2015 Nelson Cruz tracker thread

[CA-ORIOLE]

Media reported that the Orioles had the 2nd best offer on the table, so that tells me, they did make a good attempt to keep him, just wasn't going to be foolish.

[Crazysilver03]

To keep him would have meant spending money.

And for some, the idea of spending money on anything other than arbitration is terrifying. God forbid you sign a player who can help you... I dunno... WIN games.

MSK

And here is a example 1718 why you are a troll. No one on this board is making the argument to only spend money on arbitration.

[Crazysilver03]

and some posters felt he wouldn't be on the 25 man roster.

And what is your point? He still might be gone when Hardy or Paredes is activated.

[Herman]

People are perfectly fine spending money. What we have a problem with it this attitude that the Orioles budget is really about $50M/year more than whatever the payroll currently is. It's kind of a reverse tax argument. You ask someone what the "right" level of taxation is and it's always something like "oh, about 2/3rds what I pay now" no matter what they pay now is.

I agree

The window of opportunity to win a championship is now. Keep Cruz and Miller and the O's go into this season as legit contenders. Instead they are not better or worse than any other team in the AL East. This off season was a lost opportunity for the O's. They didn't even have to add anyone. Just keep the current team intact. Oh well.

I agree. The AL East is vulnerable and 2013 was the first time both the yankees and red sox missed the playoffs in the same season in 20+ years. The Orioles window of opportunity is to win now and they didn't take advantage of that in the last couple of off-seasons. For example, they have needed a legit leadoff hitter for about 6 years now. De Aza isn't that guy.

Or they get the 2013 versions of Cruz and Miller, only signed to big contracts. Just as a reminder, Cruz and Miller were worth a grand total of 4.5 wins from 2011-13 combined. Or less than one win per player per year. Hardly sounds like a lock to carry a team to the postseason to me.

I'm not big on the saber metrics/WAR stuff. I am not suggesting that Cruz and Miller were necessarily the answers, but the problem is that the Orioles didn't bring in any new players that are going to improve the team. The fact of the matter is that the Orioles traded a good prospect to a division rival for a 2 months rental. Just

Cruz and Miller wasn't on the team in 2012, and they made the playoffs.

Don't count this team out, so early in the season.

So they shouldn't try to get better?

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree

I agree. The AL East is vulnerable and 2013 was the first time both the yankees and red sox missed the playoffs in the same season in 20+ years. The Orioles window of opportunity is to win now and they didn't take advantage of that in the last couple of off-seasons. For example, they have needed a legit leadoff hitter for about 6 years now. De Aza isn't that guy.

I'm not big on the saber metrics/WAR stuff. I am not suggesting that Cruz and Miller were necessarily the answers, but the problem is that the Orioles didn't bring in any new players that are going to improve the team. The fact of the matter is that the Orioles traded a good prospect to a division rival for a 2 months rental. Just

So they shouldn't try to get better?

My issue is that they were going to decline if they brought Miller and Cruz back. You'd be investing in declining players. That's nearly certain.

[Herman]

People are perfectly fine spending money. What we have a problem with it this attitude that the Orioles budget is really about $50M/year more than whatever the payroll currently is. It's kind of a reverse tax argument. You ask someone what the "right" level of taxation is and it's always something like "oh, about 2/3rds what I pay now" no matter what they pay now is.

The window of opportunity to win a championship is now. Keep Cruz and Miller and the O's go into this season as legit contenders. Instead they are not better or worse than any other team in the AL East. This off season was a lost opportunity for the O's. They didn't even have to add anyone. Just keep the current team intact. Oh well.

Or they get the 2013 versions of Cruz and Miller, only signed to big contracts. Just as a reminder, Cruz and Miller were worth a grand total of 4.5 wins from 2011-13 combined. Or less than one win per player per year. Hardly sounds like a lock to carry a team to the postseason to me.

My issue is that they were going to decline if they brought Miller and Cruz back. You'd be investing in declining players. That's nearly certain.

I agree. It would have been a mistake to sign Cruz to a 4 year contract and b/c of the Orioles imaginary budget it wouldn't make sense to invest so much money in a reliever like Miller.

[PA724_Oriole]

We'll see how he looks by the end of his 4 year deal.

Also, that defense.....

This is the only defense the Os and anyone who agreed with them over not resigning him and it's pathetic!

Let's see how good the Os are in four years.

Let's see where Wieters and Davis are in four years.

Alex Rodriguez is 39 and missed all of last year and is still playing decent. How do you know Cruz won't be good in 4 years?

How bad he "could" be in four years is not a good excuse as to why he's not here this year.

[MemorialStadKid]

And here is a example 1718 why you are a troll. No one on this board is making the argument to only spend money on arbitration.

