Our pending free agents

[weams]

Some posters seem to not appreciate the impact that Boras will have in the O's ability to resign his clients this off season. It won't be easy at all.

First, chances that we resign all 3 of them (even if we want to) is just about zero percent. They will all be more expensive, guaranteed.

Chances of signing one out of the three are better, but not a ton. Boras always uncompromisingly wants top dollar for his clients (indeed, that is usually the top priority of the players who employ him) so forget about loyalty or hometown discounts. Some team wants to pay a mere five percent more for any of these guys than the Orioles want to pay, and they are as good as gone. The Orioles probably feel like they have plans going forward and replacements in mind on the strong chance they don't resign these guys.

This is a very sensible post that is well thought out. I'm not sure that our payroll going to stay where it is next season.

[Rojo13]

Bringing back all of the arbitration eligible players except Matusz (Tillman, Gonzalez, Britton, Snider and Flaherty) and basing their salaries on the standard 40/60/80 ballpark estimates results in a bump of about $7 million.

Can someone explain to me how Chris Tillman would be getting a raise in aribration? He's been awful.

Yes I know arbitration almost always guarantees you a raise but how is your base value set?

A logical person would say no way did Chris Davis deserve a raise Last year, his pproduction was basically 50% of the year beofre. He went from hitting 53 homers/138 rbis to hitting 26 homers and 72 rbis and yet his salary was increased from $10 to $12 million.

Does anyone ever stay the same or go down? I'd think Tillman and Davis would deserve paycuts.

[wildcard]

2016 Payroll Estimate

1) 17m Wieters - C (5/88m plus a one year option at 17M/3m buyout)

2) 16.3m Jones - CF

3) 13m Jimenez - SP1

4) 12.5m Hardy - SS

5) 7m O'Day - RP1 (3/21m)

6) 7m Tillman - SP2 *

7) 5.5m Machado - 3B*

8) 5.5m Gonzalez - SP3*

9) 4.5m Britton - RP2*

10) 3.2m Snider - LF*

11) 2m Reimold - OF*

12) 2m Parmelee - 1B*

13) 1.52m Brach*

14) 1.5m Flaherty - UIF*

15) 1.5m Vladimir Guerrero (deferred compensation)

16) 1m Lough - OF*

17) .53m Gausman - SP4

18) .52m Schoop - 2B

19) .52m Joseph - C (shared)

20) .52m Givens - RP4

21) .51m Bundy - RP5

22) .51m Paredes - DH/1B BC

23) .51m Alvarez - RF

24) .51m Roe - RP6

25) .51m Wilson - SP5

26) .51m Cabral - RP7

Sub Total 106.17m of earned salary

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Total 101.92m salaries to be paid in 2016

130m-101.92 = 25.08m

* denotes arbitration eligible

It has been reported the 6.5M of Hardy's contract is deferred but no word yet on how it is distributed of the contract term.

[MurphDogg]

Can someone explain to me how Chris Tillman would be getting a raise in aribration? He's been awful.

Yes I know arbitration almost always guarantees you a raise but how is your base value set?

A logical person would say no way did Chris Davis deserve a raise Last year, his pproduction was basically 50% of the year beofre. He went from hitting 53 homers/138 rbis to hitting 26 homers and 72 rbis and yet his salary was increased from $10 to $12 million.

Does anyone ever stay the same or go down? I'd think Tillman and Davis would deserve paycuts.

Basically, the general rule is 40/60/80, that players earn approximately 40 percent of their free agent value their first time through arbitration, 60 percent the second time and 80 percent the third time. Under the general rule, Davis would have earned $13.3 million this season, because he had a mediocre year last year, he only got a 20 percent raise instead of a 33 percent raise.

Your base value is set the first time you go through arbitration, which is why it was there was so much interest in Britton specifically, because if he had gotten the $4.2 million he had requested as a Super 2, he would have almost no surplus value by his fourth or even third time through arbitration if he continued to be a shutdown closer.

Everybody gets a raise. The closest parallel to Tillman from 2014 is probably A.J. Ellis. Ellis was coming off two seasons where he had been worth 3.5 fWAR and 2.2 fWAR and earned $3.55 million. Ellis then proceeded to put up a .191/.323/.254/.577 batting line and -0.6 fWAR. His reward was a bump to $4.25 million, a 20 percent raise, just like Chris Davis got. If Tillman were to only get a 20 percent raise instead of the 50 percent raise I had calculated, he would go from making $4.315M to $5.178M instead of $6.4725M. He won't be getting a paycut.

