Gray Fenter Signs for a Million

[weams]

I'm hoping we didn't just give $1M to a seventh rounder who we grade as a fifth round talent, after trying to save $ on our supplemental first and third founders. That would not make much sense - at least to me.

I am probably being too conservative. He was not thought to be an easy sign.

[weams]

http://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/AR/One-Crazy-Summer-For-Gray-Fenter-0291845736

http://www.scout.com/college/mississippi-state/story/1437381-class-of-2015-rhp-gray-fenter-talks-msu

http://www.drafttotheshow.com/top-15-in-15-high-school-pitchers/

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[Stotle]

I was respecting your opinion as usual. I think that an A ball pitcher could be worth 10 million. Is this the one?

Best case scenario he hits his upside and is Justin Verlander for six years -- about 20-22 wins.

Mid-case he is a #4 or a set-up man for six years -- maybe 7-10 wins.

Worst case he is Daniel Cabrera replacement level -- 0 wins.

What would you pay for the first six years of Verlander's career? What would you pay for a couple years of #5 production and then three or four years of 7th/8th inning power arm?

Assign likelihood to those outcomes, multiply by value of the production for those outcomes and you get a very rough ballpark.

[weams]

Best case scenario he hits his upside and is Justin Verlander for six years -- about 20-22 wins.

Mid-case he is a #4 or a set-up man for six years -- maybe 7-10 wins.

Worst case he is Daniel Cabrera replacement level -- 0 wins.

What would you pay for the first six years of Verlander's career? What would you pay for a couple years of #5 production and then three or four years of 7th/8th inning power arm?

Assign likelihood to those outcomes, multiply by value of the production for those outcomes and you get a very rough ballpark.

Very good input as usual. When I looked at the 538 analysis of the NBA draft, most of the top 50 players had less than a 10 percent chance of hitting their ceiling. The chance of a middling result was 20 to 30 percent. A poor result was ~40 and ~25 to 30 of a wash out.

Poor result would be in baseball terms a Pedro Beato career or a Loewen. A wash out is Matt Hobgood or Jason Esposito or Bill Rowell.

I do not think you are stating that the chances in baseball of a kid in A ball are much different than Nate Silver figures for the more predictable NBA are you?

[Ruzious]

So Toussaint IS really worth Ten Million? Wow. I had no idea.

Remember, Arroyo is expected back around August 1st. If the Braves are still in it then, he could be a big help down the stretch.

I think you'd have to do a lot of searching to find a Braves fan who isn't happy about acquiring Toussaint on his 19th birthday.

[weams]

Remember, Arroyo is expected back around August 1st. If the Braves are still in it then, he could be a big help down the stretch.

I think you'd have to do a lot of searching to find a Braves fan who isn't happy about acquiring Toussaint on his 19th birthday.

Oh I'm sure they are. It only cost money. I can't see Arroyo ever helping.

[MrOrange82]

But the Orioles are cheap

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The O's aren't cheap. They're paying Norris $8.8 million, Hunter $4.6 million, Matusz $3.2 million...heck, and that's without even considering the position players. The O's have a middle-of-the-pack payroll that represents an adequate level of spending. They just do it very, very stupidly.