A Reason Not to Extend an Outfielder with Marginal Power

[weams]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/24/back-injury-sends-christian-yelich-to-the-disabled-list/

Off to a slow start by hitting .200 with zero homers and a .488 OPS through 11 games. He?s had back issues since last week.

[Rene88]

Fair enough, but Nick Markakis could easily end up with 2,500 hits in his lifetime if he is healthy.

I agree the price was higher than everyone expected, but let's not throw Nick under the bus because he got a good contract. I would love to have him back in a heartbeat over Snider.

[mdbdotcom]

So, we shouldn't offer David Lough 6/90?

[Rene88]

So, we shouldn't offer David Lough 6/90?

Don't get me started...

The guy is Willie Mays Hays..hit the ball on the ground DUDE!

[Mayor McCheese]

Extension? Didn't they just buyout all of the arb years and maybe 1 year of FA @ 7/$49MM.

Sounds like a smart move for a young talented OF'er, who they are willing to commit to. His AVV over the first 4 years is barely over $3MM/year.

I don't think any of our OF'ers fit this situation.

[weams]

Extension? Didn't they just buyout all of the arb years and maybe 1 year of FA @ 7/$49MM.

Sounds like a smart move for a young talented OF'er, who they are willing to commit to. His AVV over the first 4 years is barely over $3MM/year.

I don't think any of our OF'ers fit this situation.

I thought it was a very healthy deal.

[Frobby]

I don't understand what "marginal power" has to do with Yelich going on the DL. And I'm not sure what a stay on the DL for a back strain has to do with a decision to sign a 23 year old player for 7 years. Do you think the Marlins thought he would never have an injury during that 7-year period? I don't see anything in the article that makes this sound like a serious injury.

[weams]

I don't understand what "marginal power" has to do with Yelich going on the DL. And I'm not sure what a stay on the DL for a back strain has to do with a decision to sign a 23 year old player for 7 years. Do you think the Marlins thought he would never have an injury during that 7-year period? I don't see anything in the article that makes this sound like a serious injury.

Actually I was not even thinking about Nick here. I just assumed that early back injuries could be indicative of issues. And a reason not to jump into a deal like that so early.

[DrungoHazewood]

Fair enough, but Nick Markakis could easily end up with 2,500 hits in his lifetime if he is healthy.

I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. Bill Buckner ended up with 2715 hits but was exactly an average hitter over his career and from age 31-on he was worth 3.0 wins in 10 years. There have been 10 players in history who got 2400+ hits yet were average hitters or worse.

[Frobby]

Actually I was not even thinking about Nick here. I just assumed that early back injuries could be indicative of issues. And a reason not to jump into a deal like that so early.

Who said anything about Nick? But I don't understand the link between Yelich being an outfielder with little power and his back injury. Don't sign an outfielder with little power to a long term deal because he might injure his back? Was Yelich more likely to sustain an injury than some infielder with good power? Or were you just using "outfielder with no power" as an example of a player who isn't really a star so not worth signing to a long term deal and taking the risk that he'll get hurt and not perform as expected during the contract?

[weams]

Who said anything about Nick? But I don't understand the link between Yelich being an outfielder with little power and his back injury. Don't sign an outfielder with little power to a long term deal because he might injure his back? Was Yelich more likely to sustain an injury than some infielder with good power? Or were you just using "outfielder with no power" as an example of a player who isn't really a star so not worth signing to a long term deal and taking the risk that he'll get hurt and not perform as expected during the contract?

The guy earlier in the thread was talking about Nick and 2500 hits. I just felt that the Marlins had acted a bit soon on Yelich. That was my thinking. Mostly the latter.

[weams]

The idea to me is that you extend generational prospects, like a Manny, if you can. No others.

[DrungoHazewood]

The idea to me is that you extend generational prospects, like a Manny, if you can. No others.

I think you should extend anyone who is likely to be worth more in his arb/early free agency years than he'll probably get if he reasonably develops. For a team like the O's they would probably be well served to save $3M, $5M, etc a year even on average or slightly better players as they start to get expensive. Someone like Schoop might jump at a deal that pays him $30M over the next six years. If he ends up as an average player that's okay, if he really develops its a steal.

[weams]

I think you should extend anyone who is likely to be worth more in his arb/early free agency years than he'll probably get if he reasonably develops. For a team like the O's they would probably be well served to save $3M, $5M, etc a year even on average or slightly better players as they start to get expensive. Someone like Schoop might jump at a deal that pays him $30M over the next six years. If he ends up as an average player that's okay, if he really develops its a steal.

Ok. I think that that type of commitment is really a big deal for the ones that flame out for a small to mid market team. Difference of opinion.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ok. I think that that type of commitment is really a big deal for the ones that flame out for a small to mid market team. Difference of opinion.

The Indians of the 1990s were built on deals like that, and they were so small market that they had a movie made about it.