The O's at 20% of the season gone.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ok. Fair enough. I'm not attuned to scouting at all but my guess is they might have pretty slick analytic and statistical tools available to them these days and can look at some of these things at a much more incremental level than some the larger aggregate and more conventional statistics.

Probably. But it's probably still pretty easy to convince yourself that a dialed-in hot streak is actually a guy worth 3/30. Marcel still works as well as anything publicly available.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Probably. But it's probably still pretty easy to convince yourself that a dialed-in hot streak is actually a guy worth 3/30. Marcel still works as well as anything publicly available.

If we're talking about JP. I don't know. 790 OPS guy seems like a logical/reasonable high end. Maybe he needs to be platooned. Contributes on the base paths with his speed and can play adequate to plus COF or 1B. That's potentially a pretty valuable player at low cost. Lots of things that Marcel probably doesn't take into account that good baseballl minds might.

[wildcard]

I doubt that Buck is trying to figure how Jimmy Paredes is exceeding expectation. Or how long he will do it. Or statistically, mathematically or sabermetrically what will happen next.

He is putting Jimmy in the lineup because he is a hot hitter. He will continue to put him in the lineup as long as he produces. Buck would say that just because Jimmy is doing this it doesn't mean that follows. Our curiosity will be satisfied.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I doubt that Buck is trying to figure how Jimmy Paredes is exceeding expectation. Or how long he will do it. Or statistically, mathematically or sabermetrically what will happen next.

He is putting Jimmy in the lineup because he is a hot hitter. He will continue to put him in the lineup as long as he produces. Buck would say that just because Jimmy is doing this it doesn't mean that follows. Our curiosity will be satisfied.

Buck did not target the acquisition of Jimmy Paredes and he was likely not the ultimate decider that he would be on the team. Buck doesn't need to think a lot about the longer term stuff because it's not his job. Yes, i'm sure he has strong input in the organizatio but Buck is not a king. He has a place.

[wildcard]

Buck did not target the acquisition of Jimmy Paredes and he was likely not the ultimate decider that he would be on the team. Buck doesn't need to think a lot about the longer term stuff because it's not his job. Yes, i'm sure he has strong input in the organizatio but Buck is not a king. He has a place.

Buck is as involved as anyone in how much playing time Paredes gets. And if you think he only thinks short term - think again.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Buck is as involved as anyone in how much playing time Paredes gets. And if you think he only thinks short term - think again.

Read what I said and try to respond to it rather than something I did not say or imply. Almost zero chance Buck had any influence in acquiring and signing Paredes or projecting Paredes abilities. I'd also question his influence in Paredes even making the roster. He's the manager, of course he has near absolute influence on playing time of the players assigned to him. He has far less influence on what players will be assigned to him and how the organization thinks players will project.

So as to your first post that I responded to, while he has input and influence, that stuff:

.. doubt that Buck is trying to figure how Jimmy Paredes is exceeding expectation. Or how long he will do it. Or statistically, mathematically or sabermetrically what will happen next.

is not in his job description.

[El Gordo]

My guess is Buck has PA ear in a way DD doesn't. So if he feels strongly about something, it can happen. I also think he is smart enough not to play that card too often.

[Frobby]

It certainly seems to me that Buck has a lot of input into who is on the 25 man roster. In any event, Dan and Buck do a very good job of presenting a united front on personnel decisions. The only time I recall an open difference of opinion was with Taylor Teagarden's release.

[SeaBird]

The Orioles aren't doing themselves any favors. NY has dropped 4 in a row and are 4-6 in their last 10. Instead of taking advantage and making up ground the Orioles have gone 3-7 in their last 10 and remain in last place 4 games behind. It's not early anymore. They look more and more like a team that could be a .500 or below team.

[Frobby]

The Orioles aren't doing themselves any favors. NY has dropped 4 in a row and are 4-6 in their last 10. Instead of taking advantage and making up ground the Orioles have gone 3-7 in their last 10 and remain in last place 4 games behind. It's not early anymore. They look more and more like a team that could be a .500 or below team.

The team certainly hasn't been in sync. The offense was excellent in April but the pitching was bad. The pitching has been good in May but now the offense is in a slump. The defense has been inconsistent all year and there have been a lot of mental mistakes both offensively and defensively. There is still time for the team to get its act together, but there's only so long you can go before worrying that this team just won't snap out of it.

[wildcard]

The team certainly hasn't been in sync. The offense was excellent in April but the pitching was bad. The pitching has been good in May but now the offense is in a slump. The defense has been inconsistent all year and there have been a lot of mental mistakes both offensively and defensively. There is still time for the team to get its act together, but there's only so long you can go before worrying that this team just won't snap out of it.

When I look at who is not performing I have to think at Tillman will snap out of it. He has been too good for too long for this to last.

Norris may be overtaken by Gausman after Gausman gets a few starts at AAA.

Buck's corner outfield rotation is not working. He is going to have to pick two guys and go with them. Hope they come out for it. Or at least go to a platoon approach. Looks like the corner outfield spots are the most likely for a July acquisition.

[Nevermore]

How would you tell a change in talent from random variation?

You graph specific events during a period of time. See if there is any sort of tendency, a curve. If the variation is truly random with no tendency at all, then changes cannot be measured at this time.