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Buster Olney says O's win 56 games


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Anything sniffing 80 or upper 70's would be a miracle and would reap Trembly a "Manager of the Year" award in my opinion.

There is a lot of validity in this comment.

If DT does a good job sitting guys and puts guys in better positions to succeed(ie goes with their strengths...payton, if he is here, versus lefties is an example of this), i think we could get a few extra wins.

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Ooh...a NY based writer isn't paying attention to the Orioles, and predicts they won't win any games this year. Dog bites man yet again. Yawn.

Out of the 2007 Orioles projected 1-5 starters, was there anyone who made it through the season w/o getting injured? IIRC, there wasn't.

Had Baez and Ray not also gone down with injuries, the bullpen could have been kept in role, and likely not cost the team as many games as it did.

Hell, Trembley and Mazzone were on the verge of pulling guys out of the stands to pitch last season...and given how some of the guys they did send out there performed, that might not have been such a bad idea.

If this team is relatively healthy, it can be competitive this year. It's likely to be (offensively) better at LF, CF and C, while possibly worse at SS and 2B. If a plague of injuries doesn't descend on the pitching staff again, it's likely to be better than last season.

If they get shredded by injury again this year, however, I don't think anybody knows where the bottom is. 56 wins might seem optimistic.

I'm gonna vote for reasonable good health, and 70 wins or thereabouts.

Possibly? Possibly?

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I haven't read the whole thread or the article in question. But while 55 wins is within the realm of possibility I think it's definitely on the low end. No team was within 11 games of that mark in 2007, and I doubt that an Oriole team including Markakis, Jones, Scott, possibly Roberts, Ramon Hernandez, and about 20 good young pitchers would be that awful.

Last year they had an historically awful pen, a AAA rotation and an indy league CF by August, Tejada having a bad year, no left fielder, and for much of the year no adequate 1B/DH/CF/C and they still beat 55 wins by 14.

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Last year they had an historically awful pen, a AAA rotation and an indy league CF by August, Tejada having a bad year, no left fielder, and for much of the year no adequate 1B/DH/CF/C and they still beat 55 wins by 14.

Of course, their Indy League CF outperformed their regular CF pretty handily.

Patterson: 269/.304/.386

Redman: .318/.341/.462

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MacPhail has decided to build starting from the bottom. That is were this team is. When Roberts is traded there will be two proven position players in their prime Markakis and Ramon.

Take each position and compare it to other teams. It is not a pretty sight. 105 losses is within reach.

Remember the focus in 2010-11. The O's have two terrible seasons to go through to get to the promised land.

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I don't think 56 wins is realistic; we would have to be a historically bad team for that to happen. However, we will almost certainly be a bad team. I would guesstimate us around 62 wins. I will be happy if we do better than that but I'm not expecting it, and really it doesn't matter anyway.

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I don't expect national media to spend much time thinking about the O's, but that doesn't mean that statements like Olney's make any sense.

The BP is going to be better simply because it can't be worse.

Even without Bedard, the rotation is likely to be as good as it was last year overall since injuries took their toll last year and we have more depth this year.

And on the offense, overall we upgrade or stay the same by losing Tejada but upgrading with Scott and Jones. Plus Hernandez, Huff and Gibbons are likely to be better.

That said this team could easily only win 55 games, since "Worst case scenario" usually is reality for the Orioles, but I still think 55 wins is the absolute worst case scenario -- which means there has to be a plane crash that kills half the roster.

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I don't pretend to know what will happen but when all 5 starters and about 4 of our bullpen guys all have significant If's associated with them, there's a huge potential for a bad year. That also means a lot of things have to go right for us to have a good year.

I love the potential of our young pitchers (particularly in the minors) but nobody's actually done much of anything yet. Honestly, Guthrie, Loewen and even Cabrera could all be very good but there's no way they would be above #'s 3, 4 and 5 on a good staff right now. I'd argue that Loewen and Cabrera would both be nice at #5 and somewhat risky any further up in the rotation (on a good team).

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Olney was on first take this morning and said that the top over achieving team in the AL will be the Yankees. I didn't think that was possible when you try to achieve what they do every year.

He also said that the Blue Jays may be a sleeper and may have the deepest pitching in the league. I don't know about that one either.

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Yeah, you are right. Probably just wishful thinking on my part as to how they could rid themselves of this guy. I don't view him as much of an asset as you can tell.

Right, because rebuilding teams don't need guys with 100 MPH fastballs who have shown at times that they can get quality major league batters out.

If we were competing next year I'd probably consider moving Cabrera, but considering where the Orioles are in theie rebuilding effort, i'm all for giving Cabrera another year to see if he can put it together.

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