PECOTA takes on standings

[erb8472]

It doesn't help when the DRays haven't been able to score all spring training. They have been rumored to be throwing around the idea of sending Cantu and Gomes to the minors for the start of the season.

[Sports Guy]

well that all depends on how many one-run losses we have now doesn't it?

SG. How many years have we heard that now? When are the TB boys finally gonna make good on all the hype they get. Every year is going to be their break out year.

Forgive me for being skepical on that, but the nice home they have made for themselves in the basement year, after year, after year makes me question it.

Yeah it could happen. But anything COULD happen.

SJ, if the Orioles had the young talent that TB had, you would be pounding you first on the table proclaiming how great our offense is going to be.

BTW, the Tampa offense also wasn't getting conttributions out of Upton and especially Young, like they will this year. The Tampa offense also has a healthy Baldelli and Gomes right now as well.

And they have added that Japanese third baseman.

[Sports Guy]

It doesn't help when the DRays haven't been able to score all spring training. They have been rumored to be throwing around the idea of sending Cantu and Gomes to the minors for the start of the season.

If this is true, we should be seeing if we can get Gomes for 20 cents on the dollar.

[Hank Scorpio]

It doesn't help when the DRays haven't been able to score all spring training. They have been rumored to be throwing around the idea of sending Cantu and Gomes to the minors for the start of the season.

Cantu and Gomes will dominate AAA.

AA numbers are just as accurate in predicting AAA production as major league numbe..... oh, wait. What about BJ Upton!!! That guy tore up A ball!!!

Just kidding, nobody get their panties in a bunch.

But seriously, if the Rays are considering sending either of these two to the minors based on spring training production, well then that speaks volumes of their front office.

[SilentJames]

It doesn't help when the DRays haven't been able to score all spring training. They have been rumored to be throwing around the idea of sending Cantu and Gomes to the minors for the start of the season.

Meh you can't look at spring training numbers in a vacuum like that, and TB would be foolish to do what the rumor says.

But the "just you wait and see TB is gonna pass us," argument is getting so tired. Last year that groups of kids scored less than 700 runs.

PECOTA projects them to increase that output by almost 120 runs? that is not just improvement, that is a downright shocking turnaround. who injects this life? Delmon Young? Possibly. The cat from Japan?(points if you tell me the song.) Im not sold on that.

Baldelli is more likely to get hurt again and carry a nagging injury that will hamstring his offensive season. I love Baldelli, but he is becoming more like the CURRENT Ken Griffey Jr, as opposed to the YOUNG Ken Griffey Jr. You are going to have Carl Crawford, quite possibly the second best outfielder in baseball right now. But then there is Gomes. Who I feel is more Jay Gibbons than Manny Ramierez.

Now, maybe they do all put it together and have a better offense. But until they show me something, I will always have my doubts.

wow SG, I knew what you were going to say before you said it. And I agree with you, they SHOULD be good. But until they ARE good, there will always be doubts.

Would I love to have Baldelli and Gomes? Yes I would. Baldelli is young enough to overcome the injury bug still. And Gomes is still improving.

But PECOTA is giving them a TON of improvement next year that I feel is over their head.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree with Frobby that 754 seems ridiculously low for this team. Even with its spring training troubles, 754? And Tampa Bay's output increasing almost 120 runs? Really?

Ridiculously low? My best guess for this team is about 780 runs. Tweak their projections for Markakis (which Silver already suggested doing) and Roberts (I think PECOTA has him low because of a fluke in the system) and 780 seems realistic.

I don't see a 50-run gain from a team that only has two starters under 30 and some serious OBP holes. There's a chance LF/CF will be 1100 ABs of Patterson and Payton, with 40 walks.

[El Gordo]

Interesting that PECOTA predicts evey one of our starters to decline except Markakis who just treads water. If we just win 74 this year the only man left standuing will be Angelos IMO.

[SilentJames]

Ridiculously low? My best guess for this team is about 780 runs. Tweak their projections for Markakis (which Silver already suggested doing) and Roberts (I think PECOTA has him low because of a fluke in the system) and 780 seems realistic.

I don't see a 50-run gain from a team that only has two starters under 30 and some serious OBP holes. There's a chance LF/CF will be 1100 ABs of Patterson and Payton, with 40 walks.

Thats fine, but do you honestly see a 120 run gain coming from the Devil rays over last year?

Do you honestly think that we will only have one pitcher with double digit wins? Do you honestly think that Ray will only net 25 saves?

[DrungoHazewood]

PECOTA projects them to increase that output by almost 120 runs? that is not just improvement, that is a downright shocking turnaround. who injects this life? Delmon Young? Possibly. The cat from Japan?(points if you tell me the song.) Im not sold on that.

And what kind of team is most likely to have a great leap forward? A young, talented team. The Rays' oldest projected regular is Iwamura, who's 28. He'd be the Orioles' second-youngest.

The O's have to stave off aging for a year to have a good offense. The Rays just have to get normal progression from young players. Almost their whole lineup is what we assume from Nick Markakis - young, talented, and bound to improve by 10% or 15% without even trying.

[DrungoHazewood]

Do you honestly think that we will only have one pitcher with double digit wins? Do you honestly think that Ray will only net 25 saves?

Wins and saves for individuals are irrelevant. I think if BP wasn't trying to sell books they wouldn't even list them because they're so subject to random variations. They actually project good growth out of the O's staff, a 70-run improvement over 2006. Just not the exponential growth that's necessary for contention.

[erb8472]

If this is true, we should be seeing if we can get Gomes for 20 cents on the dollar.

Jonny Gomes homered off A.J. Burnett and Tomo Ohka to lead the Rays past the Jays 5-4 in a rain-shortened game Saturday.

Gomes could be the Rays' best hitter this year, but first he needs to earn his way back into the starting lineup. The Tampa Bay papers have speculated that Greg Norton could get the nod over him at DH on Opening Day. Hopefully, that just serves to make him come cheaper on draft day.

That's what I found on rotoworld. That was from March 3rd which was a while ago. I'll see if I can find more.

[SilentJames]

And what kind of team is most likely to have a great leap forward? A young, talented team. The Rays' oldest projected regular is Iwamura, who's 28. He'd be the Orioles' second-youngest.

The O's have to stave off aging for a year to have a good offense. The Rays just have to get normal progression from young players. Almost their whole lineup is what we assume from Nick Markakis - young, talented, and bound to improve by 10% or 15% without even trying.

Yes, and I say again. How long have we all been waiting for that great leap forward?

The Orioles are older, yeah sure. But its not like they are rushing out geriatric patients out there.

That nearly every single starter will decline?

[Sports Guy]

Yes, and I say again. How long have we all been waiting for that great leap forward?

The Orioles are older, yeah sure. But its not like they are rushing out geriatric patients out there.

That nearly every single starter will decline?

Not that long, if you were a reasonable fan.

With Young and Upton not here yet and guys like Gomes and Baldelli hurt, you shouldn't have figured on a huge jump in production over the last few years.

[erb8472]

D-Rays New Lineup

New-look lineup

Manager Joe Maddon created a new top of the order, moving Carl Crawford back to the leadoff spot, elevating Ben Zobrist to second and dropping Rocco Baldelli from leadoff to third, and may tinker further with the bottom five:

1. Carl Crawford lf

2. Ben Zobrist ss

3. Rocco Baldelli cf

4. Ty Wigginton 1b

5. Greg Norton dh

6. Jorge Cantu 2b

7. Delmon Young rf

8. Akinori Iwamura 3b

9. Josh Paul c

[Sports Guy]

SJ, did you know that TB scored 21 more runs than the O's in 2005?