2015 Nelson Cruz tracker thread

[Reboulet'sStache]

Both our corner outfielders have made errors costing us runs. Letting both Markakis and Cruz go while keeping Davis and Weiters was a mistake IMHO.

If the mistake was made, it was keeping Davis or Wieters. But letting Markakis and Cruz go wasn't a mistake. At the very least, that should have been done along with letting Davis and Wieters go.

[TheDirtyBird]

I believe our offense is going to be productive regardless, we haven't exactly struggled to score. Pitching is the issue here. Best wishes to Cruz

[WNY Orioles Fan]

I believe our offense is going to be productive regardless, we haven't exactly struggled to score. Pitching is the issue here. Best wishes to Cruz

But you know what. We sign Cruz and we could run away with the division. Now, yeah our offense might be productive, but it's gonna be more of a struggle.

[DrungoHazewood]

Opinions differ, i think he will have another 3 monster years.

How many players in all of baseball history have had "another 3 monster years" from age 36-38? I'd guess that over 90% of MLBers are out of baseball at those ages. Everyone wants to hope that the guy they just signed is the one who'll defy all the odds. But mostly they turn into Carlos Beltran, who at Cruz' age went from 4 wins to 3 to 2 to big contract to sub-replacement with several years left in his deal.

[DrungoHazewood]

Nice of Buck to say, but he got to the ball running less than full speed, and dropped it. That's called an error 9 times out of 10.

Highlighting the silliness of the concept of errors. DeAza runs at 75% to get to a ball that glances off his glove and it's usually an error. Nelson Cruz goes all out and never gets anywhere close to the ball and it's always a double.

[ledzepp8]

Opinions differ, i think he will have another 3 monster years.

Why do you think that? He's getting paid $14.5 million per for the next 4 years. He's only been worth that or more 3 times in 6+ seasons starting. So half the time and you expect him to be a monster in his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons.

[DrungoHazewood]

Why do you think that? He's getting paid $14.5 million per for the next 4 years. He's only been worth more than 3 times in 6+ seasons starting. So half the time and you expect him to be a monster in his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons.

Some folks weight their projections like this: 95% what they did for us last year, 3% prior history, 2% age.

[ledzepp8]

Some folks weight their projections like this: 95% what they did for us last year, 3% prior history, 2% age.

Pretty much. Look I would love it if we had the infinite resources of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, etc. But we don't. The fact that a few people on this board don't seem to get that, doesn't make it any less true. I'm perfectly fine with saying that it's not wise for the Orioles to give a middle reliever a 4+ year $40+ million dollar contract or a 34 year old probable DH $60 million over 4 years or a middling RFer with neck issues who's averaged 1.5 WAR over the past four years, 4 years and $40. These are wise decisions, it's not like DD is letting Manny or Tillman walk over 40-60 million.

[DrungoHazewood]

Pretty much. Look I would love it if we had the infinite resources of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, etc. But we don't. The fact that a few people on this board don't seem to get that, doesn't make it any less true. I'm perfectly fine with saying that it's not wise for the Orioles to give a middle reliever a 4+ year $40+ million dollar contract or a 34 year old probable DH $60 million over 4 years or a middling RFer with neck issues who's averaged 1.5 WAR over the past four years, 4 years and $40. These are wise decisions, it's not like DD is letting Manny or Tillman walk over 40-60 million.

There are a lot of people who think $25k in credit card debt and a BMW on a 96-month loan is normal. I like to think of the Orioles as a team that pays off its credit cards every month and buys a solid car on a 3-year loan. Maybe they're not putting away enough for retirement or the kids' college, but we'll see.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Some folks weight their projections like this: 95% what they did for us last year, 3% prior history, 2% age.

How much goes into future projections?

[TheDirtyBird]

But you know what. We sign Cruz and we could run away with the division. Now, yeah our offense might be productive, but it's gonna be more of a struggle.

I mean I still don't think we'd run away with it even if we had cruz considering the Jays are most certainly better and the sox offense is going to be very good. What I'm saying is our offense will be good enough, but the PITCHING could be an issue

[Bahama O's Fan]

I mean I still don't think we'd run away with it even if we had cruz considering the Jays are most certainly better and the sox offense is going to be very good. What I'm saying is our offense will be good enough, but the PITCHING could be an issue

If we had signed Cruz, who wouldn't we have signed or who would we have non-tendered? We would not be adding Cruz to this team; we would have to subtract someone.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yeah that ball has to be caught. He was right there, it just clanged off his glove. Happy that Lough is back for late inning defensive replacements.

Even if he wasn't running full speed, he was running and was close to the wall. You could see he took his eye off the ball just for a moment to gauge his distance to the wall and that's why he missed it. Tough play, but I agree it should be an error and also agree with Drungo that's why errors aren't a great judge of defensive efficiency

[TheDirtyBird]

If we had signed Cruz' date=' who wouldn't we have signed or who would we have non-tendered? We would not be adding Cruz to this team; we would have to subtract someone.[/quote']

What exactly are you trying to say here?

[OFFNY]

We'll see how he looks by the end of this year. This is a guy who was constantly on the DL and Buck managed to play him perfectly while also getting lucky.

We all know he's going to hit bombs while he's healthy though, kind of an unnecessary thread.

Redundant, given the one already in the MLB section.

Merge request:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/147322-2015-Nelson-Cruz-tracker-thread