[MurphDogg]

2016 Payroll Estimate

1) 17m Wieters - C (5/88m plus a one year option at 17M/3m buyout)

2) 16.3m Jones - CF

3) 13m Jimenez - SP1

4) 12.5m Hardy - SS

5) 7m O'Day - RP1 (3/21m)

6) 7m Tillman - SP2

7) 5.5m Machado - 3B

8) 5.5m Gonzalez - SP3

9) 4.5m Britton - RP2

10) 3.2m Snider - LF

11) 2m Reimold - OF

12) 2m Parmelee - 1B

13) 1.5m Flaherty - UIF

14) 1.5m Vladimir Guerrero (deferred compensation)

15) 1m Lough - OF

16) .53m Gausman - SP4

17) .52m Schoop - 2B

18) .52m Joseph - C (shared)

19) .52m Brach - RP3

20) .52m Givens - RP4

21) .51m Bundy - RP5

22) .51m Paredes - DH/1B BC

23) .51m Alvarez - RF

24) .51m Roe - RP6

25) .51m Wilson - SP5

26) .51m Cabral - RP7

Sub Total 105.17m of earned salary

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Total 100.92m salaries to be paid in 2016

130m-100.42 = 29.58m

It has been reported the 6.5M of Hardy's contract is deferred but no word yet on how it is distributed of the contract term.

Always good to have the full list, though I would indicate in some way which numbers are arbitration estimates.

[ChuckS]

With the heavy-handed tactics of our front office, you'd have to wonder if Machado would even consider an extension at this point.

I do agree with you. If Machado is open to it, he should be THE priority.

I would like to see another full season of health from Machado before I offered him any crazy extension. That's just me though. 8/200 is the kind of contract it would probably take to lock him up if he continues playing at an All-Star level.

[wildcard]

Always good to have the full list, though I would indicate in some way which numbers are arbitration estimates.

Done as your requested.

[Ripken]

Done as you requested.

Give Manny a long term deal and sign Upton (trade Snider).

[El Gordo]

Give Manny a long term deal and sign Upton (trade Snider).

That's at least 30 M in addition for next year.

[MurphDogg]

That's at least 30 M in addition for next year.

If Machado signed the Trout deal, he would get $10.25 million next season, probably $2-4 million more than what he would get in arbitration. There is no way Upton will make $25+ million more than Snider next year. Not sure how you could get to $30 million more.

[El Gordo]

If Machado signed the Trout deal, he would get $10.25 million next season, probably $2-4 million more than what he would get in arbitration. There is no way Upton will make $25+ million more than Snider next year. Not sure how you could get to $30 million more.

20 M for Upton and 10 M for Manny. Simply saying that is how much you will be paying for them next year. Don't know what Snider would have to do with it. Manny could get more than 10 if he signs an extension.

[backwardsk]

20 M for Upton and 10 M for Manny. Simply saying that is how much you will be paying for them next year. Don't know what Snider would have to do with it. Manny could get more than 10 if he signs an extension.

Or less. Kyle Seager extended for 7/100 and makes 4.5M. They could structure something very enticing to Manny and keep his 2016 salary in the 6-9M range. The poster talked about trading Snider when signing Upton, so you back away 3M-ish for that. Doing those moves, based off of Wildcard's forecast would put payroll around $125.

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[Ripken]

20 M for Upton and 10 M for Manny. Simply saying that is how much you will be paying for them next year. Don't know what Snider would have to do with it. Manny could get more than 10 if he signs an extension.

Right. That's $30. And I suggested Snider would be out with Upton in.

So, $30 minus the $5.5 he had for Manny already and the $3.5 he had for Snider. So, that's $21 more... and a total $121. We can do that.

[weams]

So, that's $21 more... and a total $121. We can do that.

Did someone tell you that? Are you the judge's law clerk?

[sfosfan]

It's not a good idea to see all relievers, including O'Day as replaceable machine parts. O'Day is someone special and we need to at least try to retain him.

Ditto. We don't need another Andrew Miller coming back to bite us. Having two guys to shut down the 8th and 9th is huge.