promising to questionable in a hurry, and the organization will be lucky if they can get two good starting pitchers out of their vaunted group of prospects from two years ago. Down on the farm, there are a couple good prospects on the way, but Marc Hulet still rated the farm system as just the 25th best in baseball ? it drops off very quickly after Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado. If those two can develop at a quick pace and begin to contribute for the Orioles at some point in 2013, then they might be able to begin assembling a core of players they can win with. The long term outlook is better than the short term, but it?s still not great.

Baseball Operations: (30th)

No offense to Dan Duquette, but he was not the Orioles first choice to take over as GM this off-season. He wasn?t even their second choice. It?s not even clear that he was a legitimate consideration for the position until the team had been rebuffed by both Jerry DiPoto and Tony LaCava. That they eventually turned to someone who had been out of baseball for nearly a decade to take over the ship says something about the Orioles ability to lure talented employees to the franchise, and speaks mostly to the negative effects that Peter Angelos continues to have on the franchise.

----

With a new wave of front office talent crashing into front offices are furious rates, it?s nearly impossible to turn over a front office and not get an analytical upgrade in the process, but the Orioles may have accomplished exactly that this winter.

Overall: (30th)

The Orioles total was fractionally lower than the Houston Astros, and after a surprising (and essentially incorrect ? consider this our mea culpa) #16 rating last year, Baltimore is presently rated as the franchise with the longest road to travel before they become legitimate contenders. They play in a monster of a division, their team isn?t good, their farm system still needs work, and they?ve been unable to convince fresh young front office talent to come work for their stifling owner. The market has potential, but the team will have to win in order to convince the fans to come back, and that doesn?t seem to be in the cards any time soon. This is not an easy problem to solve.

Very good throwback. And Dave is ok. It's just that he is a biased Mariner fan. That's all.

[Phantom]

Very good throwback. And Dave is ok. It's just that he is a biased Mariner fan. That's all.

He is certainly a Mariner fan. I've never read anything that makes me think he's biased towards them. His statistical models seem to project them to do a bit too well occasionally, but he is not alone in that.

[srock]

If sports had a futures market, sports journalists would never make any money.

[Phantom]

If sports had a futures market, sports journalists would never make any money.

I agree about most traditional writers, but advanced stats guys have been known to start out as successful gamblers. It's not like Fangraphs doesn't hold their predictions accountable. Heck, if anything, Vegas has had to adjust their lines to prediction systems.

[Scrat1]

He is certainly a Mariner fan. I've never read anything that makes me think he's biased towards them. His statistical models seem to project them to do a bit too well occasionally, but he is not alone in that.

Right. He's often been very critical of the Mariners in the past.

[OFFNY]

o

I love hindsight.

If only they knew what was to become of this franchise over the next 3 seasons (2012-2014.)

Such as ........

sc2gg says:

(March 26, 2012 at 10:07 A.M.)

When I first read "2012 Outlook: '31' ″, I was thinking that if someone was able to place 31st in a 30 team league, it would be the Orioles.

:wedge:

[Beef Supreme]

I agree about most traditional writers, but advanced stats guys have been known to start out as successful gamblers. It's not like Fangraphs doesn't hold their predictions accountable. Heck, if anything, Vegas has had to adjust their lines to prediction systems.

Vegas lines follow the money bet.

[Beef Supreme]

o

I love hindsight.

If only they knew what was to become of this franchise over the next 3 seasons (2012-2014.)

Such as ........

sc2gg says:

(March 26, 2012 at 10:07 A.M.)

When I first read "2012 Outlook: '31' ″, I was thinking that if someone was able to place 31st in a 30 team league, it would be the Orioles.

:wedge:

This thread is very enjoyable!

[Rich Mac]

If sports had a futures market, sports journalists would never make any money.

I believe that would be called the Sports Book at Caesars ;-)

You're right though, I don't know of any sports journalists that have given up their careers for The Strip.

[Phantom]

Vegas lines follow the money bet.

They will follow it if the get way too much money on one side. They initially set it to try to get a 50/50 split (thus ensuring them profit no matter what) and those are the lines I was talking about. They had to start paying attention to the models before putting out their initial lines or risk a bunch of early sharp money on one side or the other.

[Orioles0615]

Remember when we were going to trade Jones for Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and Mike Minor. And they said no lol

[MurphDogg]

Remember when we were going to trade Jones for Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and Mike Minor. And they said no lol

That's not exactly right. Dan Connolly claimed that the Braves offered Jurrjens, Prado and an unnamed prospect for Jones and the Orioles turned them down and countered with Jurrjens, Prado and "two other premium guys".