Buster Olney says O's win 56 games

[Camden_yardbird]

I think everyone is evaluating the Orioles by what they lost, and not by what they gained. I also believe they are not evaluating the improvement in talent. I think this team will be bad, but if you evaluate this team as a 66 win team that lost its biggest producing pitcher and hitter only then I understand the comment. But its not doing your homework.

If I were a national analyst for baseball at this point in the year I'd be pretty sure I had looked at every team and really evaluated what they gained and what they lost. I don't know that Olney did this when doing his evaluation.

I think that was especially evident if you looked at some of his other evaluations this morning on Mike and Mike.

[lookynooky]

I think we won't have 56 games, I think we'll be near 68-72 wins in a race with 3rd place until 2-3 weeks before the season ends with the Blue Jays. But it will be:

1.Boston 98 wins

2.Yankees 90 wins

3.Jays 79 wins

4.O's 72 wins

5.Rays 63 wins

[Mackus]

I see a loss in Starting Pitching in Loewen addition and the Subtraction of Bedard. Guts for the whole season helps out. Plus we have a lot more depth than last season.

The offense should be better if we keep Roberts. If we trade him, it will be worse.

The starting pitching will be much worse:

Bedard >> Loewen

Guthri ('07) > Guthrie ('08)

Cabrera '07 = Cabrera '08

Trachsel '07 > Trachsel '08

I do think the contribution we get from Olson, Patton, Penn, Liz, and whoever else are our #5-#10 starters will be better than we got from the #5-#10 starters last season, but not nearly enough to make up for the huge loss from Bedard to Loewen (even though I think Loewen will be a pleasant surprise) and the steps backwards from Guthrie and Trachsel.

You are really overestimating the impact Bako had on the team. Replacing Bako with Quiroz might have 1/2 a win difference over the season, and probably not even that much.

[Scrat1]

I think we won't have 56 games, I think we'll be near 68-72 wins in a race with 3rd place until 2-3 weeks before the season ends with the Blue Jays. But it will be:

1.Boston 98 wins

2.Yankees 90 wins

3.Jays 79 wins

4.O's 72 wins

5.Rays 63 wins

98 wins? Christ.

[RShack]

Like I said in the other thread about this very topic, predicting 56 W's shows that Buster's not paying much quality-attention.

It's actually quite hard to win that few games. It's not easy to be that bad.

If everybody does just-OK, they'll be about as good as last year.

If most guys do just-OK, and a handful of key guys do better than that, they'll prolly win more.

To win only 56 would require that *lots* of guys do really, really badly.

If the pitching is atrocious, which I think it will be it will not be that difficult to lose 56 or more games. I expect this team to get bludgoned to death in the AL East anyway. I think they could well set a record for most different pitchers used during a season and I expect some more 20-30 run type games. I also expect a lot of long losing streaks as they no longer have Bedard as the stopper. Just keeping it real folks, and hoping I am somehow wrong but I doubt it.

OK, so the diff is that you are so sure that the pitching will be atrocious that you think anything else is not "keeping it real", while I'm not sure how the pitching will turn out.

I expect it will be a roller-coaster. I expect there will be some streaks where we want to blow our brains out. I have no clue about how many of those streaks there will be, nor about how long they will last.

Care to make a bet about how many 20-30 run games there will be?

Care to make a bet about them cutting DCab?

[Camden_yardbird]

The starting pitching will be much worse:

Bedard >> Loewen

Guthri ('07) > Guthrie ('08)

Cabrera '07 = Cabrera '08

Trachsel '07 > Trachsel '08

Bullpen '08>>>>>Bullpen '07

Offense '08>>Offense '07

Thats my hope at least. I don't know that Guthrie won't be equivalent either.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I agree that the pitching has potential but that doesn't win games now. I fully expect a record setting (at least for the Orioles records) year for lousy pitching. It should however get better over time as they weed out the guys who don't belong and get rid of the hangers on (like Traschel and Cabrera). Talent is there it is just not developed yet.

But the point is that it likely will develop as the season moves along.

Unless we start the year something like 12-44 through the end of May, I can't see any way the pitchers getting better can't pull us above that level.

[JTrea81]

The offense should be better if we keep Roberts. If we trade him, it will be worse.

The starting pitching will be much worse:

Bedard >> Loewen

Guthri ('07) > Guthrie ('08)

Cabrera '07 = Cabrera '08

Trachsel '07 > Trachsel '08

I do think the contribution we get from Olson, Patton, Penn, Liz, and whoever else are our #5-#10 starters will be better than we got from the #5-#10 starters last season, but not nearly enough to make up for the huge loss from Bedard to Loewen (even though I think Loewen will be a pleasant surprise) and the steps backwards from Guthrie and Trachsel.

You are really overestimating the impact Bako had on the team. Replacing Bako with Quiroz might have 1/2 a win difference over the season, and probably not even that much.

