The "Poor Hypothesis Theory of Baseball" and rebuilding the O's

[Sports Guy]

Are you guys really falling into the rshack trap again?

[mefogus]

Are you guys really falling into the rshack trap again?

I tried to stop it around post #69... you see how well that worked. The thread has actually *devolved* since then.

-m

[Sports Guy]

I tried to stop it around post #69... you see how well that worked. The thread has actually *devolved* since then.

-m

It is just the same tired argument.

He is basically completely wrong about what people want and he is watching AM do the exact same plan that many of us wanted.

Yet, he thinks AM is the best.

It is just so comical.

[Pickles]

It is just the same tired argument.

He is basically completely wrong about what people want and he is watching AM do the exact same plan that many of us wanted.

Yet, he thinks AM is the best.

It is just so comical.

That's hardly the case. As I seem to remember it he said the rebuilding wouldn't be complete in one year and anyone who thought there would be 6-7 new regulars next year was kidding themselves. At this point there are three new regulars; not exactly a dramativ overhaul so many people wanted.

And btw, isn't he on your ignore? What's comical is the way you can't help yourself from responding to him. It's like jilted lover syndrome.

[Sports Guy]

That's hardly the case. As I seem to remember it he said the rebuilding wouldn't be complete in one year and anyone who thought there would be 6-7 new regulars next year was kidding themselves. At this point there are three new regulars; not exactly a dramativ overhaul so many people wanted

And if BRob is dealt, we will have 4 and maybe 5 new guys.

And if AM had his way, he would have a new third baseman, first baseman and perhaps new catcher...He has shopped Mora, Millar and Ramon and if you choose to believe what has been said to us, you would see he wanted them gone(or still does) during the offseason.

Now, he had to find another team for them and also get back what he wants but at the same time, he still wanted them out of here...So, he wanted an incredibly large overhaul...He also has a lot of new BP guys and perhaps as many as 2 new starters.

So yes, he wanted EXACTLY what everyone wanted....He wanted to decrease payroll, get younger, get deeper, help the farm system and build long term instead of thinking short term. This is what many of us have been calling for years and it hasn't happened...It is now.

[Pickles]

And if BRob is dealt, we will have 4 and maybe 5 new guys.

That's a pretty big IF and honestly, at this point, I don't think it happens.

And if AM had his way, he would have a new third baseman, first baseman and perhaps new catcher...He has shopped Mora, Millar and Ramon and if you choose to believe what has been said to us, you would see he wanted them gone(or still does) during the offseason.

So he told you that or are you just making assumptions? I'd say you're just making assumptions. What has been said to us? I sure don't remember AM coming out and saying he was desperate to move any of those guys. Sure he listened to offers; that's his duty, but the fact is that those guys remain on the roster and in the starting lineup.

Now, he had to find another team for them and also get back what he wants but at the same time, he still wanted them out of here...So, he wanted an incredibly large overhaul...He also has a lot of new BP guys and perhaps as many as 2 new starters.

If he wanted them out of here so bad they'd be gone without exception. He obviously doesn't think its a pressing need to get them off the roster for nothing or he'd be able to do that. So, in essence, he isn't looking at the rebuild as a one year thing and doesn't feel the need to overturn his whole roster in 4 months. Or pretty much exactly what rshack said.

So yes, he wanted EXACTLY what everyone wanted....He wanted to decrease payroll, get younger, get deeper, help the farm system and build long term instead of thinking short term. This is what many of us have been calling for years and it hasn't happened...It is now

.

Well its not as if any of those ideas were patented by the OH. I mean to get cheaper, younger, deeper, and build up the farm is pretty much what teams like Ari and Col and Mil have been doing for 5 years now. It's a shame the O's have waited so long but I fail to see when rshack said that these were bad things and he didn't want them to occur.

A rebuild is under way; it's long overdue. However, its going to take time- a lot longer than some on the board are willing to concede- and in no way was it realistic to expect the O's to have more than 4, on the far outside 5, new regulars for 08. Dems da facts.

[Sports Guy]

That's a pretty big IF and honestly, at this point, I don't think it happens.

Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't...But again, AM wants him gone.

