Buster Olney says O's win 56 games

[Herbie]

Finally, I am reading a post that not only makes darn good sense but is truly grounded in reality not unbridled (and totally unfounded) optimism. Kudos to this post! Best I have seen on the entire thread.

Never thought I'd be agreeing with Old#5 - yikes.

To be clear the reason I don't see Scott/Hernandez as an improvement over Tejada/Payton is Hernandez not Scott.

[Old#5fan]

I'm pretty sure you can't void a player's contract for acting "goofy." With Ponson, it took two (three?) DUI arrests, a judge-punching incident, and a stint in jail before the O's voided his contract-- and even that was practically an unprecedented move. What has Cabrera ever done that's even remotely similar to this?

Cabrera may have his immature moments on the mound, but off the field, he's never gotten himself into a lick of trouble. He has absolutely nothing in common with Ponson, and it's insulting to Daniel to imply that he does.

Yeah, you are right. Probably just wishful thinking on my part as to how they could rid themselves of this guy. I don't view him as much of an asset as you can tell.

[Old#5fan]

Never thought I'd be agreeing with Old#5 - yikes.

To be clear the reason I don't see Scott/Hernandez as an improvement over Tejada/Payton is Hernandez not Scott.

I see it the other way, Scott (at least this year) is not much of an improvement not Hernandez, who is a huge defensive improvement but his offense a big decline from Tejada, although it could very well be both are minuses.

[Rex Thunder]

Finally, I am reading a post that not only makes darn good sense but is truly grounded in reality not unbridled (and totally unfounded) optimism. Kudos to this post! Best I have seen on the entire thread.

While that may be true, what so many fail to realize- while they compare last year's team and this year's team- is that th win total doesn't equate to the talent. The talent on the Orioles last year was at least 10 wins better. Add in the injuries, the bullpen, the questionable calls and decisions- and more importantly- the "sinking ship" feeling that pretty much settled in after the Mothers Day Massacre...albeit with a fight- and last year became a calamity- which got even worse late in the season- exacerbating an already long, cruel year.

There is no room for "intangibles" in stats and predictions it seems anymore- especially with a "rebuilding" team. But IMO, the new outlook and breath of fresh air being brought to the club will account for something. I'd say the new attitude might actually put 5-10 more wins on the board.

So many things went wrong last year that it almost wasn't even believable at times. This is a new year with a lot of new faces. New expectations (low ones). I really think people overestimate the value of a single player when we're talking about an 9 man starting roster.

(quick examples in another sport- the Texas Longhorns. They are playing better and higher ranked this year than last year- when they had Kevin Durant... noone expected them to do a thing this year- and yet they may end up a number 1 seed in the NCAA tourney.

The Los Angeles Lakers too- they were in turmoil pre-season- now they're the experts' favorite pick to win the NBA championship... go figure)

You just never know... and Im not saying this to imply we'll contend this year- but struggle to get 56 wins... NO WAY. We'll be close to 70, if not above...

[obannon35]

Buster Olney is an L7 weenie.:002_scool:

Someone gave me negative rep because I said Olney is a square?? Wow we're not in Kansas anymore. That's a quote from the kids movie The Sandlot but apparently not appropriate for an adult sports message board, sometimes this place is nonsense.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Finally, I am reading a post that not only makes darn good sense but is truly grounded in reality not unbridled (and totally unfounded) optimism. Kudos to this post! Best I have seen on the entire thread.

So, the most pessimistic analysis possible is "grounded in reality"?

Wow. No wonder you think what you do about Luke Scott.

[BaltimoreTerp]

It's pretty easy to see 56 as possible. Bedard is gone and there is no way of knowing if Cabrera or Loewen can find the strike zone.

I'm not certain that Scott/Hernandez is really that much better than Tejada/Payton if at all.

Millar, Mora, Huff and RHernandez are all another year older and could be asked to bat in the neighborhood of 2000 times. After Moore there is no depth to cover an injury to a starter.

Bradford and Walker are 33 and 35.

If the old guys start to really act old, it could be a long season.

It is a rebuilding year but beyond Jones and the last starting pitcher what hot newcomer is on the scene? This is just a slightly warmed-over version of last year's team with many of the key players just another year closer to overcooked. Hard to see them getting much better and just a few strained obliques from a whole lot worse.

