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Fangraphs: Quality of Contact


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Another reason the numbers might not line up is because quality of contact is based on the type of batted ball, so a hard fly ball is defined as hard relative to other fly balls and not all batted balls in general. In other words, when looking at some of these correlations, it?s possible we just didn't get granular enough with the numbers to get the results we were expecting.

I don?t think we know enough to really say why the year-to-year correlation for Hard% isn?t very high or why it doesn't predict BABIP better than it does, but I also think looking correlations for these kinds of statistics leaves a lot of ground uncovered. In essence, because batted balls are classified into one of three categories, a simple correlation isn't the right methodology for seeing how these numbers relate to other stats or to themselves in the future. Realistically, you want to run a multivariate regression because a 15-50-35 soft-medium-hard profile is very different from a 25-40-35 profile even though the Hard% is exactly the same.

But the problem with running multivariate regressions is that they're not very accessible. The science is better than what I'm going to show you, but the learning curve is much flatter for the data I'm going to present and will likely be almost as useful to the average reader. Keep in mind that we're dealing with some shortcuts here and that I'm averaging out some relationships that might not be as simple as they look.

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I have been posting for years that the BABIP stats do not tell a whole or sufficient story and that quality of contact and related issues are not appropriately flushed out at this time. I think there is a lot of progress recently with studying the mph of baseballs after contact.

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