So he told you that or are you just making assumptions?

No, our insiders have told us this plus there has been things in the local and national media.

If he wanted them out of here so bad they'd be gone without exception.

Not true..Maybe he didn't want to eat a lot of salary. Maybe he wasn't being offered anything for them? We know he talked to the Mets about Ramon and Millar was being talked about with Texas. We heard Mora and Phillies rumors as well.

He obviously doesn't think its a pressing need to get them off the roster for nothing or he'd be able to do that. So, in essence, he isn't looking at the rebuild as a one year thing and doesn't feel the need to overturn his whole roster in 4 months. Or pretty much exactly what rshack said.

No one has said you HAVE to turn everyone over. What we have said is do it if you can....Rshack probably wouldn't do it even if he could...AM obviously would.

Well its not as if any of those ideas were patented by the OH. I mean to get cheaper, younger, deeper, and build up the farm is pretty much what teams like Ari and Col and Mil have been doing for 5 years now.

No one said they were...But still, it is happening and it was everyone has called for...Rshack twists what everyone says to fit his own ridiculous purposes and continues to look poor doing it.

A rebuild is under way; it's long overdue. However, its going to take time- a lot longer than some on the board are willing to concede- and in no way was it realistic to expect the O's to have more than 4, on the far outside 5, new regulars for 08. Dems da facts.

Everyone here has said it would take time...Many of us would likely be more willing to eat a lot of salary to move guys like Mora...PA and AM may not want to do this, thus the only difference.

And again, you are also failing to acknowledge the pitching.

So far, we are likely looking at(from the end of the season....not including Loewen in this) 2 new starters and at least 3 new BP arms.

We are going to have a new back up catcher.

Moore is likely going to be our key bench guy and while he was here at the end of the year, he is basically a new player.

New bench, minimum of 5 new arms and at least 3 new starting position players and that number could easily grow to 5 or 6 by OD.

This is massive rebuild whether you or rshack want to acknowledge it.

By next year, we are likely looking at an entirely new IF, catcher and we have already replaced 2/3 of the OF.

[Pickles]

Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't...But again, AM wants him gone.

I guess you say potatoe I say potato. Just because he's listening to offers doesn't mean he "wants" him gone. It's the same thing with Bedard. I'm sure he wanted to keep him but in the long term interest of the franchise it was best to trade him. That hardly means he wants him gone.

No, our insiders have told us this plus there has been things in the local and national media.

I put little stock in anything the insiders say. That's my right. As far as the local and national media go I have read very little about him actively looking to move Mora, Hernandez, or Millar. Again, if he wanted to I'm sure he could find takers but he isn't willing to accept nothing packages.

Not true..Maybe he didn't want to eat a lot of salary. Maybe he wasn't being offered anything for them? We know he talked to the Mets about Ramon and Millar was being talked about with Texas. We heard Mora and Phillies rumors as well.No one has said you HAVE to turn everyone over. What we have said is do it if you can....Rshack probably wouldn't do it even if he could...AM obviously would.

I can't speak for Rshack or AM but I don't think its obvious he would. He's been pretty consistent: If he got offers he though were in the best interest of the franchise he would take them. He obviously hasn't. IMO, he looks at these guys as having value to this team here and now; a sentiment that many on this board don't agree with.

No one said they were...But still, it is happening and it was everyone has called for...Rshack twists what everyone says to fit his own ridiculous purposes and continues to look poor doing it.

I think Rshack adds a lot to this board; he's one of my favorite posters so I don't think he looks poor filling his niche in this little community. You two should really just sleep together and get it over with. This will they or won't they stuff is just eating me up.

Everyone here has said it would take time...Many of us would likely be more willing to eat a lot of salary to move guys like Mora...PA and AM may not want to do this, thus the only difference.

That's a VERY BIG difference, imo. AM thinks these guys have value for this franchise in the here and now, like I said earlier, a lot of posters don't think so and want to move them just to move them; i.e. eating salary and accepting junk packages.

And again, you are also failing to acknowledge the pitching.

So far, we are likely looking at(from the end of the season....not including Loewen in this) 2 new starters and at least 3 new BP arms.

