Payton to get majority of starts in LF

[wildcard]

I don't like these statements, but I am simply not going to worry about this stuff too much. Perlozzo can have whatever initial ideas he wants. The facts on the ground are going to determine who plays. He essentially has 10 quasi-full time players for 9 spots. All it takes is one injury to any of Payton, Huff, Gibbons, Mora or Millar and suddenly the healthy guys are playing pretty much every day. And if everyone's healthy but one guy is hitting .220 and the other is hitting .290, the guy who hits better will play more.

I think you missed something.

I agree Sam is talking about a set lineup and that if someone gets hurt, Millar plays, However.......

The team is likely to have several guys suck wind against lefties. Patterson, Gibbons, and Millar - they all stink vs lefties. Gomez may help but Bynum and Bako can't hit lefties.

Right now the bench looks like Millar, Gomez, Bako and Bynum. Then there is this talk on a righthanded hitter. Is Sam thinking of going with 11 pitchers?

That can't last long.

Too unclear at the moment.

[Frobby]

He may hit lefties better this year than he has in the past, but its incredibly unlikely that he'll hit them better than he hits righties. Its also unlikely (also not as unlikely) that he hits lefties well enough to be an everyday player. It'd be much better to platoon him with someone who hits lefties well, like Knott or Dubois. Both of whom will likely hit better against LHP than Millar this season (and Gibbons, Huff and Patterson for that matter).

I think you are going a bit far here. Millar has been a semi-regular for 8 seasons. In 3 of those years he had better splits vs. LHP; in one year he had exactly the same splits (OPS), and in another year he was 5 points worse vs. LHP than RHP. He was over .800 vs. LHP in 6 of those 8 years. Do I think he'll have an .800 OPS vs. LHP this year? No. Is it "incredibly unlikely" that he'll have an .800+ OPS vs. LHP, or that he'll be better vs. LHP than RHP? Hardly.

[tim27]

Having a better chance of occurring.

Neither of those guys has much of a MAJOR LEAGUE track record. I think its premature to pencil them in as having such and such #'s. Again, I'm not defending Perlozzo or Payton, but if the choice is between Payton in lf or Millar/Gibbons/House/Knott/ I don't see why it provokes such furious outrage. That''s all; I'm simply being a devil's advocate.

And for the most part, I agree with you guys. Look at my optimum lineups earlier in this thread: Payton aint in left for me.

[Leitch]

Perlozzo has said that the first 6 guys in the order are going to be pretty much the same from day to day. Is anyone arguing that we should platoon Mora, BRob, and Huff starting opening day? I assume no one is calling for a Fahey/Tejada, Ramon/Bako or Nick/Knott platoon. So the last three guys are going to be played according to day to day match ups. Gibbons/Millar is barely a paltoon at DH. Gibbons/Payton is good in LF if you want to play Jay that much and risk injury. and suffer his defense. CPat/Payton makes a lot of sense and most likely will happen just not immediately. So it seems to me the quetions are who makes the most of 150 AB, Bynum or Knott/Dubois and Bako/House. I don't see these choices as make or break for the season. Personally I think if Sam wants speed and OF defense he might do better with Yan than Bynum. Knott's and Dubois' defense is questionable as is Huff's at any position and these are legitamate concerns.

While Knott and the Knottettes aren't good defensively, Payton getting in every day in LF forces Huff to 1B, and Gibbons/Millar to fight over DH at bats. 1B and DH are places we can hide Have Bat, Will Travel type defensive liabilities.

[tim27]

I think you are going a bit far here. Millar has been a semi-regular for 8 seasons. In 3 of those years he had better splits vs. LHP; in one year he had exactly the same splits (OPS), and in another year he was 5 points worse vs. LHP than RHP. He was over .800 vs. LHP in 6 of those 8 years. Do I think he'll have an .800 OPS vs. LHP this year? No. Is it "incredibly unlikely" that he'll have an .800+ OPS vs. LHP, or that he'll be better vs. LHP than RHP? Hardly.

