Former Key Orioles Faring Well In 2015

[saltman241]

O's fans have to know their team.

I have been rooting for the O's for over 50 years. I know who they are and who they aren't. I did not expect them to sign 34 year old Cruz to a 4 year contract. I didn't expect them to sign Miller to 4 year deal. And when Nick needed neck surgery I didn't expect them to sign him to a 4 year deal. Know your team. That is not the Orioles. If that is what you want find another team to root for.

The O's currently payroll is 115M for this year. That is the highest it has ever been. And if the O's had added another 10-15m the owner was not paying for it. You were. Higher ticket price and MASN rates was the only way the O's do that.

If Cruz is signed, Paredes probably never gets the chance he currently is getting.

I think O's fans need to understand who they are rooting for and the way their team builds it team.

I fully expect the O's to add another 5m to the team payroll at the trade deadline. That is the way the O's build.

And with this one post all my faith in this message board is restored.

All points awarded to wildcard.

[Frobby]

I know Cruz just hit a three run homer, and is on the cusp of leading for the triple crown, but his APL rating clearly show that come June 1st he is going to be in a hitting slump, his IBS ratings show he will hit only 1 home run in July, and his IUP data indicate that on the 4th year of his contract he will be out of baseball. I love the Angelos apologists that keep telling us we don?t miss Cruz. Clearly I don?t understand the ?salary structure? of this organization. All I can say to the stat geeks and apologists is do you really think we are better team without Cruz?

Talk about mischaracterizing the opposing point of view! There is probably not one person on this website who would argue that we don't miss Cruz this year (even though overall, our offense has been pretty good without him, despite the recent hitting slump). It's all about how Cruz is likely to be hitting in the last two years of his deal. Maybe he'll beat the odds and be fine, but the odds are against that. And some of us aren't willing to pay $14.5 mm for a player who might be worth $20 mm right now, when we'll still be paying him $14.5 mm at a time when he's likely to be worth $0.

[Frobby]

If I knew Cruz would be doing what he's doing now, I would have happily chanced the 4th year on him. I expected a 30 homer, .800 OPS type of year at best. What's he's doing right now is Bonds ish. Interesting.

Yeah, I'd agree with that, and with the expectations you had for him. Last November or December, we had no reason to expect Cruz would get off to this crazy-hot start, which is way beyond even what he did in the early part of last year for us:

2015 (first 38 games): .347/.404/.714, 16 HR, 33 RBI

2014 (first 38 games): .275/.341/.564, 12 HR, 35 RBI

Cruz did cool off quite a lot after his hot start last year, and we will see what happens this year, but he certainly has a nice head start on possibly having his best season.

As to the "interesting" fact that his performance has been "Bonds ish," I'll find it more "interesting" if he performs this way all season.

[Fan4Life]

Can't believe I'm saying this but so far, it looks like the Orioles made a mistake not re-signing Nick Markakis. OBP almost .400. Then again like the article says, he hasn't hit like this since 2008. Maybe he needed to get out of Camden Yards?

Nick Markakis .298 .389 .340 4 yr/$44M

Travis Snider .268 .341 .366 1 yr/$2.1M

Not sure we're losing on this deal just yet.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah, I'd agree with that, and with the expectations you had for him. Last November or December, we had no reason to expect Cruz would get off to this crazy-hot start, which is way beyond even what he did in the early part of last year for us:

2015 (first 38 games): .347/.404/.714, 16 HR, 33 RBI

2014 (first 38 games): .275/.341/.564, 12 HR, 35 RBI

Cruz did cool off quite a lot after his hot start last year, and we will see what happens this year, but he certainly has a nice head start on possibly having his best season.

As to the "interesting" fact that his performance has been "Bonds ish," I'll find it more "interesting" if he performs this way all season.

bb-ref doesn't make it real easy to do this (and it doesn't work here at work) but I'd be really interested in how often guys in their mid-30s have stretches of a month or two where they're OPSing well over 1.000. I'm sure guys like Mays and Aaron and Ruth did this with some regularity, but that was their established level. As for longer, season-long stretches... prior to the 1995-2010 period you just didn't find players who established a level of pretty good hitter in their 20s who then hit like a HOFer in their mid-30s. Maybe a very small handful of weird counter-examples, but it was exceptionally rare.

[DrungoHazewood]

Nick Markakis .298 .389 .340 4 yr/$44M

Travis Snider .268 .341 .366 1 yr/$2.1M

Not sure we're losing on this deal just yet.

Certainly not yet. While I'll guess Nick won't go all year with no triples or homers, it also seems unlikely that he'll have one of his best OBPs of his career while exhibiting almost no power. There's not much reason for a pitcher to avoid him.

[weams]

bb-ref doesn't make it real easy to do this (and it doesn't work here at work) but I'd be really interested in how often guys in their mid-30s have stretches of a month or two where they're OPSing well over 1.000. I'm sure guys like Mays and Aaron and Ruth did this with some regularity, but that was their established level. As for longer, season-long stretches... prior to the 1995-2010 period you just didn't find players who established a level of pretty good hitter in their 20s who then hit like a HOFer in their mid-30s. Maybe a very small handful of weird counter-examples, but it was exceptionally rare.

Luke Scott used to. Mark Reynolds did. I can't think of too many others. Maybe Eric Davis.

[DrungoHazewood]

If I knew Cruz would be doing what he's doing now, I would have happily chanced the 4th year on him. I expected a 30 homer, .800 OPS type of year at best. What's he's doing right now is Bonds ish. Interesting.

I like to think I would have been hesitant to pull the trigger based on a massive change in performance level. It's so far out there you have to kind of look funny at his performance. This is a guy with a career .841 OPS, and hasn't hit .900 since he was 30, five years ago. Now you're going to tell me his new established level is 150, 200+ points higher than that at his age? If he does this all year it will be essentially unprecedented. He's Cy Williams, except Williams had the end of the deadball era when he was 33 as a mitigating factor.

[bobmc]

Certainly not yet. While I'll guess Nick won't go all year with no triples or homers, it also seems unlikely that he'll have one of his best OBPs of his career while exhibiting almost no power. There's not much reason for a pitcher to avoid him.

But he has this "gol-darned knack" to foul off pitcher's pitches.....:clap3:

[DrungoHazewood]

Luke Scott used to. Mark Reynolds did. I can't think of too many others. Maybe Eric Davis.

When Luke Scott was Cruz' age it was 2013, and he was essentially out of baseball. Reynolds was personally hot-streaking the 2012 Yanks when he was 29. Eric Davis had some pretty okay years in his 20s, and if not for injuries and illness would probably be in Cooperstown.

[Frobby]

Luke Scott used to. Mark Reynolds did. I can't think of too many others. Maybe Eric Davis.

Luke Scott was age 30-33 when he played for us. Mark Reynolds was 27-28. So I don't think they meet Drungo's criteria.

Eric Davis, on the other hand, had a 65-game stretch where he hit .338/.398/.680 for us at the age of 36. Harold Baines had a stretch of 58 games where he hit .381/.454/.714 at the age of 40.