Well, the bullpen should have been turned over becuause it was horrible and our closer and setup guy are out for the season. Whether this team was rebuilding or not the bp would by neccessity be drasticly overhauled.

As far as the sp goes we traded our best one and are probably going to replace him with an inhouse soloution. Or to put it another way, the five guys likely to fill out the rotation this year were all in the orginization last year. I've got to say that isn't that drastic.

We are going to have a new back up catcher.

Is that really important?

Moore is likely going to be our key bench guy and while he was here at the end of the year, he is basically a new player.

He is new and part of AM's overall plan but the bench will probably also include Gibbons, Payton, and Bynum. Again, guys who were all here last year. Not nearly as drastic as many would have hoped for.

New bench, minimum of 5 new arms and at least 3 new starting position players and that number could easily grow to 5 or 6 by OD.

The bench won't be that new. We'll probably have three pitchers on the OD roster who weren't in the orginization last year, and we'll have three new starting position players. It doesn't look like Brob gets traded and even if he did please explain to me how we'll have six new regulars. The way I look at it

we'll have

R Hernandez

Millar

Huff

Roberts

L Hernandez

Mora

Payton

Markakis

Gibbons

Bynum

DC

Guthrie

Trax

Loewen

Burress

Walker

Bradford

Some combo of Hooey, Penn, Olsen

All on the roster come OD. That's like 18 guys who will be on the roster that were in the orginization last year at this time. This isn't earthshaking by any stretch of the imagination.

This is massive rebuild whether you or rshack want to acknowledge it.

What's so massive about 70% of the roster being the same? Neither rshack, to my knowledge, or I have acted like we have some personal investment in the pace at which rebuilding takes place. I'm curious as to why you think you do?

By next year, we are likely looking at an entirely new IF, catcher and we have already replaced 2/3 of the OF.

That's another story entirely but I'd be willing to bet that isn't going to be the case either.

[RShack]

That's hardly the case. As I seem to remember it he said the rebuilding wouldn't be complete in one year and anyone who thought there would be 6-7 new regulars next year was kidding themselves. At this point there are three new regulars; not exactly a dramativ overhaul so many people wanted.

Good memory. Back before any trades happened, SG was saying that the whole dang lineup would/should/could be new guys, except for Nick. I said that was crazy, no decent GM could/would ever do something wacko like that. I said I expected there would be 3 brand new Orioles in the starting lineup. I also said 4 max, but that 3 was what I thought most likely. So far, there are 2: LF and CF. But it's not OD yet, so we'll see. I offered to bet, but he started backpedaling. Now, it's that AM *wants* to do it, that AM really agrees with SG in secret, but that AM hasn't actually done it because of, um, well, gee... I don't think SG ever quite said why AM hasn't done it all in 1 measly winter, even though he claims that AM could do it and that he supposedly really, really wants to ;-)

And btw, isn't he on your ignore? What's comical is the way you can't help yourself from responding to him. It's like jilted lover syndrome.

He said he was putting me in ignore when I asked him how many trades he's ever called correctly. He said nobody was right 100% of the time, and I agreed with that. When I asked him if he had ever been right, even once, or has he been wrong 100% of the time, he had an hissy fit and said he put me on ignore. Hasn't answered a question from me since, even questions that have nothing to do with his batting average. I pretty much forget about it, but he keeps sniping at me in an indirect, backstabbing kind of way, which just reminds me about it. On the other hand, I can't really blame him for hiding out, really. If I was supposedly the big trade expert, but then it came out that I was batting 0-for-54,000, I wouldn't wanna answer questions about it either. Would you?

[Sports Guy]

I guess you say potatoe I say potato. Just because he's listening to offers doesn't mean he "wants" him gone. It's the same thing with Bedard. I'm sure he wanted to keep him but in the long term interest of the franchise it was best to trade him. That hardly means he wants him gone.

Oh please...He has been listening for months...He is still trying to get it done...He definitely wants him gone.

I put little stock in anything the insiders say. That's my right. As far as the local and national media go I have read very little about him actively looking to move Mora, Hernandez, or Millar. Again, if he wanted to I'm sure he could find takers but he isn't willing to accept nothing packages.

