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Bill James: Starting Rotations April 30


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This is a take-it-for-what-it-is-worth exercise. I went down the list of starting pitchers (the list as of April 30, 2015) and entered the #1 pitcher (Kershaw) in the slot for the Dodgers, S1, the #2 starting pitcher, Felix, in the slot for S1, Seattle, etc. I made no exceptions for pitchers who are on the DL, known to be going on the DL, etc.; Wainwright is listed as the Cardinals? S1 because that?s what the list shows. Wainwright will begin to fade very rapidly in the rankings; all inactive pitchers will. Obviously this was a debatable choice, and if you wanted to do this for some sort of predictive purpose, you might want to substitute a "300" for Wainwright.


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Deep depth.

I haven't seen James's rankings before, but they seem super-generous to Norris, starting him as #35 in baseball, and only dropping him to #64 so far.

Generous to all the Orioles too - since these are MLB-wide rankings.

Jimenez #45 overall, Chen #44 overall, Gonzalez #37 overall, Tillman #30 overall.

We worry we have too many #3/#4 starters - these rankings call them all high #2's!

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I found it interesting that he can do a chart like that and then assess the quality of staffs in his article on the basis of whether they have a number one starter. He says none of the staffs in the AL East is strong because none have a pitcher in the top 15. Yet the Orioles are fourth behind Washington, LA Dodgers, and Chicago White Sox in the total rankings. Is that a failure to buy into his own findings?

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Deep depth.

Yeah. Just look at that #5 slot. Only Washington and their ludicrous lineup come close. It's always good to be reminded that an advantage at the back of the rotation is just as good as at the top.

But yeah, these rankings seem strange. Anyone have any more info on how these numbers are calculated?

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