Adam Jones chances to make the Hall of Fame.

[OriolesMagic83]

I think Adam Jones is like Bernie Williams with fewer walks. Bernie Williams was at his peak when the Yankees were winnng 4 WS in 5 years. He won multiple gold gloves and was a charismatic leader of the Yankees.

I thought he was more of a leader in those early years than Jeter.

I don't think Williams was even considered for the HOF by most voters. He only got 9.6% of the vote his first year and fell off the ballot after the 2nd year.

Jones would have to be just hitting his peak and put up at least 2 MVP type years and probably win an MVP to be considered. I'm talking .300/40 HR/120 RBI w/ another gold glove. His other way into the Hall would be hitting milestones like 500 HR or 3000 hits. Either path seems a long shot, but I'll enjoy watching him play.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think Williams was even considered for the HOF by most voters. He only got 9.6% of the vote his first year and fell off the ballot after the 2nd year.

There's this persistent myth that the Hall has a Yankee bias. But if you squint hard enough Williams is similar in value to Jim Rice but got almost no HOF support. Williams isn't a great HOF candidate, but he is in the grey area where legends and stories and buddies on the Vet's Committee have resulted in occasional enshrinement.

[Camden_yardbird]

I wonder what Buck would say? Adam keeps himself in exceptional shape and by Buck's admission works harder than any player who has ever played for him.

Jones also threw me my first foul ball at Fenway this weekend. Only took 32 years exactly, so I am rooting for him. Thanks Adam.

[Frobby]

I think Adam Jones is like Bernie Williams with fewer walks. Bernie Williams was at his peak when the Yankees were winnng 4 WS in 5 years. He won multiple gold gloves and was a charismatic leader of the Yankees.

I thought he was more of a leader in those early years than Jeter.

I don't think Williams was even considered for the HOF by most voters. He only got 9.6% of the vote his first year and fell off the ballot after the 2nd year.

Jones would have to be just hitting his peak and put up at least 2 MVP type years and probably win an MVP to be considered. I'm talking .300/40 HR/120 RBI w/ another gold glove. His other way into the Hall would be hitting milestones like 500 HR or 3000 hits. Either path seems a long shot, but I'll enjoy watching him play.

This is a decent analogy. Williams had a career OPS+ of 125, Jones is at 111. Jones will have to take his game up one more level for several years to be a HOF candidate, I think.

[Camden_yardbird]

There are a lot of interesting cases among his contemporaries at the top of the OF position. If you eliminate players in the league for less than 4 years (Trout, Cutch)

Bautista? Started hitting at a much older age.

Ellsbury? Often the second best in every outfield he's been in.

Braun? Doubtful

Halliday? Coors bias?

Kemp? Inconsistent

Cargo? Too many injuries

I think if he remains consistent that will be a huge mark in his favor when comparing him to his contemporaries.

[DrungoHazewood]

There are a lot of interesting cases among his contemporaries at the top of the OF position. If you eliminate players in the league for less than 4 years (Trout, Cutch)

Bautista? Started hitting at a much older age.

Ellsbury? Often the second best in every outfield he's been in.

Braun? Doubtful

Halliday? Coors bias?

Kemp? Inconsistent

Cargo? Too many injuries

I think if he remains consistent that will be a huge mark in his favor when comparing him to his contemporaries.

You never quite know what the BBWAA will do when faced with a challenge, but I'd hope they're smart enough to not induct a bunch of guys on Bernie Williams/Jim Rice level because it was a weak era for outfielders. That's the Jack Morris argument ("Arguably the best starter who pitched all the years from 1980-89!").

[El Gordo]

It would seem that 50 fWAR would be about the threshold for HOF CF With some strong prime years AJ could reach that if he plays another 10 years.

[Frobby]

There are a lot of interesting cases among his contemporaries at the top of the OF position. If you eliminate players in the league for less than 4 years (Trout, Cutch)

Bautista? Started hitting at a much older age.

Ellsbury? Often the second best in every outfield he's been in.

Braun? Doubtful

Halliday? Coors bias?Kemp? Inconsistent

Cargo? Too many injuries

I think if he remains consistent that will be a huge mark in his favor when comparing him to his contemporaries.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the players whose stats were inflated by Coors. Todd Helton's numbers look pretty great (.316/.414/.539) until you take the Coors effect into account. He's eligible for the Hall in 2019. My guess is he falls short of the HOF because his counting stats (2519 hits, 369 homers, 1406 RBI) aren't that overwhelming.

[DrungoHazewood]

It would seem that 50 fWAR would be about the threshold for HOF CF With some strong prime years AJ could reach that if he plays another 10 years.

I think that's the very low end of the gray area. There are only five HOFers with 1000+ games in CF with an rWAR < 50.0, four of them questionable VC selections. But quite a few non-HOFers in that same range. Obviously a few of the players below will eventually go in.

