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My O's glass is half empty again.


NewMarketSean

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I think catcher is, by far, the hardest defensive position to quantify. And it's not just all the isues vatech1994 mentioned, but also how the game is called. If you think that's unimportant, read Ramon Hernandez's commetns about the difference between preparing for a game at 1B vs. C.

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I honestly don't plan on getting out of "Training Camp," I enjoy the insight from those who know what they are talking about. I just thought I would throw in my 2 cents just like everyone else does. Unfortunately it happened to be thrown at a "Hall of Famer." I know there those that will agree with me, but I dont want to get anyone else blackballed.

I don't think anyone is upset that you disagree with them. But, instead of just disagreeing, it turned more into a personal attack which is where I think people started to get annoyed. I'm pretty sure you're not the first to disagree with NMS, and you probably won't be the last. But, IMO, the way you did it leaves a little to be desired.

On to NMS's statements...

I see where he's coming from 100%. We've sat through 9 pathetic seasons. And, heading into a season where the FO seemed to have things heading in the right direction, we're not hearing the same song and dance. I don't think this season is a lost cause by any means, but I'm not as optimistic as I was earlier in the off-season. I just don't know if this FO/manager are capable of improving a team.

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A platoon doesn't work opening day against one of the best LHP's becuase Huff and Gibbons who you would ordinarlily bench happen to hit Satana better than any one else. As does Gomez who you might not ordinarly play at 1B over Millar who has never yet hit Satana. I like match ups and considering other factors as well, like Turf vs Grass, Dome, Fly ball pitcher/ defense, etc.

Besides Delucci who would you have liked them to pick up for LF? Someone should ask Duque why they didn't go after him.

Doesn't a platoon mean something along the lines of having a group of players who you play in a manner that optimizes performance? I don't think it means RH batter must play against LHP and vice versa. If they hit Santana well, they play against Santana. To properly platoon players properly, you look at the matchups and play the guys with the best chance to succeed...not the players who hit from the opposite side of the plate as the opposing pitcher.

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That's interesting, because Donachie is regarded as a defensive standout with a great arm. He nailed 45% of basestealers last year. Donachies offense it bad, so if he doesn't look so good defensively either the O's are nuts or you saw him on a bad day.

Or he was to busy sizing up his waste. :D

Just kidding vatech.

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My guess is we will see a lot of Gibbons in LF. A lot of people are bashing Sam because they believe he will play Payton all the time in LF. I think he will play match ups and consider defense. I think it's semantics, mostly.

Let's hope you are right.

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I don't understand why they don't just move Markakis to LF, and keep Gibbons in RF. The thought of Gibbons in RF is scary, but the thought of him circling LF is a nightmare.

I gotta feeling due to his inability to stay healthy Gibbons will see most of his PT from the DH position.

That means Millar, Huff, and Payton are left for 1B and LF.

No chance of seeing Millar in LF, and no chance of seeing Payton at 1B.

Therefore Sammy will go with the best defense combo IMO which means Payton would be in LF, and Huff would be at 1B.

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I'm pretty sure Bako is the guy simply because he's familiar with Mazzone. He had a pretty good CERA with the Braves, Cubs and overall but I'm not sure how much you can count on that not being the pitchers by themselves. At least we know he catches good pitchers well. ;)

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I'm pretty sure Bako is the guy simply because he's familiar with Mazzone. He had a pretty good CERA with the Braves, Cubs and overall but I'm not sure how much you can count on that not being the pitchers by themselves. At least we know he catches good pitchers well. ;)

CERA is about as reliable as meth addict.

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How many games do we lose before this stuff "takes care of itself?"

The problem is this is the same trend we've seen year after year from the Orioles. We have a bunch of guys who are redundant to each other but no real strength in an area that can be useful like hitting well against lefties.

I'm a big supporter of the platoon for several reasons. One, it enables the manager to use player's strengths while minimizing their exposure to what they don't do well. Platoon's also give the manager a stronger bench.

It should not have been hard to fill the left-fielder's job with a decent defensive outfielder who can hit right-handed pitching. Instead, it looks like the O's are going to give Payton the majority of the starts out there.

Payton should be getting 250-300 at bats spelling the left fielder and PAtterson in center against lefties.

If the Orioles decide Millar is going to play 1B because he's the best defensively (which should tell you a lot about our defensive 1st baseman), then Gibbons is going to the bench. Realistically, he should be in Right Field with Markakis in left since left is much harder to play in Camden Yards.

We know Nick won't be moved by Perlozzo, so they'll throw Payton out there in left and take his .750 OPS. And to top it off, we'll be told we're upgraded in left because Perlozzo managed to overexpose Fahey out there last year for most of the at bats in the second half of the year. They'll be right, but we'll still have below average production in left field and 1st base, two of the easiest postiion to find production from in major league baseball.

You are asking how fast Sam will pull the trigger and I doubt that any one including Sam himself knows that.

