Would you sign Manny for 11/$231 mm?

[weams]

There's nothing about terms in there.

And there's absolutely nothing to suggest Manny walked away a "few minutes before" a deal was signed.

The things he's saying are just not fact.

Sorry if that offends him or anyone else.

Sorry I took offense. I heard Dan Duquette say with his onw voice that they thought they had an extension that fell apart at the last minute. He never said "Manny walked away from a deal" Fact now. Facts..

[weams]

Trout and Harper won't even get $40 million/year on the open market unless the money is heavily deferred.

Deferred money is still money. Especially when you make less than 1% on all of your investments. Now, I am not talking about casino gambling in the stock market. I'm talking principle protected.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I am all for a Manny extension. At this point, I've been told that the Orioles are not interested in any player on an opt out. Might be an error, but what they have said. Maybe after Dan leaves.

Sans opt out, what levers do they have available to pull in order to make a deal happen? Lengthen the term well beyond decline? Make it a ten year deal for absurd money with the cash paid over twenty years?

[weams]

Sans opt out, what levers do they have available to pull in order to make a deal happen? Lengthen the term well beyond decline? Make it a ten year deal for absurd money with the cash paid over twenty years?

With his age, I'd support an AAV of 33 for 12 years with no opt outs. I really do not care how long it takes for the Angelos family to pay it out. Then commission the statue by Toby while he is still interested in doing it.

It looks like this.

[BohKnowsBmore]

With his age, I'd support an AAV of 33 for 12 year with no opt outs. I really do not care how long it takes for the Angelos family to pay it out.

I wasn't implying that those were potentially unreasonable suggestions. I was just asking practically how you think the FO could convince him to extend absent an opt out clause.

[weams]

I wasn't implying that those were potentially unreasonable suggestions. I was just asking practically how you think the FO could convince him to extend absent an opt out clause.

I'd suggest they can't. And won't offer an opt out. I'd suggest that anything short of a 350 million dollar contract won't be negotiated on Manny's side.

[Pickles]

Maybe someday the Orioles will be forced to offer an opt out.

If they want to keep Manny, which should be there highest priority, I'd suggest that they will be forced.

[Pickles]

Dan may be saying it but no opt out sounds more like Peter to me. If you can't do it give him a 5 year deal that gives him what he could expect to get for his first 3 years of FA and more than he could expect for his last two years of arb. Then at age 29 he can test the FA market as if he had an opt out. 20, 25, 30, 35 , 40, FA. Maybe he would bite.

I assume his agent would leap on that in a NY minute, as he makes more money under your suggestion in the next 5 years than he will otherwise, and still hits FA before 30.

[El Gordo]

I assume his agent would leap on that in a NY minute, as he makes more money under your suggestion in the next 5 years than he will otherwise, and still hits FA before 30.

That's the idea. We get him for 5 years instead to two more after this. If you included the opt out plus another 5 at 40 M you might get him for less during the arb years.

[Pickles]

That's the idea. We get him for 5 years instead to two more after this. If you included the opt out plus another 5 at 40 M you might get him for less during the arb years.

Fair enough.

I thnk he'd definitely sign that for reasons given.

I also think he'd probably sign something cheaper.

[Can_of_corn]

Count me in the minority of those that would prefer not to extend Manny. He is incredible and is already a superstar at a young age. But with the numbers that are being thrown around here, I'd rather not incur that much risk. 35M, 40M AAV's are rediculous, bubble like numbers. I think some of us are so fearful of losing his production after 2018 that we would cash in the kids's college funds, reverse mortgage the house, etc., just to keep him.

I'd much rather forego the risk and trade him after we win the World Series this year for a haul that we can rebuild/reload around.

Manny at 300 is, in my mind, a better bet than Davis at 161.

Of course if you didn't like that deal either, I can respect that.

[calmunderfire]

I assume his agent would leap on that in a NY minute, as he makes more money under your suggestion in the next 5 years than he will otherwise, and still hits FA before 30.

I would prefer to hit FA at 26 instead of 29. That's quite a big difference.

[calmunderfire]

What people just don't get is that he's set to hit FA right after his age 25 season. That's very abnormal. If we accept that players generally peak at age 27 and plateau from about 25-30ish then the team who signs who essentially gets his entire prime of his career. Which simply does not happen in the MLB because it takes 7 years to hit FA.

"But he's not Mike Trout or Bryce Harper". Correct, no he's not. However, he's trending in that direction and even if he doesn't reach the whole 9-10 win player type production thing he's trending in that direction and should approach that level of production. Additionally, neither of them have hit FA at 26 and when Harper does (he will) it will take close to or in excess of $50 million AAV.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I would prefer to hit FA at 26 instead of 29. That's quite a big difference.

Well, he would get the LT money guaranteed now. There is more potential for the market to change from now through 5 years down the line vs. 2, so in some ways being able to hit at 29 should he so choose is the better option than waiting it out and hitting at 26. Also, keep in mind that the "market at 29" proposition is for a third contract so to speak, so it's not really apples-apples re: hitting the market at 26. If he hits at 26 and gets an opt out in his new deal, he'd hit again at 31 for his third contact, which isn't potentially as value-maximizing as re-hitting the market at 29 was.

[calmunderfire]

Well, he would get the LT money guaranteed now. There is more potential for the market to change from now through 5 years down the line vs. 2, so in some ways being able to hit at 29 should he so choose is the better option than waiting it out and hitting at 26. Also, keep in mind that the "market at 29" proposition is for a third contract so to speak, so it's not really apples-apples re: hitting the market at 26. If he hits at 26 and gets an opt out in his new deal, he'd hit again at 31 for his third contact, which isn't potentially as value-maximizing as re-hitting the market at 29 was.

Bryce Harper will set the market in 2018. If Bryce was a FA in 2020 for example then I could see you're point. But he's not. He'll shatter the contract records in 2018 at which Machado depending on how good he is relative to Harper by that point will fall in line contract wise.