Thank you, sir.

[Leitch]

Neither of those guys has much of a MAJOR LEAGUE track record. I think its premature to pencil them in as having such and such #'s. Again, I'm not defending Perlozzo or Payton, but if the choice is between Payton in lf or Millar/Gibbons/House/Knott/ I don't see why it provokes such furious outrage. That''s all; I'm simply being a devil's advocate.

And for the most part, I agree with you guys. Look at my optimum lineups earlier in this thread: Payton aint in left for me.

Minor league statistics predict Major League production as well as Major League statistics.

The Choice isn't necessarily between Payton and Knott in left, it's between Payton on the bench and Knott in the lineup.

[tim27]

Minor league statistics predict Major League production as well as Major League statistics.

I don't doubt that they are able to project, but it's simply illogical to claim they can project as well as major league #s. Any projection system that has more luck w minor leaguers than major leaguers I would label suspect.

The Choice isn't necessarily between Payton and Knott in left, it's between Payton on the bench and Knott in the lineup

And where does he play? And when?

For me, he dhs vs lh. And Payton gets more abs.

[Sports Guy]

And where does he play? And when?

For me, he dhs vs lh. And Payton gets more abs.

Payton should play CF for 85-90% of the games versus lefties. He should also play LF in the other 10-15% of the games, against lefties, in LF.

And yes, he can play the occassional game versus righties...All in all, between that and pinch hitting, he should get 300-350 ab's and that's it.

[Hank Scorpio]

I don't doubt that they are able to project, but it's simply illogical to claim they can project as well as major league #s. Any projection system that has more luck w minor leaguers than major leaguers I would label suspect.

And where does he play? And when?

For me, he dhs vs lh. And Payton gets more abs.

Uh oh...

Batten down the saber-hatches!!!

[tim27]

Payton should play CF for 85-90% of the games versus lefties. He should also play LF in the other 10-15% of the games, against lefties, in LF.

And yes, he can play the occassional game versus righties...All in all, between that and pinch hitting, he should get 300-350 ab's and that's it.

I agree with this 100%.

That's exactly how I'd use him.

[Leitch]

I don't doubt that they are able to project, but it's simply illogical to claim they can project as well as major league #s. Any projection system that has more luck w minor leaguers than major leaguers I would label suspect.

And where does he play? And when?

For me, he dhs vs lh. And Payton gets more abs.

1B, DH, who cares? He'll play in the batters box, hurting lefties who dare to throw him a strike. Payton should get his time subbing for Corey, who looks like Mario Mendoza against lefties.

It's not illogical. All you have to do is make the adjustments. Just because AAA isn't as good as the Major Leagues doesn't mean that his skills simply can't be expected to translate whatsoever. Given the chance, he could be one of a handful of Orioles to actually have an MLVr that's a positive number.

[tim27]

Uh oh...

Batten down the saber-hatches!!!

:002_shappy: :002_shappy: :002_shappy:

[JTrea81]

Somebody needs to explain to Perlozzo what OPS means and then he needs to take a look at Payton's stats vs. RHP last year.

.718 OPS!!!!

I wish we could can Perlozzo and keep Mazzone, I really wish we could. Payton is not a full time player. Why is it that this organization continues to sign these kinds of players? LF has been a black hole since BJ Surhoff left the first time, and yet they refuse to address it. How about trading some of our pitching that we've stockpiled to get a young LFer like Hairston or Baldelli? Jay Payton does not play LF on a full time basis on a contending team. He just doesn't.

[Leitch]

Uh oh...

Batten down the saber-hatches!!!

Can we get some Drungo in the house?

[tim27]

It's not illogical. All you have to do is make the adjustments. Just because AAA isn't as good as the Major Leagues doesn't mean that his skills simply can't be expected to translate whatsoever. Given the chance, he could be one of a handful of Orioles to actually have an MLVr that's a positive number.

Like I said, they certainly are projectable. They simply aren't as reliable as actual major league #s, that's all.