Does Trachsel give you a good game and a stinker and continue that pattern or does he just stink every game. That will make a big difference in how Sam moves.

Is the team losing or winning. Are they hitting? Are they pitching? Defense? Its all depends on the circumstances.

Sam is normally pretty loyal to his veterans but losing does things to a manager's patience. Especially a 2nd year manager who lost 90 games last year. Let's just see what Sam does this year. He could fool us.

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VaTech THANK YOU.

Bako is a defensive sub. He is not there to hit. Hell Duquette has even admitted that. He was there to be a solid defensive replacement, call a good game and work with the young pitching in a system he already knows.

His bat sucks, we get it guys. But Bako obviously has the defensive skills to be the sub we are looking for. If Bako had a bat, he would be a starter, not a back up.

There is a reason why no one considers House a catcher anymore.

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I don't think it means RH batter must play against LHP and vice versa. If they hit Santana well, they play against Santana.

That's true, but I would look at sample size also. How many at-bats does Jay Gibbons have against Santana? We know that batting average and even OPS can fluctuate over a full season, so I wouldn't put much credence into personal matchups that consist of 30 or even 40 at-bats.

For example, Jay Gibbons is 6/12 against Santana with two doubles, a homerun, and 4 K's. Meanwhile, Gibbons' OPS against lefties is much lower over his career, and Johan Santana is downright nasty. If I knew the standard deviation of his performance, I could use a Z test to tell you how likely it is that he would have a 1.417 OPS over 12 at-bats (assuming his career .756 OPS against LHP holds true) by random chance alone. I don't know the exact number, but I can tell you that it is likely a fluke. I would not want Gibbons facing Santana on opening day, even though I know that Perlozzo would probably based a lot off of individual matchups with small sample sizes.

Even without statistics, a lot of it has to do with common sense. If the much-maligned Paul Bako is 2/3 with a HR off of Pedro Martinez, we still wouldn't want him up there in the 9th inning against him. As the number of at bats increases, you can lend more credence to individual matchups.

The misuse of personal matchups is a pet peeve of mine when it comes to roster management.

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That's true, but I would look at sample size also. How many at-bats does Jay Gibbons have against Santana? We know that batting average and even OPS can fluctuate over a full season, so I wouldn't put much credence into personal matchups that consist of 30 or even 40 at-bats.

For example, Jay Gibbons is 6/12 against Santana with two doubles, a homerun, and 4 K's. Meanwhile, Gibbons' OPS against lefties is much lower over his career, and Johan Santana is downright nasty. If I knew the standard deviation of his performance, I could use a Z test to tell you how likely it is that he would have a 1.417 OPS over 12 at-bats (assuming his career .756 OPS against LHP holds true) by random chance alone. I don't know the exact number, but I can tell you that it is likely a fluke. I would not want Gibbons facing Santana on opening day, even though I know that Perlozzo would probably based a lot off of individual matchups with small sample sizes.

Even without statistics, a lot of it has to do with common sense. If the much-maligned Paul Bako is 2/3 with a HR off of Pedro Martinez, we still wouldn't want him up there in the 9th inning against him. As the number of at bats increases, you can lend more credence to individual matchups.

The misuse of personal matchups is a pet peeve of mine when it comes to roster management.

So you woulld play Payton over Gibbons because he is a RH bat, even though he has never gotten a hit of Santana. I think you're taking your numbers to absurdity. Some guys see certain pitchers better than others.

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VaTech THANK YOU.

Bako is a defensive sub. He is not there to hit. Hell Duquette has even admitted that. He was there to be a solid defensive replacement, call a good game and work with the young pitching in a system he already knows.

His bat sucks, we get it guys. But Bako obviously has the defensive skills to be the sub we are looking for. If Bako had a bat, he would be a starter, not a back up.

There is a reason why no one considers House a catcher anymore.

Yeah, but it's one thing to be a backup whose defensive skills are good and weak offensively and its another thing to be a defensive catcher who is just abysmal with the bat.

Maybe we should give Charlie O'Brien a call, see what he's up to. He fits the mold of what the O's like to do with FA pickups. :rolleyes:

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So you woulld play Payton over Gibbons because he is a RH bat, even though he has never gotten a hit of Santana. I think you're taking your numbers to absurdity. Some guys see certain pitchers better than others.

Based on 11-12 at-bats, yes. I will not dispute that some players are probably better against specific pitchers. However, in this case, I don't think you can infer that.

If Tejada is 0/12 in Spring Training, are you worried about him in the regular season? When Brian Roberts started a season 0/21 (or something like that), were you prepared write him off? Do you think that Jason Dubois can keep up a .500+ Avg during a full season? I realize this is sort of a strawman, but the idea is the same. As the number of at-bats increase, you can infer more about personal matchups, but I would be wary of looking at Gibbons' 12 at-bats and Payton's 11 at-bats and trying to infer something.

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