My O's glass is half empty again.

[DrungoHazewood]

I doubt that the future of the team has much to do with House, Bako, Knott or Traschsel for that matter.

No, but they're symptomatic of a systemic problem. This organization can't successfully recognize and utilize 2nd-tier talent. Every year they toss two, three, five, six wins because they play Fahey over Terrero, or Karim Garcia over Jack Cust, or because they sign Jeff Conines instead of Calvin Pickerings or Alex Cabreras, or choose to spend $2M or $3M on a $350k Deivi Cruz.

The little things don't mean the difference between 95 wins and 75, but they do mean the team is always giving the opposition a head start.

[Tx Oriole]

I have no problems with the O's signing Huff. He is younger than Millar and can play better than Millar. Huff can go to 3rd, LF and 1st base and also DH. Where as Millar is a sometimes 1st baseman DH. IMO

[DrungoHazewood]

Again, your argument is mixed in my opinion. I'm not advocating Bako. I'm not advocating against House. I'm merely saying that House can't fill the role of primary back up catcher based on what I have seen. Statements about offensive output offsetting defensive liabilities sounds reasonable in a vacuum, but it simply doesn't work that way in reality.

A pitcher can't be afraid to unleash his best off speed pitch whenever there is someone on base because he doesn't trust that it will be blocked if it hits the dirt. That is what will happen if the pitcher doesn't believe the catcher is capable. I've been there and it definitely hurts the pitcher's results much more than the offsetting offensive output of the catcher.

A pitcher can't worry whenever a marginal baserunner gets on first or second to the point that his focus is unnecessarily divided. If everyone with Tejada speed or better becomes a basestealing threat because the catcher's arm is poor (relative to his peers of course), it will negatively affect the pitcher much more than the offsetting offensive output of the catcher.

Perhaps House isn't as poor as he appeared when I watched him in ST. If he is, he shouldn't be our primary back up catcher even if his output becomes Pujols or Bonds level. If that were to happen, we should find him another spot (DH or 1B) where he can't hurt us defensively. FYI, he looked OK at first. Not great, but better than Huff.

I don't believe House is that terrible. Just last year he was the primary catcher for Corpus Christi in the Texas League. They were 2nd in the league in ERA. He caught five of the Astros' top ten prospects. They clearly didn't think he was a joke.

[DrungoHazewood]

Jon,

This sounds like a totally reasonable statement, but it simply doesn't work that way in reality. The runs he allows on passed balls, wild pitches that should be blocked but weren't, extra stolen bases, poor pitch calls, etc... won't accurately reflect the effect of him being the catcher. There will be a multitude of issues that will hide beneath the stats because of his effect on the pitcher.

I think you're exaggerating how much he'd effect things. The Orioles went through most of the 90s with Chris Hoiles behind the plate, and he couldn't throw out my grandmother stealing. They had Geronimo Gil as the starter for a year and he lead the league in passed balls - but Rodrigo, Jason Johnson, Julio, Groom, and Ponson all had good seasons.

If you can get to the high minors as a catcher you have to have some minimal level of ability. I find it hard to accept that JR House got this far in his career despite being so bad pitchers refuse to throw their good stuff for fear it'll overwhelm his shortcomings.

And again, the alternative is Paul Bako. We know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that he'll have a lot of negative attributes that will show up in the numbers.

[Tony-OH]

I think a lot of this stuff will take care of itself.

If Payton doesn't hit righties, expect to see Gibbons or DuBois in left.

If Penn goes to AAA and maintains a 2.26 ERA again with a SO per inning like he did last year, how long do he think Trachsel will be allowed to maintain a 6.00 ERA in the rotation? Not long.

If Huff can't play good defense at first, expect to see Millar there with Huff switching to DH.

I am hearing the pitchers actually like to throw to Bako.

Has the team fixed left and 1B. Doesn't look like it. But we have stop gap players again. We will just have to see what happens.

I think alot depends on what you expect. If you expect 85 wins, you may be smiling. If you are looking for 95 wins and the playoffs, you are not likely to be happy.

How many games do we lose before this stuff "takes care of itself?"

The problem is this is the same trend we've seen year after year from the Orioles. We have a bunch of guys who are redundant to each other but no real strength in an area that can be useful like hitting well against lefties.

I'm a big supporter of the platoon for several reasons. One, it enables the manager to use player's strengths while minimizing their exposure to what they don't do well. Platoon's also give the manager a stronger bench.