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Rk               Player WAR/pos From   To   Age    G    PA   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB IBB   SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB  CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS         Pos                                          Tm1           Ken Griffey    83.6 1989 2010 19-40 2671 11304 9801 1662 2781 524  38 630 1836 1312 246 1779  81   8 102 199 184  69 .284 .370 .538 .907    *89DH/73                                 SEA-CIN-CHW2          Kenny Lofton    68.2 1991 2007 24-40 2103  9235 8120 1528 2428 383 116 130  781  945  43 1016  32  72  65 111 622 160 .299 .372 .423 .794     *8/H7D9 HOU-CLE-ATL-SFG-CHW-PIT-CHC-NYY-PHI-LAD-TEX3        Carlos Beltran    67.5 1998 2015 21-38 2184  9443 8312 1394 2329 473  77 373 1382  974  95 1518  44  18  95 164 311  49 .280 .355 .490 .845    *89D/H73                     KCR-HOU-NYM-SFG-STL-NYY4          Andruw Jones    62.8 1996 2012 19-35 2196  8664 7599 1204 1933 383  36 434 1289  891  69 1748  97   6  71 192 152  59 .254 .337 .486 .823    *89H7D/3                         ATL-LAD-TEX-CHW-NYY5          Willie Davis    60.5 1960 1979 20-39 2429  9822 9174 1217 2561 395 138 182 1053  418  75  977  51  83  96 128 398 131 .279 .311 .412 .723     *8H/97D                     LAD-MON-STL-TEX-SDP-CAL6           Jim Edmonds    60.3 1993 2010 23-40 2011  7980 6858 1251 1949 437  25 393 1199  998  91 1729  49  10  65 122  67  50 .284 .376 .527 .903    *8H/739D                 CAL-ANA-STL-SDP-CHC-MIL-CIN7          Johnny Damon    56.0 1995 2012 21-38 2490 10917 9736 1668 2769 522 109 235 1139 1003  38 1257  50  57  71  93 408 103 .284 .352 .433 .785    *87D9H/3                 KCR-OAK-BOS-NYY-DET-TBR-CLE8              Jim Wynn    55.6 1963 1977 21-35 1920  8011 6653 1105 1665 285  39 291  964 1224  84 1427  27  32  74 117 225 101 .250 .366 .436 .802   *897/HD65                         HOU-LAD-ATL-NYY-MIL9            Chet Lemon    55.5 1975 1990 20-35 1988  7874 6868  973 1875 396  61 215  884  749  46 1024 151  50  54 174  58  76 .273 .355 .442 .797   *89/HD547                                     CHW-DET10          Vada Pinson    54.1 1958 1975 19-36 2470 10402 9645 1365 2757 485 127 256 1169  574  69 1196  54  52  78 164 305 122 .286 .327 .442 .769    *897H/3D                         CIN-STL-CLE-CAL-KCR11         Cesar Cedeno    52.7 1970 1986 19-35 2006  8133 7310 1084 2087 436  60 199  976  664  83  938  56  32  71 167 550 179 .285 .347 .443 .790    *8397H/5                             HOU-CIN-STL-LAD12         Torii Hunter    50.3 1997 2015 21-39 2245  9172 8379 1232 2337 478  39 332 1316  629  51 1642  91   6  67 248 194  94 .279 .334 .464 .798     *89/DH7                                 MIN-LAA-DET13            Fred Lynn    49.9 1974 1990 22-38 1969  7923 6925 1063 1960 388  43 306 1111  857  77 1116  30  25  86 149  72  54 .283 .360 .484 .845     *897H/D                         BOS-CAL-BAL-DET-SDP14          Ellis Burks    49.6 1987 2004 22-39 2000  8177 7232 1253 2107 402  63 352 1206  793  33 1340  60  29  62 171 181  84 .291 .363 .510 .874      *89D7H                         BOS-CHW-COL-SFG-CLE15      Bernie Williams    49.4 1991 2006 22-37 2076  9053 7869 1366 2336 449  55 287 1257 1069  97 1212  39  12  64 223 147  87 .297 .381 .477 .858     *8D/9H7                                         NYY16         Brett Butler    49.4 1981 1997 24-40 2213  9545 8180 1359 2375 277 131  54  578 1129  23  907  38 147  51  62 558 257 .290 .377 .376 .753     *87/H9D                         ATL-CLE-SFG-LAD-NYM17          Devon White    47.0 1985 2001 22-38 1941  8080 7344 1125 1934 378  71 208  846  541  32 1526  87  61  47  98 346  98 .263 .319 .419 .739     *89H/7D                     CAL-TOR-FLA-ARI-LAD-MIL18         Mike Cameron    46.5 1995 2011 22-38 1955  7884 6839 1064 1700 383  59 278  968  867  19 1901  87  31  60 114 297  83 .249 .338 .444 .782     *89/HD7             CHW-CIN-SEA-NYM-SDP-MIL-BOS-FLA19          Dale Murphy    46.2 1976 1993 20-37 2180  9041 7960 1197 2111 350  39 398 1266  986 159 1748  28   6  60 209 161  68 .265 .346 .469 .815     8937/2H                                 ATL-PHI-COL20        Willie Wilson    46.0 1976 1994 20-38 2154  8317 7731 1169 2207 281 147  41  585  425  27 1144  62  64  35  90 668 134 .285 .326 .376 .702     *87H/9D                                 KCR-OAK-CHC

With the full effect of the expansion time bomb there's is just no way I see a guy in the Fred Lynn or Torii Hunter class getting much of any support. I think Jim Edmonds is a longshot at 60. Chet Lemon and Jimmy Wynn got almost no support at 55.