The bullpen alone lost about 35-40 games for us last season. I expect that number to be cut down to at least average. So if the bullpen is better, it should make up for the additional games that the starters lose...

[osfan83]

I say somewhere between 68-72 wins. It is hard to win only 56 games. How many wins do you think we will get against Tampa. Toronto, KC, Tex, Oak and Wash? I could see 33 wins against these teams this year. That means only 23 wins against the rest of the league. Do you think we can win 5 against Boston and 5 against MFY? If so that leaves 13 total wins against the rest of the AL and interleague play.

[BaltimoreTerp]

The offense should be better if we keep Roberts. If we trade him, it will be worse.

The starting pitching will be much worse:

Bedard >> Loewen

Guthri ('07) > Guthrie ('08)

Cabrera '07 = Cabrera '08

Trachsel '07 > Trachsel '08

I do think the contribution we get from Olson, Patton, Penn, Liz, and whoever else are our #5-#10 starters will be better than we got from the #5-#10 starters last season, but not nearly enough to make up for the huge loss from Bedard to Loewen (even though I think Loewen will be a pleasant surprise) and the steps backwards from Guthrie and Trachsel.

You are really overestimating the impact Bako had on the team. Replacing Bako with Quiroz might have 1/2 a win difference over the season, and probably not even that much.

A couple points.

You can't assume Cabrera's regression is permanent. His previous three seasons, when we were all praying for improvement, were much better then last year.

If he ends up with a ERA in the 4.7-8 range, it will be a big improvement over last year.

And like has already been mentioned, the bullpen can not be any worse then it was last year (realistically).

So, even with the drop from Bedard to Loewen, the improvements elsewhere (especially if the new pitchers step-up in those #5-#10 starter areas) could even it out overall.

[Mackus]

We said last spring training that the bullpen realistically couldn't be any worse than last season. Well, it was worse. I doubt we'll be worse than last season, but I don't think we're going to be one of the better bullpens in the league, a little improvement is about all I'd expect. We're gonna have a lot of young guys in the pen who are far from a sure thing to perform well this season. Its all about figuring out who we can rely on for the future and who we can't.

Walker, Sherill and Bradford will likely be good. Its completely possible that we don't find anybody else who is a plus out of the bullpen. I think we'll have a couple guys step up, but we're very unlikely to be a dominant bullpen, especially if we move Walker and/or Bradford at midseason.

[Old#5fan]

But the point is that it likely will develop as the season moves along.

Unless we start the year something like 12-44 through the end of May, I can't see any way the pitchers getting better can't pull us above that level.

I personally don't think the will be getting better over the course of this season as you seem to think. I think the improvement will be noticed over the course of the next two - four seasons.

[Old#5fan]

OK, so the diff is that you are so sure that the pitching will be atrocious that you think anything else is not "keeping it real", while I'm not sure how the pitching will turn out.

I expect it will be a roller-coaster. I expect there will be some streaks where we want to blow our brains out. I have no clue about how many of those streaks there will be, nor about how long they will last.

Care to make a bet about how many 20-30 run games there will be?

Care to make a bet about them cutting DCab?

I think there will be at least one and possibly two or more 20 run game blowouts, although I would be stupid to bet on it. I also won't bet on Cabrera getting cut either, because he might get his contract voided or traded. I think this is his last year as an Oriole though and I would be willing to make a friendly wager on that of say a 20 spot if you want to.

[33rdst]

So are we going to allow more the 900 runs or are we going to score less the 650. or to put it another way are we going to allow more then 5.55 runs a game or are we going to score less then 4 runs per game.

[OsandBohs11]

I see no reason why as to why this team can't win more games than last year, and Buster, that prediction is ridiculous. We removed Miguel Tejada but we gained power in Luke Scott and Adam Jones. I think the two combined will very well make-up for what Miggy would have done in 2008. Keep in mind aswell that what he does this year at the Astros park is not related to OPACY because they have even more of a hitters park than we do. Also Ramon was on a down year and has come too play this year.

Yes, we lost the beloved Erik Bedard, but also keep in mind he didn't win 20 games for us, he won. Sure he was great, but there is a big difference between the two. I see no reason that Loewen or Guthrie or DCab or all three couldn't win 13 games this year. Loewen was on track last year to do so and Guthrie could have won 11 or 12 if the bullpen hadn't blown it so many times last year. D-Cab, coudl turn it around this year, maybe hee won't, we say it every year. But the addition of Sherill, Sarfate and Aquino to the bullpen on top of having walker and bradford, can only help us. I don't see how this team only 50 something wins. I think this team has way more talent than most people thing. remember about Loewen, hard throwing lefty in his third year. I seem to remember a certain Erik who had 15 wins in his 3rd year. I don't want to say "you never know," because I do know that this team isn't as bad as people think.