It should not have been hard to fill the left-fielder's job with a decent defensive outfielder who can hit right-handed pitching. Instead, it looks like the O's are going to give Payton the majority of the starts out there.

Payton should be getting 250-300 at bats spelling the left fielder and PAtterson in center against lefties.

If the Orioles decide Millar is going to play 1B because he's the best defensively (which should tell you a lot about our defensive 1st baseman), then Gibbons is going to the bench. Realistically, he should be in Right Field with Markakis in left since left is much harder to play in Camden Yards.

We know Nick won't be moved by Perlozzo, so they'll throw Payton out there in left and take his .750 OPS. And to top it off, we'll be told we're upgraded in left because Perlozzo managed to overexpose Fahey out there last year for most of the at bats in the second half of the year. They'll be right, but we'll still have below average production in left field and 1st base, two of the easiest postiion to find production from in major league baseball.

[El Gordo]

Of course, but when you're faced with a choice between tangibles (there is no argument that House is vastly, hugely superior with the bat) and intangibles (Bako is better than House defensively, but it's hard to quantify), I just don't see how you go with hope that the fuzzy, undefinable part works out in your favor.

That's the problem in a nutshell. What is intangible to you because you are unable to quntify it, is self evedent to Vatech who as someone with pitching experience knows the value of of a good defensive catcher when he sees one.

I don't have to see House hit to know he is vastly superior to Bako as a hitter. But I have to watch them both extensively to discern their relative value defensively. It seems to me that defensive merit is inevitably to be agrued on an anacdotal basis because it is too interdependent to measure accaurately. But it is short sighted IMO to dismiss it as intangible.

[Sports Guy]

You could be absolutely correct. Perhaps he had a bad week. Perhaps his arm is sore. Perhaps he just isn't completely comfortable in his new surroundings/with the new pitchers/etc... All I'm saying is that I wasn't happy with what I saw from him as a defensive catcher at all.

His arm was noticeably weaker than any of the other catchers (including Donachie). He had decent footwork on the throw and a fairly quick release, but he would really struggle to throw out a moderately capable runner with a decent jump based on what I saw. He looked quite bad blocking balls in the dirt on several occasions. Hopefully, I just caught him at a bad time, but the Orioles have to judge him primarily based on what he is doing over these six weeks since they have very little track record on the guy. Donachie didn't look great defensively, but he looked much better than House.

I agree with Drungo that you are being too harsh on House.

We have read scouting reports that have varied from average to below average.

You saw him for a few days. While i respect your opinion, i must go with those who have seen alot of him over the years.

As far as his arm strength goes...Make sure you start him versus teams that don't steal bases. That is something Perlozzo can easily map out.

House is just a much better option than Bako is...BTW, i think you are also giving too much credit to Bako.

[El Gordo]

I'm a big supporter of the platoon for several reasons. One, it enables the manager to use player's strengths while minimizing their exposure to what they don't do well. Platoon's also give the manager a stronger bench.

It should not have been hard to fill the left-fielder's job with a decent defensive outfielder who can hit right-handed pitching.

.

A platoon doesn't work opening day against one of the best LHP's becuase Huff and Gibbons who you would ordinarlily bench happen to hit Satana better than any one else. As does Gomez who you might not ordinarly play at 1B over Millar who has never yet hit Satana. I like match ups and considering other factors as well, like Turf vs Grass, Dome, Fly ball pitcher/ defense, etc.

Besides Delucci who would you have liked them to pick up for LF? Someone should ask Duque why they didn't go after him.

[Sports Guy]

How many games do we lose before this stuff "takes care of itself?"

The problem is this is the same trend we've seen year after year from the Orioles. We have a bunch of guys who are redundant to each other but no real strength in an area that can be useful like hitting well against lefties.

I'm a big supporter of the platoon for several reasons. One, it enables the manager to use player's strengths while minimizing their exposure to what they don't do well. Platoon's also give the manager a stronger bench.

It should not have been hard to fill the left-fielder's job with a decent defensive outfielder who can hit right-handed pitching. Instead, it looks like the O's are going to give Payton the majority of the starts out there.

Payton should be getting 250-300 at bats spelling the left fielder and PAtterson in center against lefties.

If the Orioles decide Millar is going to play 1B because he's the best defensively (which should tell you a lot about our defensive 1st baseman), then Gibbons is going to the bench. Realistically, he should be in Right Field with Markakis in left since left is much harder to play in Camden Yards.