Fine...That's foolish but its fine. However, many of us do because of the track record of these guys.

think Rshack adds a lot to this board

Yea....aggravation.

That's a VERY BIG difference, imo. AM thinks these guys have value for this franchise in the here and now, like I said earlier, a lot of posters don't think so and want to move them just to move them; i.e. eating salary and accepting junk packages.

I can see not dumping Ramon or even Millar...Mora doesn't have value to us.

Well, the bullpen should have been turned over becuause it was horrible and our closer and setup guy are out for the season. Whether this team was rebuilding or not the bp would by neccessity be drasticly overhauled.

Doesn't matter...It is still part of a big overhaul and rebuilding of the entire team.

As far as the sp goes we traded our best one and are probably going to replace him with an inhouse soloution. Or to put it another way, the five guys likely to fill out the rotation this year were all in the orginization last year. I've got to say that isn't that drastic.

Well, Patton's injury may make you right on this. However, if we get Gallagher, that could change.

Trax didn't end the year with us.

And yes, maybe a guy like Penn gets in the rotation and was here last year but the FACT is, he is different than someone who ended the year as a starter...Again, part of an overhaul.

Is that really important?

Is this concept over your head? We talked about the need to overhaul the roster...Needing 12-15 new players or so....So yes, it is part of all of that...Big deal in the grand scheme of things? Maybe not...But good teams can/should/do have good benches...The Orioles have had pathetic options at back up catcher in the past.

He is new and part of AM's overall plan but the bench will probably also include Gibbons, Payton, and Bynum. Again, guys who were all here last year. Not nearly as drastic as many would have hoped for.

I think Payton will be gone. Gibbons and Bynum, start season on Dl and suspension list...Tough to tell what their futures are.

The bench won't be that new. We'll probably have three pitchers on the OD roster who weren't in the orginization last year, and we'll have three new starting position players. It doesn't look like Brob gets traded and even if he did please explain to me how we'll have six new regulars

We could have a new SS and second baseman...I also think there is still a chance Millar gets dealt this spring.

[Moose Milligan]

And btw, isn't he on your ignore? What's comical is the way you can't help yourself from responding to him. It's like jilted lover syndrome.

<img src = "http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2006/01/20/brokeback_wideweb__470x299,0.jpg">

"I wish I knew how to quit you...."

[TommyD4207]

And btw, isn't he on your ignore? What's comical is the way you can't help yourself from responding to him. It's like jilted lover syndrome.

Yeah, it really is quite pathetic and also shows a great deal of hypocrisy. He's self-important and arrogant enough to throw out wild theories of many posters being obsessed with him, yet he can't realize his burning fascination with Rshack.

[mefogus]

Yeah, it really is quite pathetic and also shows a great deal of hypocrisy. He's self-important and arrogant enough to throw out wild theories of many posters being obsessed with him, yet he can't realize his burning fascination with Rshack.

Why has this thread persisted?

-m

[Stotle]

RShack,

The total number of players over 30 on a squad has nothing to do with the question of keeping or moving Roberts. 2b decline around 32 -- small players playing a physically demanding position and wearing down -- that is the only age/stat comparison that needs to be made. When I took a look and posted the stats on another board, I seem to recall Lou Whitaker as the exception in that he continued to perform offensively well into his late 30's (and early 40's?). Almost every other all-star 2b fell off dramatically around 32. Roberts will be hitting that "fall-off" right as this contract expires.

Would it make sense to have established 30+ sluggers at 1b/3b/lf/dh? Sure. Does it make sense to give B-Rob another sizeable 3-year deal for bottom of the order offense and diminishing defense? Not so much.

The players over 30 I'd like to have in 2010 include the likes of Teix and Dunn --big bats playing not-so-strenuous positions. I'm a huge Roberts fan, but realistic enough to see that history shows his next contract will likely be a bad one, and BAL should move him now (meaning sometime this year). It would be the best for all parties involved.

[Moose Milligan]

Why has this thread persisted?

-m

<img src = "http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/duty_calls.png">

That's just brilliant...and so true.