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2015 20th (613) - Adam Walton - SS - U Illinois Champagne


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    • This is something I would always tell weams regarding issues of the day.   He would come right back at me with unrelenting faith in humanity.  He served as a beacon of optimism that I probably won't ever be able to follow (let alone duplicate), mostly because I fear disappointment so much.  But in the moment, he was so much happier than I. 🌷
    • I would love to hear Tony's take on where Gunnar would best be utilized in 2023. My understanding is that he can play a solid MLB level SS but is likely GG level at 3B. Given that Mateo has shown solid defensive chops and provides elite level speed at the bottom of the lineup, why not keep him at SS and have the left side of the infield be rock solid defensively?
    • Phillip's is almost a zero offensively.  Odor is not as bad.  I know he has a .200 average but I always feel like Odor is a threat.
    • No Vavra either. Do not like this lineup.  
    • Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are 2 impending FA starters.  Both are pitching for SD.  Both have had surgery in recent years.  Manaea had shoulder surgery at the end of 2018, which caused him to miss a majority of the 2019 season.  Clevinger has TJ surgery late in 2020.  It was the second time he had TJ surgery, also having it in 2012.  Here is a brief article talking about players having it twice. Manaea is 30 (will be 31 by the start of next season.  He is left handed.  His career ERA is 4.00. Th is year, his ERA is 4.83 and his FIP is 4.40.  His K rate is over 9.  He is missing bats at an above league average rate and despite his BB rate being up, he is throwing strikes at an above league average rate although it is lower than his career rate.  His HR rate is up. Over his career, his xERA, xFIP and FIP seem to be in line with the career 4 ERA.  At this point, if he stays healthy, he is going to throw 160-175 innings and be around league average in ERA.  This year's higher ERA could cause him to be a little cheaper this offseason. Diving deeper into his stat cast numbers, he is a guy who gives up a higher exit velocity than the league average. Launch angles are generally higher than league average. Barrel% and hard hit% is a little higher.  Generally speaking,  none of these numbers are way out of whack but he is generally league average or worse in most advanced and "old school" metrics.   Clevinger will be 32 in December, so he is 2 years older. His BB rate is better than Manaea and is sub 3 for his career.  His K rate is the lowest of his career.  His ERA, in 50 less innings, is around 1.4 runs better than Manaea.  His xERA, XFIP and FIP are all better and have generally been better throughout their careers.  Manaea throws more strikes but in most years, including this one, Clevinger has thrown strikes at an above average rate.  Clevinger misses more bats.  He also gives up fewer homers.  Manaea has been more reliable in terms of IP although Clevinger did have a 200 IP season, something Manaea hasn't done. Clevinger's stat cast data shows him to generally be a guy who is better than league average to right around league average on most things.  His velocity is similar to years past and is better than Manaea although Manaea has the K advantage this year. The health history of both of these guys clouds things.  While Manaea has come back from shoulder surgery (always tough to do), it may be tough to trust that shoulder as he gets into his 30s.  Clevinger has now come back from 2 TJ surgeries and you would think he will be ok now but who knows. Clevinger has been the better pitcher but Manaea is younger, has been a little more reliable an is left handed.   I still prefer Clevinger, as he has been the better pitcher and I think his upside is a little higher. I would not give either of them more than 3 years and honestly would prefer a higher AAV for 2 years.
    • EDIT: Nope, Adley is on the bench for an August game against our primary wildcard and divisional opponent. Let the rage begin in 3, 2, 1... 
    • Adley seems well-liked by his teammates, but I've wondered if there would be any resentment that he tends to get a lot of credit for the team's turnaround, especially from some guys that have been here for a while.  Last night Kremer was asked about him, and while he was very complementary towards Adley, I just kind of got a bit of a "Yeah he's good but other guys are good too" vibe.  He specifically mentioned that he feels great with both Adley and "Robby" back there.  Could have totally been in my head.  
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