We know Nick won't be moved by Perlozzo, so they'll throw Payton out there in left and take his .750 OPS. And to top it off, we'll be told we're upgraded in left because Perlozzo managed to overexpose Fahey out there last year for most of the at bats in the second half of the year. They'll be right, but we'll still have below average production in left field and 1st base, two of the easiest postiion to find production from in major league baseball.

Great post Tony.

[mikezpen]

Tejada, Mora, Gibbons and Patterson aren't hitting well, and that hurts the offense a lot.But given their track record, I'm not worried. I'm much more impressed w/Huff, Markakis, Payton and Dubois hitting so well. Their starting lineup will be fine; I'm not worried about offense from there.I mean, last year this time we were looking at Matos, Conine and Millar as starters-things are a lot better now-a LOT better.

I think the bench w/b better than the worst case NMS spelled out, but not as good as we'd like.Dubois will almost certainly make the team; that's something. Then it's Gomez, Millar and Bako. Not terrible but not really good either.I'm willing to wait to see what happens here before being critical.

Benson going down sucks royally. And having to replace him w/T. sucks even more royally.But I don't see what choice they had. Penn does NOT look ready to step into the rotation, and throwing him to the wolves is probably not going to help him. However this team seems perfrectly willing to dumbly put Trax. out there just because he has a contract. An organization that can think out of the box a little w/give Guthrie at least a chance.Here is where the Orioles continually fail.

I guess what I'm saying here is that things are better, but we'll have to wait and see what the Orioles do in the way of a 25-man roster before predictng any kind of good season from them.

[El Gordo]

Even if you believe that, you have to believe that there was another backup catcher out there who could call a game and hit a little. BTW, you sure are giving Bako a lot of credit.

I looked at the FA C's and none of them impressed me offensively. I'm giving Mazzone credit for knowing what he wants in a good defensive back up C and knowing it's value to his pitching.

[DrungoHazewood]

I understand that I'll never convince you that there are human interaction/faith/confidence effects that occur on baseball teams that escape statistical quantification, but I know they exist and will continue to believe in them. Whether House is that bad or not is a reasonable question, but denying that a terrible defensive catcher can more than offset said catcher's offensive output because stats don't support it is incorrect IMHO.

I don't doubt for one minute that there are human interaction/faith/confidence effects. It would be silly to dismiss them altogether. These are people we're dealing with, after all.

My argument here is simply that House has to be at least minimally competent behind the plate to get where he is, and that I seriously doubt that Bako or Donachie's intangibles are as valuable as House's bat. At least not when their hitting is so, so bad, and this team is going to struggle at times to score runs.

[Tony-OH]

A platoon doesn't work opening day against one of the best LHP's becuase Huff and Gibbons who you would ordinarlily bench happen to hit Satana better than any one else. As does Gomez who you might not ordinarly play at 1B over Millar who has never yet hit Satana. I like match ups and considering other factors as well, like Turf vs Grass, Dome, Fly ball pitcher/ defense, etc.

Besides Delucci who would you have liked them to pick up for LF? Someone should ask Duque why they didn't go after him.

I don't think anyone that favors platoons would suggest matchups don't override the platoon. The platoon is based on matchups so if Huff and Gibbons hit Santana well, then you play them, regardless of the fact they are both left-handed.

[Mad Mark]

Man, this has been a long thread! Lots of interesting detours, too!

That having been said, however, I'm going to take the lazy man's way out, and reserve judgement until the results are in.

Even if the team goes north with 13 pitchers, and none of those 13 are Penn.

Even if I don't get the bench I want.

I have to believe that some percentage (and I don't know what the percentage is) of what winds up in the press is either misinformation, disinformation, or flat-out bulls**t. I simply cannot give credence to all of it.

So, I'm going to sit on the cards I've been dealt for a while, and "see how this plays out".

Now, I'm going to go walk the dogs!

[El Gordo]

I don't think anyone that favors platoons would suggest matchups don't override the platoon. The platoon is based on matchups so if Huff and Gibbons hit Santana well, then you play them, regardless of the fact they are both left-handed.

My guess is we will see a lot of Gibbons in LF. A lot of people are bashing Sam because they believe he will play Payton all the time in LF. I think he will play match ups and consider defense. I think it's semantics, mostly.