What are you TALKING ABOUT?!?!?!!?!?

More often than not, one of the most prominent anti-signing-free-agent arguments (besides the obligatory "we're a small market" or using some calculus formula to devalue the signing) is that we need to save the money for arbitration and/or resigning potential free agents currently on the squad.

The logic goes, we shouldn't spend the money now on a known value because we'll need the money to resign players we currently have at the end of their deals.

Are we really going to open the books on Davis and Wieters? Would either be better than having kept Cruz?

MSK

[Herman]

This is the only defense the Os and anyone who agreed with them over not resigning him and it's pathetic!

Let's see how good the Os are in four years.

Let's see where Wieters and Davis are in four years.

Alex Rodriguez is 39 and missed all of last year and is still playing decent. How do you know Cruz won't be good in 4 years?

How bad he "could" be in four years is not a good excuse as to why he's not here this year.

I doubt that Wieters or Davis will be on the team after this year. Davis is a rally-killing liability and Wieters is not worth what his agent, Scott Boras, thinks he is.

[MemorialStadKid]

This is the only defense the Os and anyone who agreed with them over not resigning him and it's pathetic!

Let's see how good the Os are in four years.

Let's see where Wieters and Davis are in four years.

Alex Rodriguez is 39 and missed all of last year and is still playing decent. How do you know Cruz won't be good in 4 years?

How bad he "could" be in four years is not a good excuse as to why he's not here this year.

The flapjack crew can't use their eyes when accessing a player. It's all about the saber formulas. Cruz is hitting home runs. Davis isn't.

But there's a formula for that somewhere.

MSK

[El Gordo]

This is the only defense the Os and anyone who agreed with them over not resigning him and it's pathetic!

Let's see how good the Os are in four years.

Let's see where Wieters and Davis are in four years.

Alex Rodriguez is 39 and missed all of last year and is still playing decent. How do you know Cruz won't be good in 4 years?

How bad he "could" be in four years is not a good excuse as to why he's not here this year.

Of course you don't "know" for sure. Anything is possible. He could become Big Pappi II. But even BOS didn't want to go more than 2 years for Pappi when he was 35. Cruz' history of injury, his poor fielding, and the general tendency for players of his age to steadily decline, make a 4 year deal a bad bet.

[Crazysilver03]

What are you TALKING ABOUT?!?!?!!?!?

More often than not, one of the most prominent anti-signing-free-agent arguments (besides the obligatory "we're a small market" or using some calculus formula to devalue the signing) is that we need to save the money for arbitration and/or resigning potential free agents currently on the squad.

The logic goes, we shouldn't spend the money now on a known value because we'll need the money to resign players we currently have at the end of their deals.

Are we really going to open the books on Davis and Wieters? Would either be better than having kept Cruz?

MSK

You must have missed the point where you said that that "crowd" says to only spend money on arbitration.

You keep living in a world where there is no budget. Unfortunately, one of the tradeoffs of having a playoff contender is that the guys on this team are good and cost a lot in arbitration. That is definitely something that needs to be budgeted for.

Sure, the team could have nontendered Davis, Wieters, Hunter, and Matusz. And resigned Miller, Cruz, and Markakis. And that person would look smart after 10 games.

But the team rolled the nice with Davis and so far it doesn't look to pay off. Same with Wieters.

[Frobby]

This is the only defense the Os and anyone who agreed with them over not resigning him and it's pathetic!

Let's see how good the Os are in four years.

Let's see where Wieters and Davis are in four years.

Alex Rodriguez is 39 and missed all of last year and is still playing decent. How do you know Cruz won't be good in 4 years?

How bad he "could" be in four years is not a good excuse as to why he's not here this year.

Sure it is. You have to make reasonable judgments about how good he'll be in four years, recognizing that players always can overperform or underperform expectations. One thing we know for certain is that players tend to decline with age. There are some pretty good models out there that estimate the expected dropoff.

About 70% of the players who are age 35 this season will be out of the league by the time they are 38. Cruz might be good enough to be within the 30% still playing, but chances are quite high that he will be nowhere near as good a player by then.

[Crazysilver03]

This is the only defense the Os and anyone who agreed with them over not resigning him and it's pathetic!

Let's see how good the Os are in four years.

Let's see where Wieters and Davis are in four years.

Alex Rodriguez is 39 and missed all of last year and is still playing decent. How do you know Cruz won't be good in 4 years?

How bad he "could" be in four years is not a good excuse as to why he's not here this year.

So you are citing one of the best players of our generation, who had a year off, as an example of a 39 year old playing above average. Think there is a small chance he is just an outlier?

[mdbdotcom]

We should trade for ARod.