PECOTA takes on standings

[erb8472]

If you could combined the Orioles and D-Rays you'd have a darn good team.

[erb8472]

If this is true, we should be seeing if we can get Gomes for 20 cents on the dollar.

I'm guessing his value hasn't gone down any in their opinion they just want him to go down and work on some things.

That being said, would you trade Penn for him?

[nadecir]

Well, they got 4 of the 6 division winners right...After that, it was pretty much way off.

Actually PECOTA last year predicted every team except the Indians, Astros, Cubs and Reds within one spot of their eventual place in the final division standings.

In the AL West, not only did PECOTA pick the correct standings, they predicted the A's, and the Rangers win totals dead-on, and they were only one off on the Mariners win total for the season.

Given PECOTA can't predict in season trades or injuries, the last year predictions seem pretty darn good to me.

For every team in the major, PECOTA projected them within 12 wins of their actual win total. The average difference of projection to actual wins was about 5 wins.

[Sports Guy]

Actually PECOTA last year predicted every team except the Indians, Astros, Cubs and Reds within one spot of their eventual place in the final division standings.

In the AL West, not only did PECOTA pick the correct standings, they predicted the A's, and the Rangers win totals dead-on, and they were only one off on the Mariners win total for the season.

Given PECOTA can't predict in season trades or injuries, the last year predictions seem pretty darn good to me.

For every team in the major, PECOTA projected them within 12 wins of their actual win total. The average difference of projection to actual wins was about 5 wins.

Big deal! I bet you could do the same thing here on the hangout.

[DrungoHazewood]

You also have to remember they have an astonishing amount of young depth. If Norton or Wigginton go down, they're not plugging in Chris Gomez, they're plugging in BJ Upton and Elijah Dukes. If Josh Paul doesn't hit they aren't falling back on Paul Bako, they have 25-year-old Dioner Navarro, who might be better than Paul anyway. If Iwamura crashes they have Evan Longoria, who might be major league ready at 21.

[erb8472]

Actually PECOTA last year predicted every team except the Indians, Astros, Cubs and Reds within one spot of their eventual place in the final division standings.

In the AL West, not only did PECOTA pick the correct standings, they predicted the A's, and the Rangers win totals dead-on, and they were only one off on the Mariners win total for the season.

Given PECOTA can't predict in season trades or injuries, the last year predictions seem pretty darn good to me.

For every team in the major, PECOTA projected them within 12 wins of their actual win total. The average difference of projection to actual wins was about 5 wins.

Before we refer to PECOTA as psychic I'd prefer to see how they did in the past also. Remember a blind hog will find an acorn every now and then.

[SilentJames]

SJ, did you know that TB scored 21 more runs than the O's in 2005?

Yes I DID know that SG. But my point is that PECOTA is predicting a 120 run improvement over last year. And that, to me, seems rather extreme.

That is all.

[erb8472]

You also have to remember they have an astonishing amount of young depth. If Norton or Wigginton go down, they're not plugging in Chris Gomez, they're plugging in BJ Upton and Elijah Dukes. If Josh Paul doesn't hit they aren't falling back on Paul Bako, they have 25-year-old Dioner Navarro, who might be better than Paul anyway. If Iwamura crashes they have Evan Longoria, who might be major league ready at 21.

Well we'll have Fahey, Bynum, Bako, and Gomez.

[El Gordo]

If you could combined the Orioles and D-Rays you'd have a darn good team.

If you took just one OF from Tampa Bay the O's would be near contention. Imagine Crawford, Baldelli or even Young in our OF. For Tampa Bay to improve they need our entire pitching staff

[nadecir]

Anyone who thinks that can do better than PECOTA can in predicting performance should publish their own projection systems. They can certainly make some money if they can do a better job on a yearly basis at projecting individual performance of players or teams.

My guess is that those who don't like PECOTA as a system just don't like what it predicts.

Those who throw stones at the system should consider taking a graduate statistics course. These systems are based on computerized regression analysis over a large data set for a long period of time. The systems may not be accurate enough in their predictions for some people, but PECOTA is certainly one of the best predictors around when it comes to baseball.

[erb8472]

If you took just one OF from Tampa Bay the O's would be near contention. Imagine Crawford, Baldelli or even Young in our OF. For Tampa Bay to improve they need our entire pitching staff

Give me Crawford Young and Kazmir and we'll call it even.

[erb8472]

Anyone who thinks that can do better than PECOTA can in predicting performance should publish their own projection systems. They can certainly make some money if they can do a better job on a yearly basis at projecting individual performance of players or teams.

My guess is that those who don't like PECOTA as a system just don't like what it predicts.

Those who throw stones at the system should consider taking a graduate statistics course. These systems are based on computerized regression analysis over a large data set for a long period of time. The systems may not be accurate enough in their predictions for some people, but PECOTA is certainly one of the best predictors around when it comes to baseball.

I'm not throwing stones.

I've taken statistics, and just from analyzing PECOTA I think they tend to play it safe quite a bit with their projections.

[SilentJames]

Anyone who thinks that can do better than PECOTA can in predicting performance should publish their own projection systems. They can certainly make some money if they can do a better job on a yearly basis at projecting individual performance of players or teams.

My guess is that those who don't like PECOTA as a system just don't like what it predicts.

Those who throw stones at the system should consider taking a graduate statistics course. These systems are based on computerized regression analysis over a large data set for a long period of time. The systems may not be accurate enough in their predictions for some people, but PECOTA is certainly one of the best predictors around when it comes to baseball.

I'm sure it is. Trust me a lot of this stuff is over my head. See Im a history teacher, I look at the world with a more anectdotal sense of reality - I guess you could say. I'm not all about the numbers.

So if PECOTA says something, sure I take it into account. But I think it is short changing us a little bit. Roberts will be 100% again, Miggy now has some protection. Huff is a better hitter than last year's numbers. Gibbons out of the outfield should keep him healthier and more productive, etc. etc. etc.

And COULD the DRays rattle off 120 more runs? Sure why not, they have a ton of young talent. But forgive me for being just a wee bit skeptical at that prediction.

Now in two years, could TB REALLY be a team to watch out for, if they keep that young talent together? Yes, yes they should. i just don't see that great leap coming this year, all at once.

[bgfield]

You can give PECOTA all the credibility you want. Their estimation that we'll be a measly four games better than last year isn't giving us as much credit as we deserve.

[erb8472]

We can argue about this all we want. The bottom line is PECOTA is a prediction. It's viewed as one of the more accurate predictions.

Just like PECOTA has their prediction, I have my own opinion.