Don't forget Scott and Sherrill.

And, we will have at least two new full-time starters (including Loewen), and an awful lot of potential in the guys fighting for the remaining spot (and hell, maybe Trachsel gets beat-out by someone).

Unless EVERYTHING goes wrong, we are guaranteed to win more then 56 games.

[SoBo]

Anything is possible, even 56 wins. That would get us the #1 pick, so that ain't so bad. I figure the upgrades in the bullpen should off-set the loss of Bedard and Scott should produce similar results to Miggy last year, so in my opinion the losses are essentially a wash. So I would expect this team to win between 65-75 games. I think 56 wins would be a total and utter disaster of injuries and regression by key young players. I trust the guys in Vegas that are paid to set lines and 66 wins seems like a pretty logical over/under line.

[Aberdeener]

As bad as things were with injuries last year, we can have just as many problems with injuries this year. What if Nick goes down? What if Luke Scott breaks his wrist? What if one or two key pitchers go down? I think we could win 56 games, sure. I think 56 is more likely than 75.

On another note, people need to wake up and realize this Tampa Bay team is not the Tampa of old. They spent money this off-season and have amazing prospects and young talent. At least this year, we're the joke of the AL East.

[Stevo5278]

Baltimore fans will have more fun watching the Orioles win 70 games than Boston fans will have watching the Red Sox stumble to 86 wins.

Just my opinion.

Amen... I look at this bunch like the group of guys in "Major League." A ragtag bunch of unknowns, rookies, and vets past their prime. At the least they'll be exciting to watch.

I don't know about the rest of you but I have ZERO expectations for a decent team this year. The last time I honestly felt that way going into a season was 1989 and they sure did surprise us!

For those of you who think I'm nuts to have expected a decent team over the last 10 years, I wasn't expecting them to contend for the playoffs but just to finish at .500 or so. That qualifies as decent around here. :-)

[Old#5fan]

As bad as things were with injuries last year, we can have just as many problems with injuries this year. What if Nick goes down? What if Luke Scott breaks his wrist? What if one or two key pitchers go down? I think we could win 56 games, sure. I think 56 is more likely than 75.

On another note, people need to wake up and realize this Tampa Bay team is not the Tampa of old. They spent money this off-season and have amazing prospects and young talent. At least this year, we're the joke of the AL East.

Hey, we could be the joke of the entire AL. Thank goodness for KC who probably saves us from that fate. I am not in the least upset about it though as we could (and should) get another very high draft pick which is what the team needs to help rebuild along with some vets performing well so they can fetch some more prospects in a trade mid season.

[Herbie]

Don't forget Scott and Sherrill.

And, we will have at least two new full-time starters (including Loewen), and an awful lot of potential in the guys fighting for the remaining spot (and hell, maybe Trachsel gets beat-out by someone).

Unless EVERYTHING goes wrong, we are guaranteed to win more then 56 games.

I don't think it would take too much to go wrong but I do agree that if they stay healthy 56 probably won't happen - I just think it's a lot more likely than people want to believe.

It's a team with some old folks and sometimes, for reasons unknown, teams can have age related washouts all at once. There is little precedence for strike-zone impaired pitchers showing tons of improvement - like we hope for from Cabrera and Loewen. Traschel will probably get a long leash.

I saw no evidence Trembley will use the bullpen any differently than Perlozzo did.

There is still very little depth.

I'm hopeful for more and support what they are finally trying to do but....

I think with the talent on hand 56 is more likely that 70.

[Sports Guy]

Luis Hernandez, as bad as he is, is likely going to be more valuable than Payton was because of his defense.

Scott will likely out OPS Tejada this year.

So, Hernandez + Scott is likely an upgrade.

Jones should be an upgrade over CPat.

I expect the offense to be about the same, maybe a little better this year.

I expect the pen to be better...Even if we deal an arm or 2 out of the pen, it won't happen until midseason and Ray will be back then anyway.

We don't have a Bedard anymore obviously but I think our rotation has a very good chance of being deeper and improved, especially because we should have better defense this year.

[tennOsfan]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we win between 60 and 80 games.

[Old#5fan]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we win between 60 and 80 games.

Anything sniffing 80 or upper 70's would be a miracle and would reap Trembly a "Manager of the Year" award in my opinion.