Would you sign Manny for 11/$231 mm?

[clapdiddy]

I would do this deal immediately.

[Guest rochester]

I said wait until the end of the year because I just want to make sure that he can make it through. The risk afterward can be offset by insurance. I just can't agree with the "let him walk" thought process - we can't just assume superstars (which Manny will be if healthy) can be replaced for less money - it's a dangerous game that will lead to too many rebuilds - although overpaying can as well.

[Redskins Rick]

I said wait until the end of the year because I just want to make sure that he can make it through. The risk afterward can be offset by insurance. I just can't agree with the "let him walk" thought process - we can't just assume superstars (which Manny will be if healthy) can be replaced for less money - it's a dangerous game that will lead to too many rebuilds - although overpaying can as well.

pretty sure, nobody is covered by insurance anymore, because of the high cost to obtain the policies.

[Larry18]

pretty sure, nobody is covered by insurance anymore, because of the high cost to obtain the policies.

According to this article, Max Scherzer paid $750K for a one year $40M policy. That works out to less than 2% of the insured value. What I have heard (not read, simply rumored, is that insurance companies won't insure more than the first 4 years)

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/max-scherzer-reveals-details-of-injury-insurance-policy-195328259.html

[Can_of_corn]

According to this article, Max Scherzer paid $750K for a one year $40M policy. That works out to less than 2% of the insured value. What I have heard (not read, simply rumored, is that insurance companies won't insure more than the first 4 years)

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/max-scherzer-reveals-details-of-injury-insurance-policy-195328259.html

It isn't going to be one insurance company for that large an amount. Several companies will share the risk.

[Redskins Rick]

According to this article, Max Scherzer paid $750K for a one year $40M policy. That works out to less than 2% of the insured value. What I have heard (not read, simply rumored, is that insurance companies won't insure more than the first 4 years)

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/max-scherzer-reveals-details-of-injury-insurance-policy-195328259.html

So Scherzer took it out. Makes sense for the player to do this.

I believe that the teams are no longer wishing to invest money into insurance policies.

[osfan83]

20 years from now Manny will be going into the Hall of Fame..the only question is, what uniform will he be wearing?

[Stotle]

According to this article, Max Scherzer paid $750K for a one year $40M policy. That works out to less than 2% of the insured value. What I have heard (not read, simply rumored, is that insurance companies won't insure more than the first 4 years)

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/max-scherzer-reveals-details-of-injury-insurance-policy-195328259.html

It isn't going to be one insurance company for that large an amount. Several companies will share the risk.

So Scherzer took it out. Makes sense for the player to do this.

I believe that the teams are no longer wishing to invest money into insurance policies.

Different issues, right? Scherzer was paying for SOME coverage in case he got injured and was put into a difficult position while trying to negotiate his next deal. It's covering risk of loss in future earnings under a yet-to-be-negotiated deal. The coverage is for a one year period, with the $40 million assumedly meant to bridge some of the gap between what turned out to be 7/$210 MM and, had he missed a chunk of time during his year leading up to FA, what might of been only a 5/$100 MM with options, or a 1/$15 MM to reestablish value followed by 5/$140 MM with an option, or whatever.

Teams looking to insure a contract have to ask for coverage over multiple years and for a much larger amount. The premium is much much higher because 1) there is a much greater level of uncertainty as to the future condition of the player vs. the player's present condition, and 2) the total amount insured is much much larger.

I'm sure those distinctions are obvious but what can I say, I like stating the obvious.

[jtschrei]

If there was ever a player to do this contract for, Manny is it. I think his future raises the big question: what type of organization do the Orioles want to be? One where we let hall of famers just leave for another team -- most likely the Yankees -- while we depend on our farm system to replenish (a la the A's and Drays). OR Are we an organization where we say, this guy is special. He is worth the risk to the franchise and the history of the club to the keep him here.

I think I know the answer ... unfortunately.

[weams]

Different issues, right? Scherzer was paying for SOME coverage in case he got injured and was put into a difficult position while trying to negotiate his next deal. It's covering risk of loss in future earnings under a yet-to-be-negotiated deal. The coverage is for a one year period, with the $40 million assumedly meant to bridge some of the gap between what turned out to be 7/$210 MM and, had he missed a chunk of time during his year leading up to FA, what might of been only a 5/$100 MM with options, or a 1/$15 MM to reestablish value followed by 5/$140 MM with an option, or whatever.

Teams looking to insure a contract have to ask for coverage over multiple years and for a much larger amount. The premium is much much higher because 1) there is a much greater level of uncertainty as to the future condition of the player vs. the player's present condition, and 2) the total amount insured is much much larger.

I'm sure those distinctions are obvious but what can I say, I like stating the obvious.

I understood it. Good explanation.

[Frobby]

If there was ever a player to do this contract for, Manny is it. I think his future raises the big question: what type of organization do the Orioles want to be? One where we let hall of famers just leave for another team -- most likely the Yankees -- while we depend on our farm system to replenish (a la the A's and Drays). OR Are we an organization where we say, this guy is special. He is worth the risk to the franchise and the history of the club to the keep him here.

I think I know the answer ... unfortunately.

To me, Manny is a very special case. Whatever rules we applied to everybody else, shouldn't be applied to him. He'll be so young when he is FA eligible that you really are buying his prime years, not his decline years. And he's the best player we've had since Cal, in my opinion. You've either got to sign him or trade him for a king's ransom in another year or two -- but I would hate to do the latter.

[CA-ORIOLE]

My assumption is the knee is good. so yes. Rather spend the money there than on Wieter's. I think a 6/7 year might better for the team and perhaps a good sell to Manny as well.

[MurphDogg]

I am copy/pasting this first paragraph from another thread:

11 years is a long time and Machado would be leaving money on the table if he ends up as good as we think he will be. I think a 6-7 year deal is more likely so he can get another huge contract before he is 30. That said, as long as there isn't an opt out on Manny's end, it would be the upper limit of what I was ok with. I really don't care for the opt out, as it keeps the team on the hook if a player falls off a cliff but prevents them from getting any excess value if the player actually lives up to the contract.

Frankly, I don't think Manny would sign an 11-year deal without an opt out. If he did I would be ok with this deal. I think Manny will either go year-to-year, sign a 4-6 year deal that allows him to hit free agency before his age 30 season so he can sign another huge deal, or sign a deal like this only if there was an opt out to allow him to get paid again if he outperformed it, with the Orioles being stuck if he was mediocre.

[WEAVERMAN]

I would wait until 2017 and see where we are. A decision will have to be made in 2017, no later but earlier is premature, imo. And I love MM.

[Tx Oriole]

When I clicked I could only see "would you sign Manny for" and I knew right away I would say yes.

11/231 is very risky, but everything about him screams future Hall of Famer. We may even look back on that deal in 5-8 years and laugh at the bargain we got.

I think it is too risky.